Member Info for ShouldveSold

Same old same old interview. The smugness has gone, but at least the open offer shenanigans has been explained.
I am surprised at the institutional interest, so there is some value somewhere which is seen to be gained by them.

I wasn't aware that the Suriname acreage contained only heavy oil, which even at the "possible 500bpd optimistic suggestion[requiring how many wells?] ", would bring a lower price than WTI. I'm pretty sure the forecast for the pilot well was 50bpd.

All in all, proposing 2-3 Wells in existing producing fields is the most solid operational plan CEG has had since the merger so... *shrugs*. The Suriname operation has been ready to go for nearly 2 years.
Hopefully this rejuvenated balance sheet will be deployed on drilling rather than securing the new board members.

So the hypothesis I am now musing over is whether it's not just incompetent personal & a badly run company that's solely at fault here, but the acreage that CEG owns.
Could it be that CEG has literally run out of recoverable oil in all of its Trinidadian licences and any infill Well would be pointless. Thus the pursuance of Suriname for new acreage?

Oooo an open offer... bargain lol

Nice to see some board changes. I don't know who these people are but will look for previous experience and success.

I'm not impressed to read that Suriname is still the next target but there may also be a Gourdron Well in there with the mentioned "infill".

Hopefully the new Chair will cut away everything that the previous Chair was holding onto out of pride. I was hopeful of a new CEO as well but. Maybe that will happen in due course.

Can't say I recall reading a financial statement where "Millions in fees" have been paid to Gniess by Scirocco. Has Scirocco ever had to pay Milllions in fees to any company? Hundreds of thousands, yes, but Millions?

That being said, indeed Millions will most likely have to paid on a full or parital Ruvuma sale.

Indeed it does appear that for Scir to see the CH1 project through to completion, it would need to raise close to its current market cap. So .3p could become a reality through various sources of funding and capital raises, sales, etc.
TR doesn't appear to have any intention of bolstering the share price before the drill with news of AD income. Proabably because the current outgoings are greater than income.
But who knows, he and Dougie could be working their butt's of for their other directorships which may bleed through to Scirocco.
Personally I don't think after decade in Tanz, that Scirocco could or would relinquish the asset and walk away. But if you feel it's necessary to state this at every opportunity, by all means continue.

I get that you hold a "worst case scenario" view of this stock and every bit of news appears very bad. But cheer up buddy :) don't invest more than you can afford to lose.

It's actually the consistency and tenacity I find amusing lol
The market pricing in the share placing is naturally adjusting the share price.

As I have previously posted ( Don't expect everyone to have total recall) I expect a couple of rounds of funding for the advancement of CH1 and for the share price to fall accordingly.
.5 is a possibility that I have adjusted my expectations to. Fretting about it every time the sp drops is not something I stress about given the current position the company is in relative to where it may be in the next quarter.

Lol

I think the two companies are in to very different stages. Angus has spent the past 3 years completing all the infrastructure necessary to supply gas/geothermal. Ripe for a takeover as they can generate income shortly. Whereas Scirocco/Ruvuma is still years away from being able to generate cash. The infrastructure isn't in place to supply. Even if a monster commerical discovery of both oil & gas at CH1, it cannot currently be piped anywhere. (Maybe tankered away at a cost ARA would be OK with)

Scirocco may indeed have a 4p value in 4 years time. Even if it sold out of Ruvuma tomorrow, I don't think the shareprice could get that high.

I guesstimate that a £20M sale price would probably see Scirocco walk away with approx £12M after taxes & Gniess commissions.
After pay raises for the BOD and share options, how much of that £12M would be left to re-expand the business again. Scirocco would be back to a tiny asset value and a reflective shareprice.

In the companies entire history, I don't recall it ever providing the market with a quarterly update. So I don't expect one in April.

T.R's strategy seems to be "withhold financial information from shareholders & the market till year end. Maybe creating shareholder value will come by overnight success rather than a slow but sure build up. *shrugs*

My guy feeling is saying that the way the AD deal is structured, until the consultants are off the books "another 12 months minimum", Scirocco is cash flow negative.

Well hopefully S Potter is one of the Directors who will be leaving. I wonder whether CEG will keep him on the books for 12 months as a consultant lol

Yes I did watch this Q&A along with the 33 or so other LTH's lol. This issue I have with this info is why hasn't it been released in a RNS. This way the market can extraploate and forecast.
The question that still remains for me is "was Scirocco's Octobers diversification expenditure higher than that £20,000 /£40,000 a month "? Where is the break even price? No one has that information. And I think that until the market is given that information, the sp will continue to suffer.

I agree Steve.
With the climate, I doubt houses in Tanz requires central heating. I'm assuming most domestic houses have wood burning stoves/cookers. Also assuming there would be a higher demand for chilled water rather than heated. So the domestic market seems limited to LNG for vehicles to me. (All hypothesis)
Until the plant at the port is constructed for major export, who is gonna buy that gas? Maybe thats why the KN1 payments were 6 months behind. Slow sales....?

Personally I don't see Ruvuma as a sought after must have asset right now as none of the sites are producing any gas. I think it could be if the Tanz gov make all the correct moves and gas prices continue to soar. Wouldn't wanna be of Ruvuma in 5 years time. But as for today and next week... meh

In the meantime, Scirocco now have a AD business but they are not gonna tell us whether it's making the company any money or not -___-
Because uncertainty creates shareholder value?With a potential round of funding approaching, I would of thought getting the share price as high as possible before a dilution would make sense rather than letting it fall to 5 year lows.

I said I would judge the BOD on what they do outside of Tanz and right now...they aren't scoring very highly.

As have many super majors, majors and mid caps. All with off shore blocks twiddling their thumbs on what could be if the Gov allowed it.
For the companies who can fart that kind of money, they can sit and wait it out.

I read Elon's new venture was making rocket fuel from C0². By the time Ruvuma is ready to distribute gas, the leading countries of the world might be funding other forms of energy.

As for the seismic, who knows. Climate change may mean it can all be done before any rain falls. On the other hand thay may get 2 years rainfall and the site might be under water for 12months lol.

I disagree. Tanzanian gas isn't going anywhere for a long time in my opinion. A Ruvuma sale could be years away. By that time, who knows what the price of Gas will be. Who knows if the Tanz Gov will even agree to the gas infrastructure to commence before 2023?
I'm sure we have all made investments pre-drill in hopes of a discovery to only be met with non commericality. CH1 may indeed double the asset value. It could also need another Well or side track to find the commercial spot. I'm sure the Zubairs know what they are doing !!!

Yea secret squirrel AD numbers. TR & I have different ideas on how to create shareholder value, that's for sure.

It's funny, I think im the only one here who doesnt think a sale is imminent lol.
I'm of the opinion that a cash call will arrive for the 2nd phase of the CH1 operation, before news of a full or partial sale of Ruvuma will.
With no market update on cash generation from the AD business till year end figures in June. And no other news to bolster the share price. I only see the share price falling and I will go as far to say as I fear it will halve when news of funding is announced.

Reel who in? Lol we are already in the caught basket awaiting filleting...

Apologies for being a Debbie Downer, but I don't see how a sale possible for the simple fact that Tanz is a political mess.
Tanz has gone from being 10 years in front of the LNG market to now 10 years behind.
They are playing catch up with gas prices soaring and have missed the boat.
There may indeed be a scramble for Tanz assets when the plant and pipelines are operational. And if Scir is still holding those assets by then, ROI will then be a beautiful thing for all of us.
Until then I think its just rob shareholders to pay Gniess.
More likely a Farm down and a free carry so Scir can retain a 5-10% holding but cash calls will be met but the Farm down partner. Now that I can see happening.

The years of waiting is the direct result of the $30b infrastructure video. That's why nothing has happened in Tanz for all these years.
First build the infrastructure then develop the fields so they are ready to supply. No point developing the fields if they can't supply.

Solo invested in these assets believing that infrastructure work would have been completed by now lol. So now any other company can look at what Solo/Scir/Aminex has had to go through for the past 6 years and factor that into any purchase.

Jono we haven't seem the financial plan. Apparently costs have been slashed by some $500,000 a month. We'll have to wait for year end figures to see if the ceo is on $.1.5m a year or whether he is drawing a modest salary with options. I counted 5 board members and 7 senior management. Its too many unnecessary positions in my opinion. Let's wait to see who is resiging and who is joining to run the company and what the new salaries will be.

I'm going to disagree here and say that it actually sounds like reality has set in for this current Board of Directors. That path they set the Company on some 12years ago has led them to the brink of collapse. To repeat that old process again would be insanity.

So after the next fund raising to completely clear debts, and would expect enough equity to drill one well plus a contingency margin. Be that in Suriname or Trindad.

I don't think this is about being mislead again Jono. CEG are no longer pursuing wild cat off shore Wells. So if they stick to the assets where the oil is proven to flow, the company has a chance to continue to operate. Whether that will be at an operational loss or not, we shall see.
Unfortunately most of us have no choice but to sit tight and hope. It's not about plowing more money in :S more of hoping for loss reduction.