Member Info for shychap

Looking good here:

"· The Group expects to report an approximate 16% increase in revenue to £65.9m for the year ended 30 September 2025, up from £56.7m in FY24

· Tamdown's order book at year-end was significantly up by 62% to £83.4m (FY24: £51.5m), in spite of the current challenges in the housebuilding sector

· Coleman has integrated seamlessly into the Group, with operations, predominantly within the water and rail sectors, contributing positively to Group margins. The business is well positioned for the start of AMP8 and the anticipated growth in activity is expected to follow throughout FY26

· During FY25, the Group continued to maintain its focus on improving operational performance and managing its cost base, and as a result expects to report a reduced loss before tax

· Strong balance sheet with a cash balance of £10.9m (FY24: £12.8m), which is after a total consideration of £4.1m (including the settlement of inter company loans) paid for the acquisition of Coleman. The Group has also achieved a reduction in trade debtors and retentions."

"Can't see why Croda/Sederma would object to SBTX launching their own product"

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ox123, they would have every right to object. RNS 19/11/24:

"Sales and distribution rights are for the active cosmetic sector alone, leaving SkinBioTherapeutics to focus on further applications of its technology in other sectors."

Words I never expected to say but good post, netcurtains. And hat tip to AquaeSulis01 for his guidance.

Cp2891, a delay of a week or month may not be significant; but as Toyin pointed out, some SBTX delays have been measured in years and this can't simply be whitewashed by investors who weren't on board at the time.

Worse, misjudged or invented forecasts lead to a false market as investors tend to buy shares when they are told that big news is expected next week next month or next year. One occurrence could be dismissed as naiveté or incompetence but multiple occurrences look like orchestrated market abuse - which happens too often on AIM so as to artificially inflate a share price so that a fund raise can be got away.

Ashman's record of broken promises without timely clarifying updates looks increasingly like market abuse and he must be stopped – by shareholders or by the regulator. If you think otherwise then you are part of the problem.

Toyin, I have spoken to MD on a number of occasions. I have no reason not to believe him.

"Now, there are three scenarios. 1, We haven’t received any Croda revenue. 2, We have received Croda revenue (but it isn’t material). 3, We have received Croda revenue, it is material and it is being hidden in some way."

Toyin, correct - but #2 is almost certainly the fact of the matter imho. Opaque as Ashman is, I think it's inconceivable that he would risk censure with #3. So, Croda revenues will come in below £500k imho, and anything close to that would do me for starters.

"Whilst all of the above was unfolding someone was hoovering up 10% of the company without following protocol and only decided to inform the market once they had passed 9%"

MD hasn't followed disclosure rules but he was buying big back in April when the SP was 24p. So he hasn't acquired 10% while the SP has been in the doldrums. I think his motivation for averaging down recently are likely to have been a) a second blue chip contract; b) a US investor ploughing more than $200m into Croda; c) Croda revealing Zenakine presentation with Q3 results; d) Croda Q3 results; e) cheap as chips.

Analysts on Croda:

Fri 17 Oct 2025

(Sharecast News) - Analysts at Berenberg hiked their target price on speciality chemicals company Croda from £31 to £33 on Friday, stating gains in beauty had outweighed plateaus in health.

Berenberg said Croda's multi-year high enterprise value/underlying earnings discount versus its consumer peers left the shares "primed for a relief rally" following its "robust Q3 sales update" on 16 October.

Croda reported third-quarter group organic sales growth of 6.5%, exceeding 4.4% from peer Givaudan, led by marketshare gains in beauty actives, a strong performance in fragrances and flavours, and a recovery in beauty care.

The German bank, which also reiterated its 'buy' stance on the stock, stated that Croda's low starting valuation left the market "more inclined to overlook its imperfections" - namely, the sensitivity regarding one-third of its pharma unit being exposed to RNA/biotech-funding-squeeze news in the US.

"The pharma business did not grow sales in Q3," noted Berenberg. "However, we doubt that consensus group EBIT estimates will change much for 2025/26, primarily because trims to Life Sciences EBIT (including pharma) may be offset by better mix and operating leverage in the Consumer Care division in 2026."

Over at JP Morgan, analysts reiterated their 'overweight' rating on Croda following its strong third-quarter numbers, flagging a number of reasons for its "bullish view".

JPM said: "The earnings downgrade cycle is largely behind us, with consensus estimates likely to remain stable even as much of the sector faces further cuts; improved execution in OSG delivery, operating leverage and self-help cost actions; the market's pessimism on business fundamentals, particularly regarding competitive pressures and portfolio commoditisation, seems excessive to us."

Notwithstanding some possible near-term growth headwinds in the pharma business from the recent US policy changes, JPM said there was "significant mid-to-long-term earnings upside optionality" from the firm's strong pipeline of customer projects across multiple pharma segments.

"Improved earnings delivery close to the sitting consensus should likely drive a step-by-step rerating of the shares," it added.

We didn't see Gyllenhammar's buys either.

Today we are told that former NED, Mike Morris (who stepped down in August 2024) has been selling down from 7.68% to 4.1% which may explain the depressed SP. If he wants out, he has around 400k shares left.

Https://www.superdrug.com/health/medicated-skin/psoriasis-treatment/axisbiotix-ps-psoriasis-support-sachets/p/856127

https://www.superdrug.com/health/medicated-skin/acne-spots-treatment/axisbiotix-ac-acne-support-sachets/p/856126

Shouldn't they be using some trials data to push these products?

That's the short "sensory" video that refused to play at the start of the presentation. The full presentation is here, if the link works:

https://email.sg.on24event.com/ls/click?upn=u001.7kf5QUY4LGF7Fzt7LGE4bbPPsSPtBC4KXSPVJqWhtiEs-2Bhsr1j0brqADm36boTzmq8QbAAW0j4OSXL-2BVxWEoWrJCg4pxQbhrcoP3ASgW8xwb6BcndpI8N7I2T8-2BiX9S5uLNCxleRhRROMR0nE0gXrA-3D-3DaMwG_17nJqtwUQJIZhHC1T5orbWvkZbEjQ-2B33FBPMx-2F-2FbgF82m7SCfF37QGUtUT8eLBwXw7wYjkKYorEfG-2Fv-2FquhOTMqvWWoXnTi15OV9a0RU9ebF8OHHfRhoTzjgBD1Ffk7m8dwgaBoQHiVk4MuoJtezYmrDggKufOYlVBRBJn1iL-2BX51ww5f3fF-2FXb9tPqwu095B-2FZB2yF7TvnkTHKmprQgWR54jOASBvb02YsWhgfqT81x2aHwIX4hRIrroiSsbw6SO-2FV0KpdDmSYjDX8r2YqRezgby-2B9IQoP3K8rnzAnlEUjlrZG8lwgMwdMeTcWwVa22

It's a good thing, Toyin. It widens the target for Zenakine sales while also enabling customers who are ready to dump Matrixyl to do so quietly at this stage without upsetting Croda's applecart. Whatever Croda's public rationale for Zenakine, I would assume that their huge sales force has been instructed to hard sell it as a Matrixyl substitute to customers who may be looking to change course.

Indeed. I have said from the start that Croda can't afford to nail their colours to the Zenakine mast because their bread is buttered by Matrixyl…for now. At the risk of overdosing on metaphors, that would amount to throwing the baby out with the bathwater/killing the goose which is still laying golden eggs. We have to wait for the gradual transition.

In answer to a question about whether Matrixyl customers were switching to Zenakine, Croda said that the two were not mutually exclusive; but I guess they would say that.

I watched it, AquaeSulis01. I didn't notice anything different except perhaps in the biology primer. I had hoped for more trials but the data looked the same. And there were no clues about sales or when Zenakine will be seen on shelves. Some of the audience would have left when the video broke down for 5 minutes at the start and some strong accents made it hard to understand.

I assume Peter Gyllenhammar, now holding over 29% of NEXS shares, is soon to make a bid for the company.

"the big news will be out once he’s filled his boots and that’s the plan"

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the contender, while you do seem to know the man, it is wrong to imply that there is such a plan. He is not an insider; and Ashman doesn't know him and certainly has no idea when he will finish buying.

And someone, probably Dixon, has bought another 250,000 SBTX tranche today. We just need the SP to keep moving up, finally.

Croda over 5% up now.

"Year-on-year sales growth in Beauty Actives improved to 12% at constant currency…"

Good start to the day.