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This company has previous (16aZ in 2019) for sitting on bad news about a well for months and spinning things out until they can soften the blow with some jam tomorrow news about the next potential well. Today's RNS just feels like more of the same.
taking over the permit application gives me no confidence that they want this project to go ahead. I honestly think SAE would be far better scrapping it and (when funds from tidal allow) starting again in another jurisdiction where coal fire stations are more prevalent and a move to burning waste is more attractive. I just can't see the Welsh Govt. signing up to a dormant power station burning anything. I think that would bd short sighted, but my gut is tgat politically they won't want to try to sell that idea, despite its obvious benefits in terms of dealing with plastic waste. Just my opinion.
the 2019 RNS where the water at 16aZ was touted as being mainly returned drilling fluid. It wasn't. That came when the price was 10p+. It still has never recovered and I ended up cutting my five figure losses (my biggest ever) in Nov 19 at what now looks a decent 6p.
for two years now, since 22p in the autumn of 2019. Should have just held my initial stake.
Am always wary of what happens to a price very short term on the back of expected good news, especially where as in this case the SOP has risen steadily during the period prior to that news.
If the news is what we all hope for (and on the face of it, I can't understand any reason from a layperson's perspective why FDA approval would not be granted) we'll find out to what extent approval is already baked in to the price and to what extent people are planning to "sell the news". That is short term though. If FDA approval is granted, over the medium term then surely this is only going one way and that is up in a big way IMO. There is a huge market and a clinical need. GLA
I've been watching and waiting for the right entry point here for many months. I think this is it. Moving in the right direction in terms of production. Huge amounts of a product which is needed and will be for the foreseeable future. SP very lost to 12 month low and has been lower for only a matter of weeks over the last three years. Looks like a no brainer from here IMO for anyone with any degree of patience.
when a share price has suddenly risen, other LSE boards have become inundated with new posters who appeared from nowhere, posting umpteen times a day, breathlessly predicting how much higher the SP was going to go and how life changing an investment in the company might be.
You could have been forgiven for thinking they had spotted the rise, bought in for a quick trade and were talking up a share they perhaps had never heard of a few days previously in order to disappear (with a quick profit) as suddenly as they appeared.
Thank heavens nothing like that could ever happen here.
Irrespective of how well sales are going or otherwise for the LFT at this time, it doesn't matter that much IMO other than in terms of the market's ability to get jumpy (and for the SP to be volatile) in the short term.
The point (re the LFT) is that affimers have been proved to be effective (very so) in such a diagnostic test. There is obvious, significant value in that tech IMO.
Then you have the therapeutics side of AVCT which is why I initially invested in Feb last year. That really hasn't started yet.
It's not nice being underwater, but I can wait.
The thing I like least about the possible offer is the fact that there are people behind it who have an interest in both BOOM and AAA.
If the deal goes through, it is great for them.
They sell their interest in BOOM, but retain an interest in BOOM through AAA.
They also acquire more shares (which they want) in AAA, which they can either retain or flip for a potentially inflated 80p price (which they are much more likely to be able to do than PI's like me).
They don't need to worry about losing part of their ISA allowance, having shares in a company they don't want to own which they can't sell as it is delisted, or having unexpected capital gains tax liabilities as a result of shares being knocked out of an ISA.
As I see it, it's a heads I win, tails I win proposal from their point of view. They either sell their interest in BOOM to for a bargain price in a "currency2 that suits them and to a body through which they retain an interest in BOOM, so they can then sell their interest in BOOM again later for a more realistic price or they flush out a realistic cash bid, which they might opt to allow to materialise by allowing their own bid to lapse. I tend to think they'd prefer the former. If I can sell something for £12 which being able to sell it again later, wouldn't I rather do that than sell it for £15 but have no further interest in it?
Either way, this bid is absolutely not designed to maximise value for ordinary PIs nor to take account of their legitimate interests or tax affairs (e.g. impacts of delisting on ISA's / ability to realise cash for shares).
The share price this morning on the back of a fantastic half-yearly report, reflects the above IMO.
Key section: "Audioboom was contacted by AAA regarding the Possible Offer during the late afternoon of Friday, 16 July 2021 and has not had any material dialogue with AAA regarding the Possible Offer subsequent to its receipt."
Not quite the same as AAA's take on it in their RNS this morning, that they were in constructive discussions with the Audioboom board.
No indication in the latest RNS of any enthusiasm on Audioboom's board's part towards the proposal.
Good.
I am trying to get my head around what the thinking is of the holders of the 26.4% who have stated they will back this bid.
Are they hoping that the bid's existence (and their ability to block any other bid while this bid is live) will flush out rival, more appropriate (i.e. higher and cash-based) bids?
Surely if a better bid comes in, that would doom the current bid to failure as holders of 75% would not back it if there is a better bid around, thus reopening the door for a more suitable bid / bidding war.
I want to sell my shares ultimately for cash via takeover at a much higher price than £12. The current bid in my view is derisory as it is based on shares in another company which in reality are worth who knows what and which shares I am not particularly interested in holding (and definitely not if they have to come out of my ISA and are delisted, making them very hard to sell).
but at the end of the day, testing will be around in volume for a long time, AVCT has a great test and (most importantly) AVCT is about a lot more than just Covid testing.
The value in this company is IMO (i) the overall value of the Affimer platform and (ii) the chemo potential of preCISION. The LFT has proven that platform's efficacy is a significant way. Newsflow on the preCISION side is better than ever.
I made a great trade last year on the initial rise. I bought in again several weeks ago on the above potential value.
I am sitting on a paper loss. I am not concerned. The various strings to AVCT's bow have, IMO, potential value well in excess of the current mcap. I'm prepared to sit and wait for that value, hopefully, to be realised.
I am optimistic.
Am waiting for the inevitable takeover, which I am extremely confident will be at a price WELL into double figures. Every update increases the price the predator will need to pay and the company's success appears to be snowballing. If BOOM was sold for the equivalent of Wondery's acquisition a few months ago, you'd be looking at £12+. BOOM's numbers are blowing Wondery's pre-acquisition numbers out of the water now, so I am daring to dream a good bit higher now. I have never been more relaxed about sitting on my hands. Simply a waiting game from here IMO.
When you consider the price that Wondery was sold for at the turn of the year and also the mcap at IPO of another US podcaster whose name escapes me in recent weeks, an equivalent value for BOOM would be in the £13 per share region. It is worth nearing in mind though that BOOM has better numbers than Wondery, has become EDITDA profitable in Q1 this year and as the best independent podcaster still standing is an obvious takeover target for a number of potential predators. With Tobin buying shares again on the open market last week, it all looks positive.
Another excellent piece of news to follow yesterday's big RNS.
The only thing holding this back from a significant and sustained rerate now IMO is the requirement of funding (referred to in both the RNS's) and the uncertainty over how much funding is needed, what form that will take and (if in the form of equity) at what price it might be raised.
I would think once that is sorted in due course, a lot more new will be prepared to pile in here and stay in for the longer term. Two contracts in two days is very encouraging.
I Googled "Good Law Project DHSC Abingdon". There is a section on the GLA website dealing with a specific judicial review petition by GLA against the DHSC with regard to the award of the contracts to Abingdon last year. As far as I can see, these proceedings are live. GLA has sought to have the award of the contracts held to be unlawful on seven grounds. There appear to have been preliminary hearings this year on the case, whereby some of the grounds have been rejected but GLA it seems will be permitted to go ahead with their petition on four of the grounds.
Of course, the petition may not be successful. I have no idea what its chances of success are. However, how long is this going to take? If the case goes against the DHSC initially, it has the resources to appeal. This could take a long time to resolve.
I think clarity is needed on a number of points.
1. Whether or not the non-payment by DHSC of the sums due under the contract is linked to the ongoing proceedings.
2. If the award of the contracts was held to be unlawful, where does that leave ABDX? If the contract were to be declared void, does that mean DHSC does not need to pay (as there would legally be no contract)?
3. In such circumstances, what recourse, if any, would ABDX have vs DHSC given that ABDX has provided the tests and been left out of pocket .Presumably a damages claim for breach of contract would not be possible in circumstances where there was legally no contract. What other remedies would be open to ABDX?
There is still a lot of upside here potentially IMO if the AVCT lateral flow test gets orders and ABDX is enlisted to manufacture the test required to satisfy such orders. However, I am disappointed in the communication over the legal proceedings mentioned above and feel there is room for a lot more clarity over their potential implications for ABDX. From the trading update which crashed the SP a couple of months ago, I took it that there was simply a bill which was definitely due to ABDX and which would definitely be paid, but that DHSC were a bit disorganised. The existence of the judicial review proceedings make me wonder whether things are necessarily that straightforward as that. Are there any people on here from a legal background who can clarify?
on AVCT's LFT today. Will be on the market imminently, with market leading sensitivity. The more they sell, the more ABDX manufactures and the more cash rolls in to ABDX. De-risked from when this was 80p+ a fortnight ago.
Have just bought some at 56.37p. Seems a bargain for a trade over the coming weeks. DHSC are the Govt. They are not going anywhere and 100% will pay ABDX. With ABDX also being tied into manufacture AVCT's LFT, this seems a very low risk trade at this price.