Member Info for ShouldveSold

Been out of the loop an AEX since the KN1 shut down. From memory Ntorya was classed as commercial around 2014. Has the Tanz gov done any work to connect Ntorya to the Mnazi pipeline?
Or will the CH1 discovery also lay dormant?

The Tanz gov underlining why it's not good to do business there.
They have had 10 years do build the infrastructure. They have had & continue to have companies willing to do the work. And now, still sitting on the proverbial fence they are pointing fingers lol.
Even with the might of the Zubair Corp, very little has been achieved. Its doesn't scream " invest in Tanzania" at all.

I was expecting the actual numbers to evidence your opinion.
What do the EAG director salaries look like?

To be fair, I am also questioning why the deals &/or acquisitions are taking so long. Even if its only a couple of Directors for Scirocco & EAG doing what they can with however many hours a day/week they spend working for Scirocco. 6months have passed with no news regarding this.
I am curious about the expensive management structure mentioned. What exact figures are we talking here? Having browsed the 2020 full year renumeration section and just want clarification on this.

Additionally, what exactly are EAG's costs and topco costs individually?

My immediate concern is the current share price. With energy prices soaring high, that should be having a positive effect on the share price, but its not. There is a disconnect somewhere.
Either the market doesn't believe that Scirocco's cash generation is directly affected by the price of energy or it believes that the income is so small that the premium doesn't make any difference to the company's financial situation.

Regardless of the slow progress in Tanzania, whether a sale, partial or full is coming. The AD diversification has become Scirocco's bread & butter. And as far as the company rhetoric goes, it's performing better than expected. So Tom, where is the shareholder reassurance? Where are the company Tweets to inform us that company is doing well? Where are the Investor webinars?

With Gniess & EAG handling acquisitions & due diligence, I presumed any deals would be announced/completed faster than if Scirocco was trying to do a deal by itself. It looks like Scirocco is sitting on it's laurels.

I am questioning if that cash coming in from the AD business is going straight back out and Scirocco is not actually building a war chest to fund further organic growth. Instead that income does not cover the financial commitments of the acquisition.
Tom if you are reading this, some clarity would be great.

With the current events and rhetoric, UKOG might actually be worth something if the Fracking legislation is amended to allow revisiting the Kimmeridge zones

Feels like .4 can be hit any day now. I'm going to revise my expectation to .25 with a CH1 funding placing.

I can't spend any time lamenting over what could have been. Had the Tanzanians been committed, had the OneDyas deal been completed, had Horsehill produced.... Scirocco may indeed be a midcap company today.
But it's not and one can assign blame to wherever one feels its appropriate.

Scirocco isn't bankrupt just yet. It still has asset value which has the potential to be realised.

I understand your gripe and the need to express one's displeasure of how Scirocco is/has been run.
I feel it's necessary to remind you that Scir is a microcap company and not a Oil & Gas major.
Investing in mircocap stocks comes with the risks and expectations can also be way over estimated & never realised.

Well Scirocco doesn't own Gniess. The directors saw an opportunity to create a company that provides services in a sector they know very well. Hats off to them.

I'm going round in circles here with you. Scirocco is a two man company. It has to outsource most of its work because it doesn't have the manpower or expertise to execute operations by itself.
I do think it'd unpalatable that the two people who run Scir have directorships in the companies work is being outsourced to. But such is the nature of business world.

Unless Scir is going to curate a BOD with salaries in the millions to be able to conducts business in house, what is the solution?

Well there is no Ruvuma sale or funding without Gniess. And there is no AD growth without EAG. So if that means they have to focus on those commitments to drag Scirocco up, then so be it.

I am presuming the COO is working hard at his day job; his more important directorship over at Gniess. Likewise with the CEO over at EAG.
Hopefully whatever they are focusing on for their respective companies will eventually add some value to Scirocco. I think they have both recognised that Scirocco is stuck in the mud & can't dig its self out so it needs the assistance of other companies.
Nice to have ones bread buttered on both sides :P

I suspect its only a matter of time before they both resign from Scirocco to focus on those other, more rewarding commitments.

This RNS reads differently to the previous ones. I an guessing it was written by the new Chair.
The resolution paragraph is pretty clear: vote to pass all resolutions or the company will most likely cease to exist.

The Suriname Well should commence drilling in the second quarter, followed by a Well in the South Erin license.
Targeting 20-40bpd isn't great. I am hoping this is an extremely conservative estimate.
I think looking further than Suriname results is futile. If that Well doesn't hit a commercial deposit, that may affect the South Erin drilling plan.

I don't concern myself with how other choose to invest nor do I feel a need to warn or protect anyone choosing to invest in whatever company they are considering.
The stock market is risk & reward. Investing isn't a "get your money back" agreement.
DYOR

Yea I don't think you have read or understood my post.
I disagree with you that it's not a scalable business. The numbers in the Q4 RNS are up to date. I guess we are all free to interpret them and add on or subtract whatever one feels is accurate.

Each deal will have its own merit and valuation so who knows what the next acquisition will be. I'm can't presume a cost of an acquisition when I dont know what that acquisition or deal will be.

I think you are a little transfixed on forecasted numbers and timescales. Companies hit and miss projections all the time and the share prices react accordingly. If Scirocco isn't valued at £150m in 2 years time, I won't lose any sleep over it nor will I be emailing the board complaining of broken projection statements lol.
One if forever basing ones arguments on the worst case scenario. Cheer up mrc, it might never happen :)

Spending £1.1M ( approx £2M after the EAG loan & commissions) to own 50% of a business that is forecasted to generate £600,000 in 12 months is not a bad deal in my opinon.
If each bolt on AD plant costs approx £1M and returns £600,000 per annum. That's a pretty awesome scalable model.
Maybe not so much if Scirocco has to split their net with Gniess. But until the financial details are revealed to the market, one can only speculate.
The share price moving sideways until June is nothing new to LTH.

Also recall a recent RNS stating Gniess services will be retained for a minimum of 12months (possible 15 months) even if no further deals or acquisitions are achieved. But retaining their services is arguably my likely to ensure deals are completed.

That's a question only TR can answer.
But knowing Scirocco is run by 2 people, expecting them to pull off 5 deals in 12 months is a lot.
I'm sure Gniess are on the case and the deals will happen when they happen. Even if that it takes longer than 12 months. There is no expiry time to grow a sustainable operation.
Today it's good news and that's where my focus is. Its a glass half full, not half empty.

Well I must say that RNS update is a pleasant surprise. A quarterly update just like TR said he would issue :)
And the numbers from the Greenan business look better than was forecasted. No update on Opex or outgoings but it's good cash generative news.
A heads up on 2 potential AD deal is also good to hear.

The Tanzanian political landscape has changed. It seems more and more like the Tanz Gov want to play catch up. As far as I know the CH1 Well is the next on shore Well to be drilled. So the seismic results could indeed lead to a deal being inked.

All in all, Scirocco finally seems to have turned a corner and things are looking positive.

That is the most logical presumption and maybe the only option for CEG to continue to tread water.
It is what it is.