Member Info for Silverblade

Hi Hawker . Out of interest do you know who the seller is? I accept there may be some impact on the price if there is someone offloading - and look at the 4m share trades notified after hours tonight which look like sells. Against that - Liontrust and Gresham have both been adding in decent numbers so they appear to be picking up the seller interest - and you would think this would balance up. I don't think we will see any positive momentum until H1 results in autumn - although we should get a trading update before which could help. For me it doesn't help that our house broker doesn't seem to have any appetite for price support - but I go back to the management team on that count. NIOX has enjoyed a good run of late - so there is hope here. SB

Renaytix was first granted breakthrough device designation for KidneyIntelX by the FDA in May 2019. Four years later we are still waiting for full de novo marketing authorisation signalling regulatory approval. There comes a point where any further delays are just ripping the michael. The special AGM on 8th June appears aligned to the presumption that FDA approves - and allows further fund raising to take place thereafter through the issue of up to c.50m shares - although the company could have waited until its standard AGM in December 2023 to put this into motion - however realistically based on current expenditure and income the cash runway only provides to end of this year. A negative response from FDA is unthinkable. Looks like June 2023 is make or break - FDA, fund raise approval , Q3 fiscal year results and end of 2023 trading year. SB

Dartron - in 20 years of investing I have never seen an investors market like the current one - major events (russia, pandemic, sub-prime type stuff) aside. I have looked at the holdings of recent posters here - and we share investments in companies such as Centralnic, Verici, Sigmaroc, Renaltyix - and none of these are exactly stellar performers - although some fall into the category of having milestone events due which may trigger revaluation. I also have some shares in UK infrastructure funds - some of which which are delivering the 7% yield you mention - but all with substantial price discounts to their NAV as a result of BoE interest rate monetary policy providing near 5% zero risk interest rate availability. So great if you chase yields, poor on capital return until interest rate rises cease and start to reduce - but looks like that's 2024. The smart position appears to be in cash......but where's the fun in that :-D. EKF, with its core business likely to do £50m in 2023, plus whatever life science can throw up (£5m?), with £11m cash and a divi close on 5%, EBITDA north of £10/12m (?) - looks like it should recover and does appear to have significant II support - but its very very painful to be a holder for now. SB

while you are mentioning investor sentiment to baines vig you might want to remind him of the substantial bonus he and the cfo enjoyed in 2022 from the value creation (each was paid £2.5m bonus - more than the entire shareholder divined allocation) 'theoretical exit' nonsense the remuneration committee made up to line their pockets. all that 'value creation' and more is now gone. the fact our previous ceo who was responsible for part of the current ****shw as unhooked delicately put it remains in the business having been at the helm as the business bought and sold adl damaging the overall valuation to the tune of £200m+ is as mind boggling as the bonus he was being lined up for - little chance of that being achieved now. the reality is don't have a ceo, we do have a disinterested chairman, a cfo who must be wondering what he has got himself into (although looking at the historic bonuses i can imagine what sold him on the idea) and three non-execs who don't appear to be challenging decision making. sb

Aside from congratulating Dartron on his prediction last month, Like Hawker I wonder at what point the company should consider a strategic review to see if there are any suitors who could do a better job with the companies business interests ? Barnes has made it clear he doesn't want to be in the hot seat and without a focused CEO what can we expect here. We have now lost almost 75% of our peak valuation - which in itself is dreadful alongside the acquisition failures. The uncertainty over further unquantified impairment costs is clearly unsettling - why this was not taken into 2022 I have no idea - with the net result on the shareholder proposition plain for all to see. What a mess - and yet all avoidable with the correct leadership, governance and decision making. Razor, razor. lol. SB

Its not just the VA which has been disappointing blue - despite a substantial sales force in place there still seems little in the way of test sales take up. All the partnerships. health systems, insurance contracts in place - and yet we continue to be almost 100% reliant on the original $6m evidence driven testing contract with Sinai. And now that $6m has been used - we are told that the month of March (and thus Q3) has been poor as the company transitions into a 'commercial insurance payment model'. We have no local coverage determination with Medicare yet - so we now appear to reliant on a case by case approval (which is not sustainable), private insurance coverage which has had minimal take up so far despite talk of millions of lives covered and the slow take up an all other public partnerships. So no wonder when asked to give some guidance on revenue going forward they ducked the question - they simply don't know. The company has only recently started to be transparent on quarterly testing volumes - 1200 in Q1, 1300 in Q2, ? (less than 1300) in Q3 and goodness knows what in Q4 without the core Sinai evidence programme in place. Q4 news flow should see FDA and Medicare LCD - but crucially there needs to be some traction/evidence that the US health market is prepared to purchase Kidney tests in volume - or all the great evidence, clinical models, $$B's of potential savings and tens of millions of improved patient outcomes will amount to a great white elephant. SB

LST appears to have taken investor shafting to a whole new level. Seemed such a decent food production innovation but in hindsight it’s quite literally pie in the sky! SB

As noted by others thanks for sharing your response vig. I am a bit perplexed by the claim that 3 of that top 5 holders in SRC have liquidated all their stock. For one - there does not appear to have been any RNS announcements on such significant II reductions; and further it would be one heck of a 'coincidence' that all three chose to exit in the same time period without a trigger. Suggesting investors should look forward to the uplift in activity is all fine and well - but the evidence of the last 18 months suggests otherwise - SRC have now spent/raised £600m and have a market cap less than £400m, price is back to its 2020 placing price, valuation is 3.5 EBITDA, debt is close to covenant ceiling, zero shareholder return from free cash flow. But its OK we managed to produce our legally required accounts on time and Breedon are going to the main market so we might pick up some of their AIM investors. If this is a strategy to deliver shareholder value then quite frankly I expect much better. SB

Vig - my comment on black rock wasn’t directed at anyone in particular - more we can’t lay the blame for what’s happening here on them alone. The point on using free cash flow for acquisitions rather than further diluting shareholders would be ok if the company had any intention of delivering a return to shareholders in addition to its acquisition trail. FCF of £50m pa sounds great but interest payments are going to eat into that over the coming years. A guess it’s the usual tale of this time next year….only in this case it’s this time in 3-5 years, maybe. Meanwhile we are making a small management team very wealthy. SB

Blackrock have been playing around at the 10% level for the last six months - and to blame them for the current mess here makes no sense. It is clear that the company intends to plough on purchasing bolt on acquisitions, deferred consideration commitments and secured pipeline regardless of the short/medium term cost to shareholders. The market recognises these purchases need to be made through rights issues, placings - so existing shareholders will continue to be diluted hence the rush to exit. Being a good 'operational' company does not mean it is a good investment - in this regard the last two years have shown this has been a bad investment by those of us who have an interest here. The directors all received their full bonus entitlement in 2022 despite the share price cratering, with share options continuing to accrue and not even a veiled offering to smooth shareholders concerns on the lack of any return. Oh - and remember there is the small issue of the term loan repayments coming on line big time this year. Still, its only investors money. Good old AIM. SB

Buyback appears stopped or on hold. At this price you would think they would be piling in. Hit 8% yield and yet nothing but sellers in the market. Beginning to think there may be more to this decline than market dynamics. SB

Sounds like Baines has been busy - and yes I think its safe to assume anything lab related (Covid, NIPT etc) has gone with ADL. Looks like they have attempted to further simplify the business into two core operations (1) Point of Care and Central Laboratory and (2) Life Sciences and Contact Manufacturing. Basically back to where the business was in 2019 pre covid with a decent core c.£45m revenue business growing at 10%+ pa in (1) and the now c.$15m enzyme investment looking to grow much increased life sciences revenue in (2). Looks like they are trying to get poor news out the way ahead of next Tuesday, with the exception of the exceptional restructuring costs. SB

Bought for $10m…..sold for $1m. Only positive was the deal was all share. But compounded with ekf then purchasing 9m buyback shares at c40p to create some ‘value’ - more money thrown at the problem. Complete disaster and makes you seriously wonder about BOD competence. SB

Here ends a rather painful lesson in how not to acquire and run fledging companies with no history set up to address a one off crisis. Good that ekf are looking to clean house, bad that shareholders take the hit - although it’s not clear yet what the true cost of this will be - we will hear more next week. SB

Perhaps you are right on the FDA announcement andypa - I am getting to the point where all my trust has evaporated in a number of investment including renx - it is possible we will never know. On your point on FDA approval not being important - historically I did not see this as a barrier to growth. However, until such a time that the company can actually show it is selling tests in volume to others rather than Sinai clinical trials, I am more inclined to see FDA endorsement as an important milestone which will address any remaining barriers from potential clients. Medicare local coverage determination was forecast for the first half of this year - another very important bit of the jigsaw - and appears to be separate from FDA given individual claims are already being processed in NY. ATB SB

At least we now know why the placing was at such a heavy discount - this has not just happened overnight. Makes you wonder what's on the cards for the H1 results.....SB

If the company does not secure any revenue this year - and as it stands that is the case given we have no agreed commercial reimbursement for any of our products - then at the current rate of spend the company will run of money by Dec 2023. A material issue which auditors will note in the full year accounts. imo the next update needs to cover where we are with securing pricing agreement; what cost efficiencies can be introduced to mitigate cash burn; how the company intends to distribute its products (direct sales or via agents) once pricing has been agreed; together with a general strategy on how the company wishes to develop - stand alone or partnership. Clearly stand alone in the current market funding market has become very difficult hence the perception the business will struggle. SB

I bought here for the SIPP dividend income but did not expect this to go near the covid 2020 levels. Quite baffling given the reasonably solid portfolio which benefits from high utilities and inflation pricing. Largest discount in sector by some distance for a share now yielding almost 8% at current price. I would say crazy but nothing surprising in current market. SB

If as anticipated the H1 results come out end of next week - Renx will know how it has performed in Q3 as well an announcing Q2 within H1. One of the issues which has continually been avoided is why we have such a large sales force when the vast majority of test sales are to Sinai. No point in talking about super majority state wide insurance coverage, VA, Medicare (only case by case for now) if no one is willing to commit to sales. Part of fund raise was sales related incl currently advertised roles in New York. Need to evidence overhead reductions - we were told $12m cuts moving into this calendar year - so costs should be below $10m per quarter. $1.4m Q2 would be 40% growth - c. 1700 billable tests V 1200 in Q1. As predicted in the absence of any other update - price now below the heavily discounted placing. SB

This all started with ekf which itself is now a basket case - although it has a chance. Renalytix, Trellus, Verci, Ekf - Harwood and Mills are the common denominator is these health sector disasters. Sadly quite a few of us believed the growth stories and invested in each - to significant loss. Difficult to see vrci surviving the next 6 months. SB