Member Info for SickOfTheRatRace

Ste1010 - Unfortunately Halifax do nothing except remove the requirement for you to transfer the funds out and refund them into the ISA account. The phone transfer (which costs £25 by the way) is basically them selling the shares (which you can do yourself), transferring the funds between the two accounts (which you can only do by withdrawing to your card then funding the other account when the funds clear) and then buying the shares.

I have done a transfer from the regular trading account to ISA and my experience of them is unlike other providers who will deal with an MM to ensure you get a very small buy/sell spread to minimise losses they will just sell and buy like a normal punter. Of course you do save the 3 days or so that the funds transfers take as they do that bit for you.

Remember that we have the Crux interview to look forward to with Fortune. Hopefully this will provide some additional information on strategy going forward.

Personally I am really looking forward to it, the last interview was the best Fortune has ever done and hope this is more of the same.

Further to this, if we look at the whole text of the Lemur section of the quarterly update, we see the following:

"Preliminary findings of the coal mine optimisation study, which looked at incorporating the underground portion earlier than previously planned, show a favourable outcome. The DFS will progress on this basis. Lemur is in the process of inviting technical advisors to submit proposals to conduct the DFS.

"Negotiations for the construction of the power station with Sinohydro, a subsidiary of state-owned PowerChina, are at an advanced stage and are expected to be concluded by the end of the year.

"In July 2019, Lemur conducted the route site survey for the transmission line together with potential bidders for the EPC contract for the transmission line in Madagascar. Final EPC bid documents for the transmission line were submitted in September 2019. Lemur will select the preferred bidder during Q4 2019.

"The Social and Environmental Impact Assessment fieldwork is ongoing. Lemur is currently conducting the drilling programme for the specialist studies for the SEIA. Submission to the Ministry of Energy is still expected in Q4 2019.

"Engagement with potential lenders for project finance is still ongoing with the objective of achieving financial close during the second half of 2020. "

This again shows that the project is progressing well. Proposals to conduct the DFS, negotiations for power station construction, selecting the preferred bidder for the transmission cabling, SEIA ongoing, engaging lenders for project finance.

The days of Lemur as a subsidiary of Bushveld are certainly numbered but I have every confidence this project will continue to the end. The main question will be at what stage will a spin off or sale be most attractive for Bushveld shareholders. If the platform is to become standalone then an admission document will of course need to be prepared. To allow potential further investors to see the value of the project I would expect this to therefore happen when the project economics are all finalised - the most important part being the cost of funding which may be met in part by the additional shares created in the float. We also cannot rule out Sinhydro deciding that rather than just construct the station they may wish to take ownership of the project entirely.

Either way, there is value to shareholders to be unlocked.

I disagree that Lemur is dead.

The last line is the telling one: "Bushveld Minerals is exploring various options for Lemur Holdings to operate as a standalone coal and energy focused platform."

That tells investors everything we need to know. Lemur will not be a part of Bushveld Minerals. Bushveld will be entirely focused on Vanadium products and battery/electrolyte supply with Bushveld Energy. They are looking to do exactly the same as what they did with Afritin, spin it off as a standalone entity to concentrate on that focused area.

This has been the goal for a long time. If we go all the way back to December 2016 for example, the RNS on 13th December regarding HoT states the following:

"This development is aligned with our long-stated strategy to establish Greenhills Resources Limited and Lemur Resources Limited as attractive stand-alone platforms with quality strategic partners and strong dedicated management teams to deliver long term shareholder value. For Greenhills this means consolidating a critical mass of mineable, low-cost resources with a near term production profile while for Lemur this means securing a quality power purchase agreement and an IPP license for a thermal coal-based power generation play in Madagascar. "

The key part being "long-stated strategy to establish Greenhills Resources Limited and Lemur Resources Limited as attractive stand-alone platforms"

Now in terms of the RNS today, "various options" means one of two in my eyes. Either the project will be sold entirely or it will be spun into it's own listing. How ironic that would be to see Lemur once again listed as a standalone entity?

Lemur is low priority, it is progressing along with Prince at the helm and of course Bushveld management have had more pressing matters to deal with. One thing we can be sure of is that if spun off it will be done at the right time and for maximum benefit and I am sure we all hope the lessons of the Afritin spin off will be learnt and avoided this time around.

The 2p was based on the 50m payment from Sinotec. That payment is not being taken at the moment so don't expect a 2p dividend yet.

The potential money here is in an asset sale, lots of figures bandied about but 20p+ seems a safe bet based on other similar sales mentioned in the video interview.

However even without the asset sale, development of Monchetundra is worth more than the current price just in regular mining.

We need to be on SETs to have a dual listing as well so either way we are going to be on SETs in the not too distant future.

IIRC SETs was also a requirement to be in the AIM 50.

Absolutely Peter, this week is the biggest ever in terms of news for BMN.

In terms of EUA, a 10 bag from these levels on an asset sale is difficult to ignore, particularly when the company are doing everything they can to tell investors it's on, without being actually able to tell investors it's on.

I would like to know where all the shares are coming from. If there are 400m shares free float (after the major investors) I am sure I can find you enough PI's with an average of 1,000,000 each to meet that figure - the potential outcome of 25p plus means enough sticky hands at the moment is a given.

You can probably find over 200m shares just by asking PI's on this board what they are holding.

Ibyb EUA is going to multibag x50 from 0.5p, the asset sale is worth at least 25p.

Will CASP get to £5.00?

JezTheFez if you are seeing the trajectory as down then your chart must be upside down.

Good posts BBN. How about if the cornerstone investor is suddenly discovered to be Yellow Dragon. Then how about that Cornerstone investment and the later 20% threshold investment by BMN suddenly then becomes a controlling interest. Then how about that controlling interest becomes a buy out by BMN/BE converting the Yellow Dragon interest into BMN shares.

That there is the end goal. A truly vertically integrated platform from mining through to battery deployment with BMN/BE controlling the whole thing from mining, refining, electrolyte creation, battery build, leasing contract and 25 years of battery maintenance/support per unit.

I think this has been the plan for some time and when it happens the story will be fully told. When the situation is realised then this really will be our retirement share.

“AVALON IS THE FIRST COMPANY TO DELIVER A FLOW BATTERY THAT SHIPS FROM THE FACTORY AS A COMPLETE FUNCTIONAL SYSTEM, ABLE TO DELIVER ENERGY ON DEMAND WITHIN HOURS OF DELIVERY.”

This is a very interesting statement in terms of the investment from Bushveld. Clearly Avalon are using this as part of their USP, buy from us and get it fully prebuilt and ready to go, just plug in.

The question would therefore be what is the point of Bushveld shipping electrolyte to the Avalon facility only for it to be shipped back to SA in a battery for local installation. This raises two possibles:

1. BMN do not intend to use Avalon batteries in SA, but intend to continue with UET. Electrolyte shipped outside of the country will be for worldwide non-SA installations of Avalon equipment, electrolyte kept in house will be for batteries either from UET or Cellcube or indeed both. If the goal is multiple strategic investments into different VRFB suppliers (to ensure security of supply in both directions) why limit to batteries from only one vendor?
2. BMN already know that they intend to use Avalon batteries in SA. They have already planned the assembly plant next to the electrolyte facility, and later down the track the 5% investment will turn into 10% and 20% and then into news that Avalon intend to construct a local SA factory for their batteries, filled with electrolyte from the BMN plant next door for direct shipping to customers. BMN will run the VRFB factory in Avalons name before later taking over Avalon completely and rebranding. The batteries will be built initially with Avalon parts and BMN electrolyte using local BMN employed labour. The natural progression being the Avalon parts become Bushveld ones.

The primary driver for this for me is why would you invest in a company to take your electrolyte if you have no intention of using their VRFB's for your own local deployments, particularly as you have already come up with a leasing model already successfully deployed to an Avalon project. Shipping electrolyte whether wet or dry for thousands of miles only for it to be put into a battery that is then shipped all the way back to SA seems nonsensical when the USP can easily be maintained by building Avalon batteries in a SA factory next door to the BMN electrolyte plant. Are we expected to believe that BMN will work so closely with Avalon on leasing, strategic investment, put members on their board and electrolyte supply to then say they won't take any Avalon batteries for local deployment?

For me the plan seems clear. In the not too distant future Avalon batteries will be built in SA using BMN labour.

It has indeed, it was mentioned in a previous interview and the cost was given which I believe was a further $20m to fit the electrolyte plant with facilities for VRFB assembly.

Yes but some would argue that the Mokopane right is just a right to obtain the licence (confusing) and the Vanchem deal hasn't actually completed, so until we have the final final final final RNS to say we have absolutely 100% completed everything and have the actual document then we haven't got the right or own the plant yet.

It's as good as done of course, but not done done.

A 1p dividend would represent a 4% yield at a 25p share price which is certainly healthy.

This would cost the company £11.2m based on the current shares in issue plus any distribution costs.

This is not to spark any "we should pay it/we shouldn't pay it" at this point in the company lifecycle debate which have been done to death, just a statement of cost.

Importance of V price overstated - Mon 16:33

Let's not forget that with the Vanchem addition meaning circa 4,000mtv of production even if we assume the higher cost guidance of $19,500 a tonne then even at the current Chinese price of $35,000 that is still $62m profit (£48.2m). I ignore the European price as we sell little if anything to that market. That calculation assumes no Nitrovan premium either.

I think the importance of V prices, whilst of course they do matter, is being overstated.

What seems clear is that Bushveld were not in the position of being able to significantly capitalise on $140,000+ prices last year so those who thought the original numbers were based on that and therefore expected a massive drop in the next results were mistaken.

What is also clear as we enter 2020 is that a period of lower V prices is likely to stimulate significant VRFB demand. The current price comes at a time where Eskom and the World Bank are looking to procure/invest a large sum of money in battery storage - perfect timing for them with lower pricing but perfect timing for Bushveld to take advantage of this with fast tracked electrolyte production at Vanchem whilst the new plant at East London is being built.

Investors would do well to remember that they are invested in a company in the lowest quartile V production cost that is also involved in a business that takes full advantage of low V pricing.

In short, heads we win, tails we win.

Let's not forget that with the Vanchem addition meaning circa 4,000mtv of production even if we assume the higher cost guidance of $19,500 a tonne then even at the current Chinese price of $35,000 that is still $62m profit (£48.2m). I ignore the European price as we sell little if anything to that market. That calculation assumes no Nitrovan premium either.

I think the importance of V prices, whilst of course they do matter, is being overstated.

What seems clear is that Bushveld were not in the position of being able to significantly capitalise on $140,000+ prices last year so those who thought the original numbers were based on that and therefore expected a massive drop in the next results were mistaken.

What is also clear as we enter 2020 is that a period of lower V prices is likely to stimulate significant VRFB demand. The current price comes at a time where Eskom and the World Bank are looking to procure/invest a large sum of money in battery storage - perfect timing for them with lower pricing but perfect timing for Bushveld to take advantage of this with fast tracked electrolyte production at Vanchem whilst the new plant at East London is being built.

Investors would do well to remember that they are invested in a company in the lowest quartile V production cost that is also involved in a business that takes full advantage of low V pricing.

In short, heads we win, tails we win.

It is nothing short of a scandal that a single buyer is allowed to accumulate 15m shares in multiple transactions whilst the share price is held in a range to allow them to do so. The same buyer who was a seller previously whilst the share price was permitted to free fall whilst they were doing so.

If PI's put in orders for 15m shares the price would quite rightly rocket.

With respect to all at Bushveld we have seen numerous presentations on the benefits of VRFB's.

What we need to start seeing now are announcements of meeting those targeted mandates for energy storage, i.e. real projects where we will be either supplying the partner VRFB and electrolyte or just the electrolyte.

B.E. cannot dine out on non-income generating presentations for ever.

Of course some of this may be dependent on completion of the Vanchem deal in terms of having facilities to manufacturer said electrolyte so news on completion will of course be welcomed in the next couple of weeks.

Looking forward to B.E. news in the Q3 update.

FTSE brings tighter regulation and of course a level of prestige. It also unlocks access to capital and investments by tracker funds as well as less risk averse investors particularly if we are paying a dividend at the time.

As we move on the journey to a mid-sized miner I believe it will only be a matter of time before we make the move. AIM has served it's purpose and given BMN access to funding whilst fledgling, now we are effectively self funded we could be best served elsewhere going forward.