Member Info for shychap

Thank you AquaeSulis01. Having read this week that AI is creating new antibiotics, I need to take it more seriously. But have you asked the right questions?

For example, AFAIK, there have been no clues that Axis-ps or Axis-ac can be delivered in capsule, gummy or any formulation other than powder sachets – production machinery for which exists and is running. Also, I gather that Axis-ac won't be launched initially.

Nor did Ashman respond positively to the suggestion that production of these products be brought in-house. If that does happen, it looks likely to be in the long term, and logically after the initial two-year trial agreement assuming all goes well.

And it looks like you may have asked AI to work backwards from a £4m budget. Can it not work forwards given the number of stores, likely order size per store, number of individual product packs, likely sell-through rate, etc? The AI numbers looks to me to be way too high for what is effectively a trial in 200 stores.

"Another view expressed is from warrants."

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They did receive cash from warrants but that would have been accounted for in Singer's cash estimate of £4.1m. SBTX did have to provide for a £500k defcon to Dermatonics if they exceeded expectations – which they clearly didn't. So perhaps that money has been released from escrow and now shows up in cash.

Some of those subscribers might not be supporting the AGM resolution to re-elect Ashman and his chairman.

You are correct, Theanalyzer, and that would have made the FY25 forecast for BTS and Dermatonics £4.91m combined. Add to that the £0.4m forecast for Axis-ps and we get to £5.3m (plus Croda revenues) - which is the number Ashman has reassuringly repeated over the course of the year. If they only manage to get to £4.5m, that would still be a shortfall of 15%.

And if they have included any Croda revenues in the group forecast then the shortfall is higher still.

They knew at least 6 weeks ago that they were going to miss forecast by a material amount. Why did they not issue a trading update at the time, as required by the regulations?

In the FY24 results RNS, SBTX forecast FY25 revenues of £2.91m for Dermatonics (with EBITDA of £0.7m) and £3.0m for BTS (EBITDA £0.45m)…and ever since, Ashman has repeatedly stated that progress in all pillars was in line with management expectations. That would have given us £5.91m in 2025 from these two subsidiaries alone.

But assuming they only manage to meet the lower end of this new forecast, group revenue will only be £4.5m in FY25. So, even if zero revenue from elsewhere, that would be a miss of £1.41m – which being almost 25% below guidance should have forced a trading update before now.

This generously assumes no revenue from Axis-ps and no revenue in the £4.5m forecast included from Croda. However, the shortfall is actually greater since Axis-ps must be included in the group figure. And considerably greater if, heaven forbid, they have included Croda revenue in the group figure too.

I must have missed it but I can't find any analysis of the ore they have mined. Or are they keeping quiet on Au grades?

"Since the brain-skin connection is complex and not fully understood, brands must be cautious about overstating their claims. Rigorous clinical testing and clear, transparent communication will be critical to gaining consumer trust."

https://www.crodabeauty.com/en-gb/trends/neurocosmetics

Https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-14996451/Insomnia-breakthrough-experts-discover-key-driver-sleep-problem-ruins-millions-lives.html

"Incidentally, how can Elrico possibly know that Ashman having 'overstepped with public comments' was unintentional?"

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He doesn't. It's doubtless true that Ashman told him that but that doesn't make it true. It's entirely possible that Ashman has been using Elrico as a faithful/unwitting stooge to spread misinformation.

Infrastructure stalwart posts excellent HY results.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/hill-and-smith--hils/half-year-results/9048641

Excellent HY results today.

https://www.investegate.co.uk/announcement/rns/persimmon--psn/half-year-results/9048623

I assume that we PIs doing daily searches for Zenakine are the main reason for this listing.

FY Trading Update:

"Total housing completions increased by 14.3% to 8,749 homes (2024 - 7,654) at an overall average selling price of around £316,000 (2024 - £307,909), both slightly ahead of previous guidance."

"Housing revenue rose by 17% to over £2.76bn (2024 - £2,356.7m) and the underlying operating margin is expected to approach 11% (2024 - 10.0%)."

Ashman gives Elrico BS and Elrico believes it and reports it as fact.

"So don't forget come the AGM in December we all have the option to finally vote him out"

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Presumably we will but let's see if annual re-election policy changes…

Belgrano, the CEO has stopped ramping/communicating because he has just trousered £4m and doesn't need Mr Market for the foreseeable future. It's also possible that the current depressed SP suits him or his mates…or Croda.

Since he has failed in his alleged promise to correct the Singer note, to upload more Q&As to IMC, to deliver Croda numbers last month, etc, etc, I suppose he must be too busy to waste time communicating with us.

But be careful what you wish for regarding back-channel briefings - behind a paywall or not - because it looks increasingly likely that Ashman has used those channels to mislead and misinform PIs. Those briefings - which have cost some PIs money by buying on a false spike - need to be taken with a pinch of salt until we can see the whites of his eyes in an RNS.

"This post is for paid subscribers"

Commercial link to paywall site with no warning reported.

"Material growth in Group's key markets, particularly within the new-build residential market, with UK brick deliveries including imports in the period up by 13% year-on-year"

Thanks for the link - which was not public when I checked previously.

There seems to be a lot of navel-gazing going on, as if somehow my criticism of an interview were important when it wasn’t. Only SBTX is important in this parish. But my main criticism was clearly aimed at Ashman for not broadcasting investor information to all investors. It is simply wrong that any investor should have to pay for answers; and there are a number of ways that he could have disseminated the information without requiring a relative handful of investors to pay for it.

That said, Elrico appears to accept that his interview with Ashman could have been improved.

Because Elrico sounds like a bit of a rough diamond yet writes like Jane Austen, I have also wondered if his by-lined pieces are actually penned by his son. Not a big thing: just curiosity.

And I have certainly objected when this board is used by his vigilantes to lure mug punters on optimistic journeys to his toll booth. None of his salesmen ever bothers to add that coin will be required at the other end. Why not be courteous, considerate and honest? And at the same time, why not put a restraining leash on the cult members who like to pollute this board with lies about its contributors? I doubt that many people will take the Lemming seriously until his crew stop trying to insult non-members and focus instead on SBTX.

But I don’t take much issue with this article. He can write what he wants as long as he doesn’t tell lies. He does intentionally misconstrue some of my comments but I can’t be bothered to take him to task for that.

And he does persist with the peculiar notion that I should be discussing his article there instead of here. It’s a peculiar notion partly because I have never commented on his site since I suspected that free-trialers weren’t allowed to; partly because I didn’t want to risk exposing my email address to his cult, some of whom I don’t like; partly because his site is the antithesis of a level playing field; and most of all because I had been unable to read said article until now – as Elrico can doubtless confirm from his logs.

I have also stated that Elrico and other paywall owners have every right to charge whatever their research and advice is worth. He even has every right to charge for his interviews with Ashman – which Ashman is 100% wrong to grant.

I hope this very tedious topic can be put to bed. I doubt anyone here is interested in it, including me.

"Dermatonics fully integrated and performing as expected" according to the March half year report.