Member Info for ShouldveSold

Right and so because we as LTH have lost all our money, we must sabotage anyone or any better run company that profits from Scir? Lol
Golden Rule of investing: never invest more than you can afford to lose. Scirocco has taught me that lesson

Gas prices at record highs; Scirocco owns 2 gas assets and the share price is at 12 lows. The only way that makes sense is that no financial benefit is being realised.
And I don't believe it is. Full year figures will show. I'm expecting net losses and the income from the AD to match the outgoing to Gniess.

Unfortunately Scirocco has just never bought an asset that makes money, only the potential to. Bonkers business model and I was even more bonkers to invest. But hey I was a whipper snapper investor lol you live and you learn eh.

Separately, its my understanding that Kiliwani has been declared dead & unsalvageable.
All this talk about voting no to the deal is funny to me. Realistically what would be the plan; group together and raise £30M to fund Ruvuma ourselves? Lol

I'm waiting for full year figures but I am expecting the Gniess details to look something like:
All income from the AD plant will go to Gniess for the first 15months.

It's clear to me that the only people that will make money or get a return on their investments in Scirocco, are the people in the boardrooms.

No matter how bitter this news is, that proactive interview sums things up pragmatically.
I am actually glad to see the end of a 10 year nightmare seed investment. Yes Wentworth will gain all the proceeds from it, but that's just how Ritson's cookie has crumbled. I'm not gonna waste anytime fretting about it.

Moving on to the AD business, it now sounds to me like T.R's plan is to grow EAG's revenue, not Scirocco's. And he is picking up the Ritson baton by trying to invest in businesses that don't actually make money but will do in the future lol
Omg. I can see all this money trickling in from this sale conditions will evaporate to net losses.

Mixed emotions about today's RNS;

On one hand I am glad the Tanzania nightmare is finally over. On the other, my losses on Scir have now been cemented for eternity.

I think other than hoping for a ARA/APT free ride, Wentworth was the only interested party. The deal make sense for them and I am guessing Scir had no choice but to take it. Full year figures should be released this week and I can expecting to see that Scir was on the brink of collapse and that this Ruvuma sale was the only life line.
So a £10M sale, which may come in 2025 when gas is being sold. If Gniess get a £2M cut and the directors take theirs. SCIR may walk away with £6M which underpins the marketcap. And means the shareprice should remain relatively unchanged. Nice to have the liabilities off the books though and once all the transactions monies have been paid in total (2024-2025) Scirocco should be debt free. Which is great for the company but crap for shareholders. Its basically zeroing the balance sheet.

I don't think this history will count for Scirocco as it increasing looks as though it will levered out of Tanzania way before its anywhere near ready to sell gas in my opinion.

I note from todays RNS that CEG have in fact not learned anything from dabbling in wildcat off-shore drilling.
Why this license wasn't or is not not surrendered immediately is startling.

Reading the ALBA RNS today regarding the section of the disposal of Brockham; my first thought was "this sounds like what mrc is always talking about with SCIR".
The longer this stalemate and radio silence goes on, the more I'm beginning to think that it could be a likely outcome through default.

I am now thinking SCIR may have to take a similar deal and might get parachute payments at specific milestones but be out of Tanz before any production with just enough money to cover directors wages & Gniess payments till the end of the agreed retention period.

Personally I think CrustyPete over on thr AEX board has summed it up perfectly.
An underwhelming yawn fest of an RNS. Same old dangling carrot for long term holders.
Still keeping the out going costs a secret from the market. I'm sticking with my opinion of All profit retained from the AD business will go straight to Gniess. I fear a placing just to be able to pay the board's wages is coming, let alone one for CH-1 operations.

I wonder of there is a bonus payment to Gniess if the Ruvuma assert relinquished.
I would not be surprised if we get a CEO step down by June.

I do remember that. But I am unconvinced that Scirocco are building a warchest and I am frustrated in thinking that I will have to wait until mid June to find out if the AD business was a great purchase or if the structured deal means all of that income goes back out in costs.

I would say the market doesn't appear to believe Scirocco is generating and retaining cash.

If this was the case, I would think it would be market sensitive news. Imagine having a business which is generating *loads* of cash which is self funding orgnaic growth and you are not passing that information onto your shareholders.
No news or delayed news usually means bad news. I'm preparing for a £600k Gniess fee and a year end pre-tax loss.

Hey HM, yes I recall the rhetoric. However being as no evidential progress has been announced on the diversified business & funding is needed for Tanz, one is left to speculate.

My concern is "why is Scir stockpiling cash (if any) on the AD side of the business, when it has a funding shortfall in Tanz.
Communicating with shareholders isn't something Scirocco does very well.

If income is being generated from the AD business is curreny being redeployed to grow it, then I would like TR to tell us.
I'm getting the impression that whatever AD income is being generated, it's going out the back door. Scirocco should be reassuring shareholders on how great the business is doing. Instead it's radio silence. Why would TR withhold great news from shareholders? The possible answers to that question doesn't fill me with confidence.

Should be due a quarterly update any day now.
It would be nice if TR clarified if the income being generated from the AD business will actually supplement some of the cash calls due for the CH1 project or whether all that income is going straight to Gniess.
I'm guessing he will make us all wait to June for the news though.

I don't really know if Scirocco is an energy company, a management company, an investment company or a registered entity to funnel business through for whatever reasons.

On a 1-100 scale of company confidence, I'd say I'd currently score it a 5 out 100.

.25 is the oldest historic resistance level. I don't see anything for stopping it falling to that level again. The company outlook and focus isn't currently fixed on value creation in my opinion. I don't actually know what the focus is to be honest.

Ah good info, cheers. :)

Yea I agree with the points you have made. Hard to believe that Ruvuma is in the same position as it was when Solo Oil frst decided to invest in Tanz in terms of being able to deliver gas.
Local Processing plants and/or pipelines should have been constructed, tested and ready to fire up. Ntorya 1&2 could have be producing & meeting that demand shortfall. It does seem like they are having the conversations now as opposed to continually kicking the can down the road.
With no pipeline in place, there isn't really any rush to drill CH1 at all, so I am also wondering whether any well will be drilled this year. Which will provide Scirocco a stay of execution.

Afternoon CP, I appreciate the clarity on the Kiliwani licences. Based on the position the Tanz Gov are now taking, it sounds to me like if KN doesn't go back into production within 18 Months, the licence may be withdrawn & issued to a company/s who do have the resources and motivation to invest.

On the 25 year GSA point, would you sign an agreement with a Gov who haven't even built a pipeline for you to export/pipe the gas you have discovered? I mean it would be nice to have a sales contract in place but we have seen how the gov can delay making due payments.
It would be a tiny issue if a pipeline could be constructed & operational in 6 weeks or if a fleet of tanker lorries are ready to be deployed. But I get the impression that even if CH1 increases the asset value by 33%, it will lay inaccessible just like Ntorya1/2 has for years to come.

My thoughts are now "What's to stop the Zubair Corp from getting frustrated like they did previously & deciding Tanz is not worth the hassle".
If the Tanz Gov aren't building the infrastructure to ensure gas production as quick as possible then it's all optics.
Maybe the operational plan is to tanker the gas to the Kiliwani? It's a shame the Zubairs remain silent on this. We have no idea of scheduling.

Well KN1 is still there. It may not have much gas left but KN south could be tapped. I don't know if the APT stake in AEX includes the KN licences. If the Tanz gov were serious about those comments, they could fast track remedial work if its economical to do so or push for an exploration drill in KN South.
If they havent even begun pipeline works to connect Ruvuma to the existing network then the only gas being pumped here is Methane lol
Any talk of a Sale is laughable. None of these assets are turnkey.
It wouldn't matter so much if Scirocco was cashing in on the other side of the business but it's even unclear as to what is really happening with this AD diversification.
Almost 6 months have passed since the deal to generate revenue was completed and I still don't have any idea how much Scirocco has coming in or going out each month.

Is Scirocco burning cash?
Is it building a warchest?
Has cash revenue brought Scir to breakeven?
Is it cash flow positive?
Is Scir losing £10k a month?

This financial uncertainty has continued for too long. In my opinion Scirocco as uninvestable at the moment. It doesn't even feel like the Board members are investing any of their time in Scirocco either.