RE: Fly or Fall18 Jan 2024 12:14
Back on topic of the thread for a sec.
"Of course they meet early Feb, you need to line them up with the JR appeal "
No, you can't purposely line them up with anything just to suit yourself. No more than you can go back and change the peaks and troughs of the sp, as shown on a chart. They will never change. They are a graphical representation of the history of sentiment on any given time frame. All you can do is draw a best fit trend line hitting as many of the highs or lows over a given period. I can choose to ignore intra day spikes as they are outliers, as they are significantly askew from other observations. The longer the period and the more repeated hits you get on those trend lines the better its veracity. A trend is only a trend until something comes along that is a better fit. Like flares. :) The shorter the time frame the more likely it is change. But confirmed trends over months and years give you a fair indication of how things have panned out. And to a degree, an indication of how they "might" continue. It's not an exact science, after all. Just a tool.
This is the long term chart that Lottie refers.
https://invst.ly/131p3b
Nobody can go back and change it. The upper and lower trends just happen to converge around the third week in February. I don't honestly know the date of the JR without checking. I have an idea it's February march time. Gawd only knows when and if they get the finance deal sorted. I can't aim the trend line for anything I think might happen in the future. They cross where they cross. If you move them to suit something, then they don't fit with the given data. You might get away with that sort of manipulation over a short period. Many try that and constantly change their POV. Don't think you can get away with that for longer time frames. imo
Compare that chart to one that shows significant news activity over the same period.
https://invst.ly/131pez
We have had more and more contracts of increasing value and indications of better and better prospects in the future. Yet over that time, it's done what? Has it bucked that trend? Besides obvious spikes, that is. And how did things go after those much hyped up spikes. More of the same, I would say. More importantly, and I think the most important thing, how did you percieve it was going at the time and what was your reaction to any given news item, contract, warm words from JW.
I know what I did. And was happy to rely on the chart for guidance rather than listen to the overwhelming noise of others.
And, I will continue to do so. :)