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MKA is sitting on a large resource of something the world greatly needs, of global strategic importance given China's control of the current market. If MKA can get its licence, permits and funding (mainly debt) to start realising this resource, the SP will go up. A lot. We just need to be patient and wait for news of progress.
katstrangler, there are sound reasons why investors in BOOM like me have confidence in the SP going much higher. As I have stated on here before, based on where BOOM's 2021 revs were in June last year and where they ended up, BOOM appears likely to be on target for revs of $100M this year.
BOOM's MCAP is $260M - 2.6x those possible 2022 revs.
In late 2020, Amazon bought Wondery, a direct peer of BOOM, for $300M. Wondery's 2020 revs were $40M.
So, a direct peer abd competitor sold for 7.5x revs.
BOOM, after the last six weeks of falling SP, sits at perhaps 2.6x this year's likely revs.
It's more than rumour to suggest a takeover at £29 could be possible in due course. That would value BOOM at around $600M - 6x 2022 revs if BOOM hits $100M revs for this year. Still less than the 7.5 multiple achieved by Wondery. BOOM was already at $60M booked revs for the year by last month, with some of the traditionally best advertising booking months still to come. For the current SP of sub-£13 to be justified, in a takeover, BOOM would need to suffer a sudden reversal of its sustained growth through 2021/22 and/or be acquired for an exceptionally low current year revs multiple compared to any peers sold in recent times. There is no evidence supporting the former and the chairman is massively fiancially incentivised (through his 4.3% stake) not to support the latter.
was rightly viewed as derisory last summer, since which the company has gone from strength to strength and blown the then projected earnings figures out of the water.
I just wish I had cash free to add more shares at these prices, but this is already my biggest holding my some distance.
Tomorrow, I agree about £30+. Projected revs and comparisons with other recent podcaster takeovers support that. I was being conservative with £25 as a starting point for any conversation. Hopefully as others have said a bidding war will commence.
from AAQUA needs to be much much better than last July's derisory one - valued supposedly at £12 but with much of that made up of unlisted shares with the value transparency of magic beans.
Cash only this time and don't think about starting the conversation at less than £25 or it should be a case of get lost IMO.
On 22nd June last year, BOOM released a trading update confirming that they had booked advertising income of 99% of their then projected 2021 earnings. That was just over $40M. They ended up bringing in revs of just over $60M for the year. So total revs for 2021 were 50% more than revs booked as of late June.
It's 24th May today. BOOM has booked $66M of advertising revenue for this year already. It's not difficult to see why $100M+ revenue for 2022 is considered to be well on the cards here.
Then consider the revenue multiples of recent takeovers in the podcasting space and it is clear IMO how undervalued BOOM is right now by comparison to such peers.
that Michael Tobin has bought consistently since last year and has many £millions of shares. Two other directors have taken option exercisable at a price nearly 20% higher than the price right now. They obviously think that price will be one at which they can exercise those options in confidence of ultimately selling their shares for significantly more than that. Tobin continues to add.
Some people bought in here looking for a quick profit from an immediate takeover. Some such people will now be selling at a loss. It seems a curious strategy to me to say: "Oh no, the chairman is filling his boots with shares almost daily. I'd better sell mine."
Wondery was bought by Amazon in 2020 for 7.5 x revenues. BOOM's mcap today is less than 3.5 x a conservative estimate ($80M) of revs for this year. BOOM also grew in terms of weekly downloads at more than 2.5 x the rate of the rets of the US top 10 podcast publishers in the last 12 months.
The stock market is an efficient way of transferring money from the impatient to the patient. GLA.
The chairman owns more than 4% of the company. Round about £10 million worth of shareds. A few weeks ago, his holding was worth £15 million. He is so worried about this £/5million paper loss that he hasn't sold any shares and has been buying more just about every day for the last week. He knows more about this rapidly growing, profitable company's current state (since the tremendous update last month) than anybody on this board.
All of the above are facts.
They'll do me just fine.
If the very large trades at 8.27 this morning are sells, and the price would suggest they are, then somebody must really need the money. I don't think I'd be in a rush to offload truckloads of shares for 1520p when the company's non-exec chairman (who obviously knows a lot more about the company's current state than me and has £10 million worth of skin in the game), has bought three times in the last week and bought another £20k worth the previous day at 1660p a pop!
Great to see Michael Tobin resuming his spending, buying £50k worth of shares this morning. He hasn't sold a single share and owns 4.2% of the company. Should put to bed the speculation that the drop over the last week was due to "somebody knowing something". Nothing has changed at BOOM since last week. Still growing, still profitable, still a prime takeover target.
ElReverso, you can stick your pump and dump nonsense chat where the sun doesn't shine. If you had spent even five minutes researching this company, you would know that it is profitable, experiencing rapid growth in revenue and an obvious takeover target for numerous potential suitors at a price way in excess of that at which it sits today. Nothing has changed re this company since last week, when the price was circa 2150p. It has (wrongly imo) been dragged down by the tech rout in the USA, even though it is an ad-based revenue business rather than a subscription one - it being subscription based tech companies (e.g Netflix , Spotify etc) which are currently under particular pressure due to the squeeze on incomes. Podcasts are free to listeners and might be expected to do comparatively well when money is tight for consumers. BOOM remains my largest holding and I am content to sit this dip out. If BOOM achieves a very realistic $80M revs this year and was to be sold (at some point) for a similar multiple of revenues as Wondery was when Amazon bought them, then BOOM's would (at current USD /GPP exchange rate) sell for circa 3000p a share.
is sitting on a resource of potentially global strategic importance, meaning that one way or another iit is very likely to be funded to realise that. At that point, the company imo will be worth a lot more than it is now ( even adjusting for any dilution depending on how mine development is funded). In the meantime, the green filter button gets another run out.
At end of Q1 last year BOOM announced it had pre-booked ad revenue of more than 90% of its then forecast 2021 revenue. It's forecast 2021 revs at that time were $37 5 million, so it had circa $35 million pre-booked. That's just under 60% of BOOM's actual 2021 revenue of $60.2million.
At end of Q1 this year, BOOM has already got $60.5 million of ad revenue pre-booked. If that is 60% of the final total for this year, as at the same stage last year, then revenue is on target to be $100 million for 2022.
A takeover at 7.5 x that figure, as with Wondery in 2022, would equal a Sterling SP (at current exchange rate) of £35. IMO yesterday's figures indicate a lot of potential upside from here. Sitting on my hands.
BOOM's global downloads for March at a record high of 131 million, up 15% or so from Q4 2021.
More ad revenue booked for 2022 already than the total revenue achieved for 2021.
Quiet quarter for advertising out of the way.
BOOM looks very well set imo to achieve at least $90 million ad revenue this calendar year, being conservative.
As mentioned previously, when Wondery was taken over at the end of 2020, the price was 7.5 x 2020 revenues.
Based on above projected revenue for 2022 (which imo is quite conservative), a similar deal for BOOM would see a price of $675 million, or £518 million at current exchange rate. By my calculations, that would equate to a share price of between £31 and £32 a share. Even a takeover at 6 x such revenues would see a SP of between £25 and £26. I see a lot of upside from here and continue to sit on my hands awaiting a takeover, which must imo be very likely given BOOM's continued growth.
I would add that another ex-China RRE producer, MP materials, has a current Mcap of $9.56 Billion on revenues of $275 Million. MKA is not at the priction stage yet, and will need finance to get there, but MKA's current Mcap is just under £50million ($65 million). For those who wait until production, the Mcap here would seem to have the potential to increase well beyond the amount of any required dilution to finance Songwe. In the meantime, there is always the potential for takeover and, given Singwe's strategic importance and likely asset value, that could again imo be expected to be at a value potentially signifivantly in excess of the current Mcap.
Buying on a 500% spike is a terrible strategy, agreed. In fact, it almost guarantees big losses. The big rise here was gradually though and took more than a year. There's been a hiatus in news, hence the slide since Nov. However, tge bottom line is MKA is sitting on deposits of global strategic importance and is quite far down tge line toward exploiting them. MKA has a large amount of something the world needs and is one of very few significant holders of the resources in question out with Chinese control. There is imo huge value in that. I remain very confident that MKA will end up at a significantly higher SP and am waiting for that.
When Amazon bought Wondery at the end of 2020, it paid 7.5 x current year revenue.
BOOM's Q4 revenue in 2021 was $20.5M, up 20% on Q3 and up 141% on Q4 2020.
Even if revenue growth slows (which is a conservative assumption) 2022 revenue of $100M looks a strong possibility at this stage.
A sale at even 7 x such revenues = $700M, which is £533M at current exchange rate.
That equates to just over £33 a share. If Q1 revenues are up from Q4 2021 by even a couple of $million, then IMO, BOOM's board should not be selling for any less than the above price as the $100M revenue figure for 2022 would be very much on the cards. Exciting times to be a holder.
reads a lot better now that I have arranged for seven green boxes to appear on it from this morning's messages. Make that eight.