Member Info for Silverblade

Good to see a bit of positive momentum over last week or so...…..I'm almost scared to post in case I jinx it! I was having a look at Renx LinkedIn pages - quite a few recent senior hires and 4 current opportunities - director level and medical liaison - so looks like FDA has been a major catalyst. I also came across the following comment which emanated directly from Renx following the Vector Pharma deal " They say good things come in threes. First, Real World Evidence study results. Second, FDA De Novo Marketing Authorization. And now, third, the start of international distribution. We're on a recent roll. Just wait to see what the next three are...because they're coming." Since then we have heard about the clinical advisory board and KDIGO 2023 guideline - but my impression is there is bigger news due soon. GLA. SB

Quite a deal Hawker - just shows the appetite for the ever growing Life Sciences market. You would like to think that a forward multiple of 15+ should generally be achievable for this sector. One of the biggest issues here relates to the holding of Harwood - who remain a 29+% shareholder but below the 30% required to make an offer. They are essentially in control of the business who could make or break any deal - should such a day occur. As for a re-rating - perhaps nearly 8 months after removing our former CEO the business might think about a replacement...…probably worth getting someone in who can count as well. Perhaps the business is being touted for sale and we don't need a new team...…maybe we will get a proper update next month - management, fermenter customers, cost controls, strategy to recover lost shareholder value.....SB

At last a move in the right direction donmac - we will take that any day of the week! Here's hoping AIM can turn the tide tomorrow as well - and there is further news on the horizon that shows some real commercial uptake which would be the game changer required. SB

According to latest report as referred to in todays RNS / NAV is based on very conservative valuations - almost at the very bottom of assumptions. If they priced at upper end of valuation assumptions NAV is c.£1.30 - close to price where there was a premium to NAV 18 months or so ago. So approaching a 50% discount in a best case scenario. The markets are no longer acting in any coherent fashion - 400k shares bought back today and we lose £15m in value. What happens when interest rates go up again….and perhaps one more? SB

Highest discount to NAV in sector, highest yield in sector, constantly in decline versus peer group despite attempts by management to stabilise with analytical reports, share buy backs and even major corporate activity. Baffling - and getting to a point where its beyond ridiculous. SB

Apologies for the wording in my earlier post - I can see how it appeared to confuse the FDA approval which was of course granted in June. I think I meant that the approval should have unlocked the sales - but it’s too early for any meaningful data so let’s wait for an actual update. It’s been quite a week all round in uk shares - and not in a good way! Maybe we will have a donmac Friday in the US! Cheers. SB

Thanks unhooked - good to chat - always appreciate your updates and hawker, donmac and other regular posters. Yes I'm certainly suffering a bit of jadedness (perhaps you could ask Rachel Riley if that is indeed a word...) - although I guess that is perhaps more polite than how I actually feel!! I'm still invested here, VRCI and EKF - strangely enough with similar number of shares in each - although RENX largest by capex position. Glad to hear you have managed to trade some upside - I have averaged down all three stocks but am not prepared to go any further. I thought by spreading my health investment I would reduce my risk - lol. VRCI just about breakeven - others miles off. If RENX can sell tests in any decent numbers the reality is your purchase of c.£4 should be easily achieved and much more - even assuming some major dilution later this year - such is the opportunity. On the face of it the logic to test and treat early stage rather than wait for the inevitable heavy cost later seems compelling - but the nature of short term budget decision making is currently outweighing that rationale. It seems crazy - but its not a unique position. Many of us put off making a financial commitment just in case we don't actually need to go through with it. RENX has tens of millions of life's covered under insurance reimbursement - you would think those insurers would be very interested in the ability to mitigate predicted costs related to CKD - and that's certainly the belief being pushed by RENX - but something is holding back the primary care world from embracing the opportunity. Perhaps FDA will provide the stamp of approval required to unlock the market. SB

Unhooked - I think when you look at the spins off which came out of EKF (RENX, TRLS, VRCI) together with the actual performance of EKF, it is difficult to have anything other than a very jaded opinion on the performance of all four company's. Each is at a different stage in its gestation/growth - but each has significantly underperformed its trajectory. The common factor linking all of course is Harwood Capital via NAS and ORYX investment funds - and the major shareholdings they have each company. The former 'parent' - EKF - is itself a basket case at present with no leadership and major recent failures - although its siblings in all likelihood could not have raised the development capital required if they had remained as part of the EKF stable. In the current funding market any business will struggle to raise capital on reasonable terms even with a robust and evidential business plan with clear revenue streams and costs controls . Those burning through what remains of their cash balances are in a precarious position and as we know this is reflected in market confidence. This provides opportunities for shorters to accelerate the downside. As for RENX - given what has been spent and achieved to date - you would think there is more upside than not - but unless the company can evidence it has a product that can actually sell - and there are now so many ways both directly and indirectly those sale channels could be operating - then we remain in tough times. Stuartrm - thanks for looking - as you say - best not to go there!! To better days. SB

Can anyone remember the last time Renx ended in positive territory. AIM and Nasdaq now acting in unison to wipe out all recent gains. Grim to watch. SB

Looks like the market is already starting to adjust GCP NAV discount rate to that of GABI - and has probably been occurring for last two weeks as details leaked out. This was always a likely short term outcome which I am sure the BoD would have anticipated….doesn’t make it any easier for shareholders though who continue to see large scale capital hits. SB

In terms of further good news - there may be some further updates from the CMS relating to the anticipated National Coverage Determination which is one of the final elements required in the public payor market . There is a meeting scheduled for 24th August which has the KidneyIntetlX test on the agenda. In terms of timing for a fund raise - there are quite a few variables - markets are still in summer holiday mode; inflation and interest rate dichotomy; no real feedback on test sales levels despite sales agreements being put in place. However - it is likely imo RENX only has cash to support another 6 months trading - which is not a position providing any comfort. That said - its current major shareholders are not likely to allow that situation to develop into something resembling financial Armageddon - but they will look after themselves with little regard to private investors so caution is required here until the current funding issues is addressed. SB

Drifting slowly back to pre FDA levels....despite all the other positive news which followed. Could be Armistice Capital shorting or just general fear about a significant dilution on the horizon - I was hoping we could maintain a higher level of share price to help the impact of a fund raise - but as noted should have traded the FDA spike. Given we are not due to hear a formal Q1 financial update until October - I expect a trading/business update next couple of weeks - and more likely the issue of funding being addressed given the company's cash runway. SB

Interesting info unhooked - thanks - and agreed Vig. To the outside world it appears the EKF is now being run by one individual - Julian Baines - which from a governance perspective for a listed company is completely unacceptable. This is clearly now having a disruptive impact on the company's shareholder base with fund managers not willing to invest given such a regime and even worse pulling holdings. For now Liontrust and Gresham remain large II holders - presumably they are having direct conversations to satisfy themselves there is not more to this than what is evident to the rest of us. The H1 results in Sept provide an opportunity to try and 'reset' the current malaise which surrounds the company - the issue is I am not sure whether our current executive chair has the desire to mend the loss of trust experienced by corporate and private investors here. We shall see. SB

Disappointing that we have slipped away from the recent move into the 60's. SRC appears to be range bound in the 55p - 65p territory. Ironically todays valuation is £402m - the precise amount we bought Nordalk for in 2021. In total the business has now spent £600m on purchases - so we are trading about 2/3 of the 'purchase' book value. Despite broker reports - the reality is the business is trading at about 3.5 x 2023 EBITDA - less than half of what might be expected for a growing business. Expensive debt pile and lack of any return to shareholders despite 8p eps (which triggers 75% of the management team's substantial LTIP share awards end of this year) the main issues imo which need to be resolved before we see any material improvement here. SB

As is the norm here…..what goes up is guaranteed to come down. Doesn’t appear the financial roadshows have done much for investor sentiment. Tricky morning ahead. SB

Just saying it as I see it unhooked. I don’t like being so critical especially given I have a reasonable holding here but until I see actual evidence of an improvement I just don’t buy this transitional nonsense. All the company is doing is upscaling part of their historic operations with covid upside cash. And yet somehow this is classed as transitional and misses all the other red flags which are all too apparent to those who post here and elsewhere. Look at core progress in the last five years in the ‘ hot’ diagnostics space - way below average imo. SB

No permanent senior management team in place which didn’t even merit an update (despite being led to believe one was forthcoming); ever decreasing cash position (12 months ago we were sat on £21m); with 30% of cash locked in Russia; risk that our 2023 PBT no longer covers dividend as no update on FCF; slowing sales in POC (below 10%); cost cutting across the business; no customers signed up for increased life sciences capacity; and what appears to be missed timeframes with commissioning of fermenters. Apologies for negative comments but this update does nothing to reassure shareholders the business is on the correct trajectory - with no acknowledgement on the loss of investor value. Poor. SB

Trouble is - based on previous experience - market is expecting poor H1 results. Firing your CFO added to the previous note that further restructuring costs were coming down the road does not make for comforting reading. To have lost so much value in such a short space of time with a core business that does ok is pretty much unacceptable. I would say the business should be sold but I’m sure that would be a screw up as well. Major shareholders and NEDs should be embarrassed about what is going on. SB

C'mon donmac - its nasdaq friday :-) SB

That's over a week of daily declines in both indices - and now fast approaching the initial FDA approval price spike on the 30th June. Its worrying that there are likely 2 funds going short here with anywhere between 1.4m/1.8m shares to play around with - and with the price subject to high volatility on low volumes its a trading strategy which could hurt short term and ultimately the price at which new dilutive funds are raised. SB