Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
"Flushing out weak holders LOL".
You can't blame holders for being "weak" when a SP has crashed from 147.5p to 0.77p in less than 18months, the company's last RNS was to advise that they are considering appointing Administrators and an institution posting an RNS an hour ago stating that they have bailed!!!
Thanks B2HLS2 - so that is potentially more positive at least re the patient with the bone metastases - in that AVA600 appears to have had a good initial effect in that patient against tumours in areas where blood supply is good and the drug can come into contact with FAP-rich cancer cells and be activated. At least that's one question partly answered. Still a lot of unanswered ones though.
At 4pm yesterday, I did not believe an imminent raise was coming - let alone at 50p. More fool me.
I had great belief in AVA6000 and pre|CISION until I read and digested yesterday's raise RNS. AVCT is now, in my view, a materially less attractive investment than it was 24 hours ago. Why? For a number of reasons: -
1. There has been a heavily discounted raise. This indicates that strategic investors / II's see this stock as risky .
2. There's no sign of the fortnightly dosing which I had assumed would be well underway . There's no explanation of why.
3. The CEO has rowed back significantly in terms of his rhetoric re AVA6000 and pre|CISION. From paradigm shifts and holy grails. Now he is saying that (subject to funding and regulatory approval) AVA6000 has the potential to compete effectively with other modes of reducing toxicity of Doxorubicin. MUCH less bullish. Was he over egging AVA6000 or is emerging data not as good as it appeared in December? Also, what rival mechanisms for reducing Dox toxicity? What stage are they at? Is AVA6000 not unique?
4. All of a sudden, the drug will need a Phase 3 trial (again, subject to funding).
5. From the RNS, it appears two further rounds of funding may be needed - as Phase 2 and Phase 3 are both stated to be subject to funding. The RNS does NOT explicitly state that the current raise will take AVCT to the end of Phase 2.
6. Phase 3 is scheduled to be in 2026. When will it end? How can we be sure that the FDA will approve AVA6000 at the end of Phase 3? (The bar for Phase 3 approval, as I understand it, is pretty high - the drug needs to work better than standard Dox).
7. Given that the CEO talked up AVCT's LFT's and then no LFT's were sold - and given that he is dialling down his hype of AVA6000, which suddenly is much further away from approval, with more barriers of time, approvals and money in the way - there is a trust issue here. Has overpromised twice now.
8. Can we now be sure that the data is a positive as it has been portrayed? The RNS talks of 5 patients (out of 40). 3 with steady disease - clearly good. One, which we knew about in December, with 65% tumour volume reduction in a case of soft tissue sarcoma - again, clearly good, but not new - and no meaningful update since December. A fifth patient with 14% tumour reduction, but with metastases elsewhere. It's this patient that raises questions for me. We know AVA6000 targets FAP-rich tumours directly and circulates in lower volume than standard Dox elsewhere in the body. Does this mean there is a risk that, as it focuses on the FAP-rich tumour, it may not be as effective as sweeping up and blasting any cancer cells which are circulating and looking to take root elsewhere? If reducing side effects of Dox also reduced its efficacy in sweeping up cancer cells circulating and trying to take root, then is it as much of a game changer. Clarification needed. What about the patients that are not mentioned?
Too many new question marks.
What has happened is an organised spreading of FUD, which has made nervous PI's sell. The FUD spreaders (many conspicuous by their absence this morning) have piled in with buys. They'll sell later today and take their 15-20% to the next share they target.
Hopefully there is a special corner of hell reserved for those who make their money knocking value off of businesses which are attempting to improve outcomes for cancer patients.
From AVCT over the past few weeks could mean any of the following:
1. They are discussing a takeover.
2. They are discussing a non-dilutive partnership / licensing deal / strategic investment.
3. They WERE discussing one of the above, but it has recently fallen through and they are now having to consider dilutive funding. Some people know this, hence the price action.
4. They've been discussing a placing at a higher price but some people know, etc - see point 3 above.
5. Everything is fine but shorters are attacking the share to try to drive price down so they can pick up cheap shares.
6. Everything is fine but PI's are twitchy and some have sold, driving price down, causing more to panic.
Who knows? The only thing I am confident of is that AVA6000 hasn't suddenly stopped working as that would be contrary to all the Phase 1 data to date and would also need to have been RNS'd.
Funding will of course be needed for Phase 2. That's not news. It has always been the case.
People are moaning that there have been no real updates on the progress of Phase 1 since December.
AVCT will want to come back to the market with the best update possible. They won't push the button on funding in any form until they think they have the best possible Phase 1 dataset to base their negotiations on. The dosing is ongoing. AVCT will be in a much stronger position to get funding for the next phase on the most favourable terms possible if they can point to, say 90% reduction is a tumour rather than 60%. That's what they will currently be working towards. Building the clinical data that enables them to get the most favourable funding terms for the next phase.
Of course, that takes time and that can cause some people to lose their nerve and others to sow doubts.
I watched it again today.
It is impossible to see it laid out in black and white how Avacta's modified doxorubicin has an increasing, cumulative tumour-targeted effect with minimal side effects - to the extent that a maximum safe dose and maximum number of doses have not yet been found.
And that's just among the first patients in the first trial of the first drug modified by the PreCision platform.
There is a lot of nonsense typed on here by some posters and a lot of noise, but facts are facts.
Dr Christina Coughlin, who led the presentation, has seen enough to commit herself to the company full time.
She, who knows better than any of us on here, is clearly convinced that the platform works - and the published evidence clearly indicates that she is right about that. It's there in black and white.
I am sitting and waiting patiently and consider the sky to be the limit here.
Barnetpeter, well done on a decent trade.
It is worth noting though that this SP had fallen from 2260p in May 2022 to 130p in October last year.
So, rather than viewing 130p to 340p as "quite a run" as you put it, many holders (myself included) will doubtless see that rise as the modest beginnings of a recovery from an extremely depressed level, with great potential for much more to come.
Newdealz, do all of us long-term BOOM holders and investors a favour and take your tiresome, ill-informed, negative garbage elsewhere. You know nothing about this company and your posts betray the depth of your ignorance. Into the green box you go.
I have said it before and will say it again: for anyone who has been lucky enough to purchase at the recent SP levels I believe it really is just a case of sitting and waiting. There is nothing wrong with the fundamentals here IMO and I personally do not think the SP reflects those fundamentals at all. Quite the opposite.
(like me) are holding this share waiting for (hopefully) a buy-out at a much higher price than the current one.
Others are trading it.
It was 100p a very short time ago. It went up to nearly 170p. People who are trading the share have taken a good profit. Good luck to them.
Nothing that traders do will impact whether or not those of us holding for more than five minutes get the big payday we are hoping for.