Firering Strategic Minerals: From explorer to producer. Watch the video here.
Cheers Vig - will be interesting to see if the company reports any share purchases made this morning/today. Cant imagine II's will be overly happy with todays events so far. I hope the investor call is helpful - I cant make it unfortunately but I think there is a replay function. No idea what Singers are playing at - total waste of time - and again not helpful in the current context. This is a core bio-tech holding of Christopher Mills (OIG and NAS) alongside CIR and RENX - and its been a shocking six months for all three in market valuation. SB
Great year in 2021 - and good progress to create growth offsetting decline in covid testing. 2024 mentioned a few times - coincides with new fermentation operations at south bend fully operational and a planned increase in non covid diagnostic testing including ADL which should add decent revenue moving forward. Lots of cash, lots of cash generation, few decent investments which will grow in time. Buyback intent was great - but to declare a sum of money - £4m, and a total number of shares which can be purchased - 9m - and its little wonder we start the day at 45p given that's the implied price the business places on its shares. Talk about shooting yourself in the foot. SB
Looks like the building sector is back under review - if as expected the BoE continues to increase interest rates through 2022 to try and curb inflation - there are growing risks that global economies will struggle as we emerge from a period ultra low financing and large scale cash liquidity courtesy of central banks. It is disappointing to see SRC head back to its 12 month low after a strong set of results with much optimism for the next period of growth - however a buy to build business may be more constrained moving forward given the higher costs of capital - offset to some extent by our own growing positive cash flow available for investment. Companies with large piles of debt which need refinanced in a higher interest rate environment will need to tread carefully - not that SRC is in that bracket at the moment imo. SB
We will need to wait and see where millennium go next - but agreed lets hope they start to exit their position - and others follow suit. Jatw - not sure what your 6 week reference is? As it stands we have enough cash to last us Q3 and Q4 2022; and Q1 and Q2 2023 ie until the end of this year - and that assumes pretty much zero income which is highly unlikely. So no need for any panic buttons at the moment.
The timing of the Q2 and H1 2022 results are interesting - essentially coincides with the end of of Q3 trading - so the company will have full visibility on the acceleration of its testing run rate based on two quarters performance data - and the income generated v costs. Perhaps this was the reason for the delay in reporting. The conference call topics will be closely observed - strategy, partnerships and reimbursement - hopefully linking back to the milestone targets for this year. SB
Millennium sniffed an initial opportunity with a general bio sector bear market on early growth stocks and algorithms probably did the rest. They could get caught on the way up - the old short squeeze.
Good points about the previous team and exits - I think that was always the medium term plan here. One of the issues no doubt front and centre at HQ is the the cost of capital in the current market/shareholder dilution v equity investment/control issues v acquisition. The current market value is not likely to have gone unnoticed by players in this space - if we genuinely have the data to support a market leading product which could deliver the types of healthcare savings on record - then bigger sharks may be circling. We already have an established partnership with Davita with commercial risk sharing arrangements in place - it would not be unreasonable for both organisations to be considering something more formal - and Davita have the $$ to make that happen. Food for thought. SB
100% agree ingy - I think the results were in line with market expectations given the positive momentum in the last 9 months. Lots to look forward to here - cash on balance sheet, strong cash flow from operations and debt facility all available to grow the business. Lots of potential acquisitions reviewed - with Johnston's clearly the latest to pass the required diligence for purchase. With a growing business there are lots of one off and amortisation costs which skew the underlying performance downwards - but based on what we already know for this year the team are on track for a great 2022 - £100m EBITDA certainly achievable - with more to come. SB
Given the ongoing radio silence on anything material from RENX - it does look more and more likely some corporate activity is underway in the background - which could cover a number of issues relating to funding (rights issue, placing, pharma partner) or a major milestone secured - or possibly just a late publication of results. Millennium have not increased (or decreased) short position - so possibly believe price has been pushed as low as they can get it. Next RNS 'should' be interesting......SB
Nothing of any real note from a first pass. Pretty much just a one trick pony now - niox or bust! If the company is being fully transparent on its cost of sales and reached a point where further cost savings are now limited - the only route to a profitable business is to increase niox sales - with US and Asia the two key target markets. If we can maintain year to date sales growth of 20% (clinical focus which accounts for 85%+ of revenue), this would take us close to pre-pandemic sales level (£34m) for current year - and should deliver an actual trading profit - no point in a 68% gross margin when costs wipe all of that margin out. Good to have plenty of cash in back with future positive cash generation and beyond air royalties helping build that position. Now we are a clean and viable business I wonder if the team have had any enquiries. SB
The breedon results were strong - and I don't see any reason why we cannot post similarly positive trading. We should be in the region of £270m turnover for 2021; but more importantly is the forward guidance for 2022 where we now have a business looking to generate £500m turnover and more importantly a 20% EBITDA - which would be significantly ahead of breedons EBIT return (c.11%) and further implies a significant value discount to our larger peer. Lets see how 2021 panned out for a current direct comparison. SB
It would have been strange for the company not to receive some positive momentum in the run up to its results next week - its been massacred of late linked to a number of issues highlighted recently - despite the run of positive news events from the company. IMO our current value no longer reflects the growth opportunity the company has laid out so I'm hoping for a very positive update next week. Just out of interest Scooby - what was the starting point of your bowl - Dec 2021 - quite a retracement all the way down to c.45p? SB
No worries donmac - wasn't having a shot at the messenger - just hadn't seen any notifications which the longer time passes the more our mind's wander as to what's going on.....if there's a date on nasdaq good. SB
Not so sure about results next week - normal practice is for an RNS advising the release date and I haven't seen one as of yet? Good review on 'shorts world' ShearC - the only positive I can take out of the current share price situation is that eventually Millennium and Armistice will need to buy back 1.3m shares in order to close their positions - and with 50%+ of our stock likely held by II's there is not exactly a large amount of liquidity so we could see quite a fast rise - based on the assumption we get a positive update from the company dealing with all the issues which have resulted in the current sentiment capitulation in the near future, here's hoping....SB
Millennium continue to turn the screw - increased their short again on Tuesday to 1.31% - and unfortunately because there is such low volume/liquidity in our shares that continued short selling drives the price lower and lower. In the last six weeks Millennium have increased their position by 600K shares - effectively selling 100K shares a week - and in doing so have reduced the market cap by 50% from c.£350m to c.£180m. In order to exit their position they would need to buy c.1m shares - but as it stands they appear to see no need to close out - lack of material updates from renx not helping. They are likely working in tandem with Armistice who have a further 0.51% short in the company. SB
Agreed ShearC in relation to annual accounts - I just wondered if the same no buy rule for exec directors applied to quarterly/half year reporting - probably from the sound of it. SB
Lets try and finish today with a blue colour. Possible we reached the low point yesterday. Millennium last increased their short position on 14th March to 1.25% - so let's hope the next update is a reduction which would create some positivity and help to reduce the current fear factor. Other point to note - we have not seen any director share purchases since late 2021 - and given where we are I would have expected a show of support - unless directors are privy to market sensitive information (don't think this includes a closed period as we are only due a half year report) in which case any trading would be precluded. Still no RNS on Q2 and H1 2022 results announcement I can see. SB
Spot on Hawker - its indiscriminate to say the least - and early phase bio has been especially hammered. Certainly agree on the points which require management updates - I had not seen the 24th March date mentioned for results so that's helpful. SB
Agree with all your thoughts guys. Trying to see though the current position - we had $54m cash in sept '21 with a Q1 expense of $12m. The $12m Q1 expense had some one off costs (R+D, share based compensation payments for options) - so its likely our Q2 (to Dec 21) expenses will be slightly lower than Q1 ($11m?) with an increase in revenue (say 100 tests a week at $950 - 100% increase from Q1 - but still way below 300 a week target) - then we entered 2022 with c.$44m cash. Moving into Q3 (to March 22) we should start to see more income from Sinai and other partnerships coming on stream - and clearly the scale and timing of this income is critical to the current predicament. We certainly have enough cash to see us through Q3 and Q4 - and into 2023 financial year. But it is very unlikely our income will come anywhere near our costs for the next wo years - although in reality we only need to process 45,000 tests pa to breakeven on current reimbursement - with the company already confirming Sinai is looking at 10,000 pa. Doesn't help the current market fear but helps me sleep 'slightly' better at night....SB
Unfortunately its probably not so crazy - the market knows something is a) currently happening in the background or b) required to happen - and that's why a short trading position has been taken against the company. Uncertainty = fear = investors exiting = price crash. SB
We have had a run of interesting RNS releases in the last two months covering new senior appointments, attendance at various healthcare conference, new partnerships, positive clinical trial data and national US programme platform launches. Despite that - in the last two months we have lost £250m in market value alone. We are now worth c. 20% of our year high. The current rout (Ukraine aside) is likely linked to the delay in the publication of our results, a short position in the US driven by a general downgrade in the biotech market post covid_19, uncertainty on 12 month cash funding and the implication we need to raise funds which in the current market could be both tricky and expensive in dilution terms, and finally the FDA approval issue which would go a long way to reassure the market on the viability of our core product. Bit of a perfect s**t storm - the next RNS needs to focus on these core issue imo. SB
overlook - I expect we will next hear from the company in early April to hopefully confirm the full escrow has been released together with an update on where it stands in relation to paying its tax and adviser fees and a potential timetable for the final return. Our shareholdings remain recorded in Crest - I can still see my holding in my accounts - just with zero value! SB