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Any hopes that BMR will retain any ownership of the project are fanciful. BMR's balance sheet will be decimated - I would have thought that it will have to write-off all the intangibles in the balance sheet.
Best case is a royalty stream for BMR through the life of the project. Perhaps sufficient to cover AB's salary and the office, It's a sh*tshow.
There is an increasing chance that the license will be revoked again and JLP will also be out. It's all well and good JLP saying that they are in discussions with BMR, but it's their discussions with the ministry that are important.
Genuine sympathies for the many decent, mistreated and unfortunate LTH's. I'd love to hear Vigenere's take on this.
Bryn, 100% yes there is $2bn+ value in the tailings. I can't comment on the cost of recovering that value and whether it is economic to recover it.
It won't be a merger, imo. I think it will just be a delisting. BMR may well sell the project (or Enviro) to JLP, perhaps for a small upfront payment and a future royalty stream.
Makes sense. JLP will require patience as the tailings game is a long and bumpy ride. But they have as good a chance as any. They have technical skills and experience in the management team, are credible in front of institutional investors and banks (I sat in on one of their pitch meetings), have a credit line and seem to be able to find projects. They really seem to be able to optimise processes to deliver as good a return as possible.
And a requirement for big cajones.
I suppose this isn't really my game! I can see how you could make 10x here in a month or two. Or lose the lot. Good timing is (nearly) everything.
I still would not invest here. If you like the project, JLP should be the home for your cash. BMR cant do the project without them (so if BMR hits big, so does JLP), but BMR can do the project without BMR (should BMR fail, and assuming JLP can pinch the license). Plus you have some downside protection in that JLP has other operations. And despite what you read on the JLP board, LC is a talented guy. Perhaps that slightly limits your upside, but I really don't see BMR winning.
I can't see how the plan involves staying on the market. Otherwise why wait til the last possible day? But really I dont have any idea as to what AB has in mind. Only that it all feels very contrived.
There could be other factors. Perhaps WHI weren't getting paid? Cash must be tight and in those circumstances it isn't easy for a director to sign a commitment for a new nomad. Most would want a 12 month commitment. But, I'm still guessing.
Eric, if no new NOMAD is appointed, I think it safe to assume that WHI were encouraged by AB in order to manufacture a delisting. If a new NOMAD is appointed, I will consign that conspiracy theory to the bin. Not long now til we find out.
JLP won't yet even commit to the project. There is no asset value without the license, so it still all comes back to whether that can be sorted. Then all is possible.
I agree that an offer for the company from JLP is unlikely, but BMR being private doesn't alter whether JLP would offer cash or shares. It would just reduce the price, IMO.
I haven't spoken with AB, but delisting looks more likely than not from my viewpoint. I am guessing that AB encouraged WHI to resign (otherwise, why did they do it now?). He said that it had been on the cards for some time. Perhaps this has been his plan for a good while? At least he wouldn't have to read these message boards continually (deservedly) hammering him.
I've read many of your abusive comments. Remarkably, you are perhaps a bigger buyer of your own stock than you are even of BMR.
I wish you and all others the best of luck, Brynjon.
I really dont see why it matters to JLP if BMR goes private. Their interest is in the project, making it profitable and earning dividends. They have no interest in trading BMR shares. That's the difference from many PI's who would like the option of trading the shares once a profitable project is reflected in the BMR share price.
That 'ownsership' of the tailings is transient. It rests with whomever has the license. BMR for now. The market is not daft. The vanadium is currently an irrelevance.
Bring, he can't delist now. Would require shareholder consent. Such consent is not required if you are kicked off the market for non-compliance.
I think Vignere is right about the plan not involving staying on AIM. That would explain AB's behaviour.
Ignore the license issues at your peril. In terms of what would be the value of BMR with the Vanadium? Take a look at JLP. They have effectively more than 50% interest in Kabwe and the market is not interested at the moment. Too much still to be sorted. You are way ahead of where you should be right now. If you are that horny for the project then just buy back into JLP.