focusIR May 2024 Investor Webinar: Blue Whale, Kavango, Taseko Mines & CQS Natural Resources. Catch up with the webinar here.
Defensive is, I think, the wrong word. I know the challenges faced by this kind of work. Tailings recovery is not an easy thing to do profitably. Sure, the technology is relatively ancient and the process is well understood, but optimisation work takes time and requires much testing and tweaking. I think you underestimate the challenges. Kabwe benefits from great grades, but it is a small dump meaning that it has to be treated with a small plant. The planned throughput was tiny, so this puts pressure on margins. The original work is next to useless as the opex has doubled since then. I'm not sure that answers all your points as I don't understand all of your comment. My main point is that there is no such thing as a straightforward tailings project. It is waste material for a reason.
If JLP had fair run at this it would have been fine. They arrived around the time that the ministry had removed the license for non-performance and then reissued it with very tight conditions. They are working in an uneccessarily complicated situation. Even they may not be able to save the situation, but indications from LC are currently promising. I hear different, but not necessarily reliably.
You are wrong to blame JLP for 'tardiness'. BMR's process was unprofitable. JLP are not going to start a project that doesn't recover their investment. So they had to start again. Plus the issues with the license. More progress has been made by JLP in four months than by BMR in 10 years. If this project works it will be down to JLP. If it fails it will be down to BMR.
I used to tell the NOMAD the news and they believed me. I was never asked to provide contracts or other verification. Listing was a whole different ball game. I had to verify virtually every f*cking word.
I used to put out RNS's. Sure, it's 20+ years ago, but I don't remember huge amounts of diligence by the NOMAD. I don't really remember any. I think the contents of the RNS is the responsibility of the directors.
I am sure that they can advise and make a few calls. In preparation for their appointment. Particularly as the share is suspended. Most NOMADs do more than just pure nominated advisor work.
P.s. interesting, as always, to hear AB's thoughts. I don't have the history of his apparent misinformation, so tend to take them at face value. Thanks, bring. My only negative thought from the summary remains how he is distancing himself from progress on the project, pointing you to JLP. He is CEO and should take responsibility, rather than just setting up a scapegoat in the event of an unsatisfactory outcome.
I don't see the NOMAD issue as a big problem. I doubt that a NOMAD wants to be appointed whilst the share is suspended. The appointment will be finalised and confirmed on the day that the shares are relisted. In the meantime, the NOMAD is probably doing the duties in the background until that day. I just remain keen to see the license secured for the long-term and the understand how this project can make money. Satisfying the license conditions must surely still be the main hurdle to the relisting?
Sumoskier - what if recovery is not possible profitably? I only ever see calculations based on revenue less randomn discounts. Nobody has much to go on when trying to take account the cost of the plant and the cost of running it. BMR's original method quickly became unprofitable due to the increase in reagent prices. JLP seem to think they have found a way with scale economies and an improved process, but who's to know whether it amounts to much more than a nice operating contract for JLP? Will the JV company also make money?
Betting on profit from Vanadium recovery is currently nothing more than a punt. It could be lucrative, but investors cannot make an informed calculation at the moment. Vigenere is assuming 100% recovery rates, which never happens. 70% might be a safer assumption, but I really have no idea either. And neither of us has any idea of the capex and opex costs. JLP seem to be progressing with some confidence, but that is all I have to go on. And license risks remain. Perhaps less so for JLP who can maybe pick it up in the event that it is removed from BMR.
This isn't a fan club - people will disect and speculate after all news. I guess I should just let this go now.
Most of the comments are about the recent rns.
We will have to look forward to something positive to write about.
Thanks KlueLoss, I will check that out!
With BMR leading the charge? Nobody had yet managed to explain how you can deramp a share that is suspended.
Anyone read this? https://www.amazon.com/gp/aw/sitb/B07BN4D56C?ref=sib_dp_aw_kd_udp
I saw little merit in the project at 5tph and with JH's process. It seems that JLP agreed. 30tph is not particularly exciting either, but jlp seem to think it can work. And please don't put words into my text. I have not written an epitaph - just listed some risks and potential outcomes. Feel free to keep wearing the positive hat - that's your right.