Member Info for Silverblade

Not so sure you can describe Mike Salters appointment as a hospital pass - some of the decisions during his tenure as CEO were very costly to the business in $$ and reputation. That said - there clearly is a belief he is the man to steer the life sciences fermentation business. Or leave any final management tidying up to the new CEO - now that's a hospital pass. SB

Whilst it has been disappointing to the price slide back into the 50's rather than continue to trend upwards, it is worth noting that the proposed capital reduction was approved shareholders at the AGM in April and thereafter by the courts on 23rd May 2023. This has created distributable reserves and will allow the company to pay dividends, make distributions or undertake purchases of its own shares - noting none have actually been proposed to date - but at least the mechanics to allow such actions has been put in place. SB

There we have it. 9%. 2 x current BoE interest rate. Makes you wonder what doom market is starting to price. Bonkers. SB

Some useful feedback all - thanks for your contributions. It is pretty clear there is strong link between the increasing price of govt debt (gilts, bonds) interest rates and impact on infrastructure yields. That said - the risk premium is way excessive imo. Monetary policy is all over the place in the UK at present - I can only imagine Jeremy Hunt is to some extent fortunate he is not making the calls on interest rates - although all too late from Threadneedle Street. I thought GCP had priced in a mini armageddon when it went started to yield 8% - but to be approaching 9%?. And talk of 10%. Although that is the direction of travel it is uncomfortable to see the conclusion of utter incompetence from the BoE. I am a holder here - and remain so - accepting its going to take some pain to get the economy back in order and turn the tide on the share price - I'm on an 8% yield so will take that in the meantime despite the capital loss. Full employment - if those claims are real - will not help. The general population seems to be spending like its going out of fashion - despite everything you read about household budgets, cost of living, energy, mortgages etc. As for GCP - there must be some grey matter at work considering its options - scale up the buy back; go for a tender offer ie take shares off market and increase dividend/yield. The fund discount is now 30% - several hundreds of £millions. Or sit tight and see where it all ends up. Quite a mess all round. SB

Despite GCP continuing buy backs - 500k alone yesterday - price still in free fall. 80p breach not good - possible floor broken - could be another difficult week. The aim to preserve capital with a decent yield now shattered. SB

So…..1240 tests in Q3. Problem is 33% are non billable - part of clinical evidence test programmes which are paid for by Renx. So 800 paid tests - $0.7m revenue. Messaging is clear on way forward - FDA, Medicare and insurance coverage should open the order book and create enough barriers to entry to secure a significant market advantage. Easy peasy eh…..and $$$$ in investor cash! SB

Possibly just me but didn’t think it would take four months to pull together a job spec and advert for a CEO. Not exactly prioritising the role…..SB

I agree a reduction in tests is not great news - and will no doubt be received poorly - but IF there are signs insurers are paying rather than relying on Sinai evidence tests then that is the critical commercial step change needed if the business is to ultimately become a viable operation. SB

Sales of the test have been running at c.100 per week for some time now andypa - almost all via the $6m Sinai evidence programme. That in itself was disappointing given we were advised the target was 300 a week - although I suspect that means the evidence programme would have ended much earlier than Q3 2023. So yes - looks like revenue will be less than Q2; however at some point they are going to have to clarify where test sales are coming from - something there has always been a reluctance to do presumably because its been 95% Sinai. Renx in now almost 6 months in with its VA access programme; claims to have witnessed a ramp up of test sales using its sales portal; is receiving insurance backed sales in New York; seeing primary care led sales in Illinois with its 70%+ super majority insurance coverage; Eversana; etc. The benefits of these multiple revenue channels should start to be seen in Q4. FDA and Medicare LCD pretty much essential in terms of credibility and public reimbursement. Assume GM will get all its approval later today. Probably a bit of disappointment in the morning with reported numbers - but hoping the earnings call will be informative. SB

Welcome back dartron….almost. Good day trade - when opportunity knocks. SB

And so the madness continues.....I guess Jefferies were right on the historic underperform call....if interest rates continue to climb does this get driven below 80p? At what point does a larger fund start to see value here in the medium term and try their luck. Divi next week, results in a couple of weeks, new NAV due mid July. Not likely to make any impact in current sector decline. SB

Q3 results day after GM to approve additional share listing. Will be interesting to see how Q3 test sales fared given the recent reimbursement changes. Q1 1200; Q2 1300. If March sales at Sinai fall off a cliff due to the switch to a full commercial insurance payment model then we have a problem - issue is whether its temporary or not. I guess the most important issue is whether insurers are willing to pay - and we are not likely to know the answer until Q4 test sales are provided. IF the model works in New York involving both insurance payments and medicare (which still appears to be case by case which is not sustainable) then you can see how they could roll out elsewhere - but the New York market with its Sinai links and work to date is hugely important to validate the commercial model. Here's hoping they don't delay FDA again - the previous delay appeared to be on process and classification - not the test validation itself. SB

Gresham have combined their two fund holdings and also added some more which takes them to 10% + holding. I did a quick review of current ownership - and c.70% of ekf is now in the ownership of funds (Harwood - 29%; Liontrust 11%; Gresham 10%: Canaccord - 5%; Schroder - 4%; Stock Invest - 4%; others - c.7%). Looks like there is an optimistic view on the future from this low point. Lets hope they are right. SB

Cant be long now donmac….surely? As you have noted previously - wonder how nasdaq will finish this week in anticipation. SB

A few days after a positive update. Inflation, interest rates and govt bonds killing this sector. Almost 40p off year high. Madness. SB

Agree on your AIM point donmac - must be a real possibility of a full Nasdaq listing here assuming FDA approval. The future is US funded. Todays deal seems like it is putting in place the building blocks to sell tests without committing to a single pharma - makes sense. Although no detail on the actual commercial detail! SB

I think its more like 95/5 in favour of FDA approval being granted - if all the clinical evidence and supporting data does not secure approval then goodness knows what you need to process to achieve regulatory approval - and I cannot imagine they will get another shot. It would likely be game over and taken private for pennies based on the importance placed on FDA by the market. The reclassification order update would lead you to believe FDA will grant de novo. In which case I would expect a significant price hike. Less than 3 months ago the price spiked at £1.50 (placement was 90p) based on anticipated approval - so it would seem reasonable to assume there will be a decent uplift. In the background there is still the Medicare local coverage determination going through its approval - which would be another significant event to ease the approval and simplicity around test sales. All imo. SB

Looks like a few smaller holders have decided not to hang around in case Armageddon arrives. As usual price gets hammered on low volume. Tick tock. SB

Thanks for sharing Datron - quite a mix you have going on there - and I note you are quite hands on with your trading which shows you are well briefed in your investments. Years ago I looked at CNIC when it was 40p.....and instead opted for its peer MMX. On reflection I should have hedged and gone 50/50.....hindsight eh! In the end I picked up CNIC...but over £1 average - lets hope the market start to place some value there again soon. As for EKF - it could drift a bit lower - but I think we are close to a 'bottom' based on what we know - and assuming fermentation is all successfully commissioned and customers complete orders - this has decent prospect of a material recovery imo. SB

Although good news - and presumably ties in with the plan to achieve 'super majority' insurance coverage in key target markets - the company has consistently not provided any evidence that any of its clients are actually buying test kits beyond Mount Sinai - which itself has recently come to the end of its $6m test support package. Q4 results will be hugely important to see if private and public payers are actually willing to pay for tests via primary care physicians - despite all the clinical and financial evidence that it makes sense for target populations and budget holders. Until that comes announcements such as these are relatively meaningless imo. SB