Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
I would say there is very very little chance of any bid being successful at anything like these levels. The AAA/AAQUA block don't control the 75% they would need to acquire all the shares. The SP is also now a lot lower than some of AAQUA's purchases so why in the world would they sell either if a third party bid materialised. I think we have a bit of a stalemate until market conditions allow the SP to rise to a MUCH more reasonable level at which major shareholders might be prepared to consider a bid. Immediately prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine the rumours were of multiple suitors eyeing bids well in excess of £20 a share. For the time being the world and the markets have changed, but that will not last forever and BOOM's fundamentals will outlast the current downturn IMO.
remain fantastic here. Rapidly growing. Profitable. Increasing cash pile.
The SP is at the mercy of the wider markets for the moment. A 15% plus fall on the back of yesterday's update is incredible really. The SP and mcap are now completely disconnected from the company performance. The positive is that as the company gets ever more ridiculously undervalued, the reversal when markets improve will be ever larger. GLA.
already hold shares in this company, would I be tempted to buy in at these levels? A resounding yes!
Like many many companies, its share price has suffered criminally in recent months. Unlike many, its fundamentals are so strong that it is an absolute steal at these prices. $90 millions revs for the year looking likely at this point. Profitable and increasing so. A growing cash pile in the bank. There is nothing not to like here and value will surely win out here.
raised too many questions. We had six tropical storms in s few months. That sounds a lot more like climate than weather.
Also, it was disclosed that 50km of roads need resurfaced in order to remain usable during storms. That's the equivalent of a road from Glasgow to Edinburgh. How much is that going to cost? Does the company have the money to do it? Is it going to be done before the next stormy season arrives?
Shishir totally glossed over this in his Proactive interview as if it was no big deal. The requirement urgently to spend a lot of money in order for operations to be able to continue in bad weather is obviously a big deal.
The continued colllapse and drift in SP is a totalky foreseeable result if these unanswered questions.
RNS also said botyom line positive by end of year, but not FOR the year. The silence over current profit or loss / cash burn is disappointing.
The company still has massive potential but things will only improve for us holders imo when the cash position is clarified and if necessary resolved.
A very disappointing period.
I agree. The AAQUA block have enough shares to block a lowball bid from a third party. They don't have a high enough percentage to force through a lowball offer of their own (as we saw with the failed AAA bid last year). The likelihood of a lowball takeover bid from anyone being successful if therefor very low imo.
The good news is it's in everyone's interest for the SP to rise a lot. If / when it does, AAA and co might have a chance of launching a successful bid (if - a big if - they have the means to make the bid in cash only). Equally, a third party bid might come in which the AAQUA block are willing to accept, especially if they are not in a position to make a realistic / successful bid of their own.
Good results / numbers and improving market conditions are what's needed to get the SP back to where it should be. The former look very likely. GLA..
GumT, the business is solid and I agree it would be foolish to sell at these levels. The SP clearly has much more upside than downside from here. Value will out imo. It is a profit making, rapidly growing business (outstripping its peers significantly in terms of growth) with cash in the bank, massively backed by its Chairman, who owns 4.3 % and has bought on the open market umpteen times over the last year.
for LTH's. Good news to hear from Will Dawes that discussions will continue on the finance side over the coming months.
Once the finance package is in place and the extent of dilution is known, this will really take off. (It is a positive that the focus is on international banks, which suggests a significant element of the finance will be sought as debt).
Until then, there may be more opportunities to build our positions at prices which we can be pretty confident will look very low in the medium to longer term. The process of de-risking has taken a good step forward today.
is now 10% or so lower than it was in early April 2020, when no flights were taking place and nobody know if or when they would again and whether or not airlines would survive in the interim.
The position now is that 6% of Easyjet's flights for July are to be cancelled because it doesn't have the staff to meet the demand. These are short terms issues which will surely be resolved.
The current share price is a great investment opportunity imo. The lower it goes, the greater the opportunity.
GLA.
Can anyone with expertise shed light on a couple of points?
On reviewing the statutory takeover code, it looks to me that there are two possible structures tor a takeover: a contractual offer or a scheme of arrangement.
Under a contractual offer, the bidder would need acceptance from 50%+ of shareholders to take control. They'd need acceptance from 90%+ in order to force all shareholders to sell to them.
In other words, if holders of 10%+ of the shares do not accept the offer, they'll keep their shares and remain BOOM shareholders after a successful takeover.
Under the scheme model, a bidder needs approval of holders of 75% of shares in order fir the takeover to go through. If the 75% threshold is hit, all 100% of shares in the company must be sold to the bidder at the takeover price.
75% is going to be very hsrd for any AAQUA/AAA/Candy axis to hit.
Likewise they can block any scheme bid from somebody else.
This would mean any takeover is likely to be a contractual arrangement. That being so, any minority shareholders such as those on this board would not have to sell unless holders of 90%+ of shares approved the deal.
Have I got this right? Happy to be corrected if not. Any thoughts welcome as the t/o rules are pretty complicated imo.
It depends on whether your investment period is five minutes or more. Yesterday's rns has seen the sell price go up 10% from y'day's low. That's before we have seen the feasibility study. This share is in the process of being derisked and I expect the SP to reflect that in due course. MKA is sitting on a globally-strategic resource for which tge market is expected to expand massively during this decade. It's just appointeda CFO who has taken a mine in Africa through development. The Malawi minister for mining visitee the site last week and stated he was impressed by what he saw. Not what I would xall being 'fooked'.
Surely this can't fall much lower without an almighty pile-in with investors throwing the kitchen sink at it. The disconnect between mcap and company performance is beyond silly now imo.
Remember, less than a year ago,a £12.50 per share tajeover was mooted and (rightly) rejected as derisory. Compamy performance has since improved hugely from its then already impressive level. Ridiculous. GLA.
Massively undervalued by the day.
Now valued at less rhan 2 x likely 2022 revenue, despite consistently stellar news.
It will surely reverse in a big way.
Have sold none and will buy more if sinks to even more ridiculous levels.
GLA.
I lost money on this share. I was fortunate to sell my holding in March at 50-odd p just after the sudden run up. I kicked myself for not selling that day when it hit 70p, which was break even for me.
I am stunned by what has happened here. I think after this I will probably never invest in a pre-clinical pharma company again. If this outcome can happen here, where there seemed to be so many shots at success, then any such pharma just looks too risky now. Thoughts with all who have lost large sums here. I would advise to take a step back and not rush to chase losses.
The same as we have known for some time.
AVCT has a drug which aims to package Dox in a larger molecule from which Dox which is only released in a tumour, when it encounters a particular chemical which occurs in higher levels in tumors than healthy tissue, thus sparing healthy tissue and enabling higher and more repeated doses of Dox.
Phase 1a of a clinical trial is in progress. A dose escalation has been implemented. A second one is planned.
This would tend to infer that Dox is not being released all over the body. That would be good news.
However, the success or failure of AVCT's drug depends entirely on whether (and to what extent) the drug cleaves in a tumour and releases the Dox there in a sufficient dose to be clinically effective.
If it releases all or most of the Dox at the tumour site, bingo. Magical news in the quest to fight cancer and quids in for shareholders.
If it releases some Dox at the tumour site, but only partially (i.e. only partial cleaving occurs), it's a question of whether the opportunity for repeated doses and higher doses outweighs the lower level of Dox released at the tumour. More research required in that case.
If it doesn't release Dox at the tumour at all , it is an innovation which simply enables Dox to pass through the body unabsorbed by healthy tissue or tumour tissue. That would be failure.
Time will tell, but imo none of knows which of the three scenarios above is playing out.
As an investment (i.e. waiting for the actual outcome) it is clearly high risk v potentially very high reward imo.
GLA.
I expect the SP will creep up until just before the AGM and then drop back as soon as it is clear that there is no "big reveal" today. I'm not sure why anyone would expect a big reveal today anyway. The AGM needs to be held regardless of what the company is doing at the time. The outcome of a clinical trial (or publication thereof) can't be scheduled to fit in with that timetable. Equally the absence of any big reveal today does not imply that the trial is not going well. The trial will be done when it is done and until then we just need to be patient. Hopefully some info of interest comes out of the Q&A but anything significant would need to be the subject of an RNS first.
I think the RNS has been received fairly poorly because it could be perceived to introduce some uncertainty. There is a delay - not a big one - at the 18kt plant caused by weather. Previously, one tropical storm and its minimal effects on TGR was the subject of an RNS. Today we were told there have been six tropical storms in six months and that they have been pretty disruptive, leaving roads inundated in Poddar's words today and causing the delay. There will be some concerns that as the delay is due to a factor largely out with the company's control (weather) there could be a repeat at some stage. This then leads to concerns over the length of the current cash runway and how the content of today's RNS might affect that, especially as the RNS talks about metalling or black topping 50km of roads - which would presumably be quite expensive to do and was not previously to my knowledge a stated planned capital outlay. I think the market may have responded better a more comprehensive company update rather than a narrower ops update. A company update might have mentioned the graphene composite project or the planned Mozambique acquisitions or the cash position for example, even if just to say there was no negative update. There may be a number of materially positive developments ongoing which could have been mentioned in the RNS but weren't. When something is not mentioned that has been previously, there is a temptation for the market to wonder if that might be a concern - especially when the market is as jumpy and depressed as at present. At the moment, I think if a company is releasing an RNS it should chuck in every positive it can. I am a little disappointed that more was not covered in the RNS but still confident that this company is on its way to much higher production and revenues and hopefully before very long. GLA.
PS: for clarity, the reference in a post below to an expected storm in the coming week is from an RNS of more than four months ago and relates to a tropicsl storm which occured then. The company later confirmed via rns that the storm caused no material damage to any installations and that operations were paused during the storm and resumed as soon as it had passed.
The current SP absolutely has not priced in the future. Far from it. The company's stated programme is to ramp up production to 84k by 2024. If that were priced in the SP woukd be multiples of its current level. That's inconvenient to anyone seeking to talk down the share in the hope of an even lower entry point.