Member Info for Shorn

@Ella10,
I have been through this process 3 times (non-mining) in the last 19 years.
Radio silence is paramount as there is so much data / DD & commercial confidentiality at work.
Whilst i agree with the impact of the silence on the PI's there is no mileage to be gained from NvS and the BOD to keep back information around a deal that might be over. I am (from my own experience) encouraged by the silence. I have signed 2 EA extensions in the past both were supported by a strong belief that a deal was going to get over the line - never would we of signed an EA for the hell of it. Furthermore, just like NvS we played commercial ping pong after the EA extension to a fruitful conclusion.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Akhtar234
"...I dont believe a deal is going to be done by the EA end.
Now we open up to wider participants and let the majors battle one another, AA have had a chance and have blown it,"

I disagree - no evidence of this, any formal conclusion would be covered off in an RNS.
We are still exactly where we were at the last IC, with NvS engaging in commercial ping pong with AAL.
For me this is even more likely a deal with the current radio silence. i expect an RNS announcing the deal at any moment during the next c3 weeks.
I got to say my heart skipped a beat when i saw an RNS was out the other day... lol.
In terms of a "potential" further EA extension - for me doubtful but if this did occur this would play nicely into ARCM's hands as it can only mean further work to get the deal over the line, in which case ARCM would negotiate favourable conditions / commitments / deal time line, etc - attached to any extension.
Patience folks... and sit on those hands (unless topping up of course)...
IMO ATB Shorn

@short6, @db_dogsbody,
What's that all about ?? (forgive the ignorance if it's obvious)
ATB Shorn

@smose
"...I believe that the drop in commodity price has been overdone..."
Only a short term drop - be patient, all will come good...
https://www.mining.com/copper-price-keeps-soaring-despite-chinas-attempt-to-cool-rally/
IMO ATB Shorn

@gkb47, @nimrod22,
So this is an extract from the article from SMM news - auction of Copper in China for Chinese companies...

"SHANGHAI, Jun 22 (SMM) - China’s National Food and Strategic Reserves Administration announced to release the first batch of national metal reserves, with the total amount of copper at 20,000 mt.
Domestic copper consumption is 1.15 million mt per month, and the released 20,000 mt of reserves account for about 2%. Only the companies related to copper processing and manufacturing are qualified to be the bidders, and each bidding section is 100 mt of copper. The copper reserves come from the warehouses in Shanghai, Zhejiang, Anhui, Henan, Shandong, Tianjin, Ningxia, and other regions, which is in accordance with the national policy of ensuring supply and stabilising prices of commodities. The later release amount and frequency will worth attention."
My comment - is...
A) Firstly don't believe all you read coming out of China (i worked in ASIA - Hong Kong / China, news can be propaganda and self fulfilling...) A real measure of truth would be for those in the know to monitor western market price purchases of copper by Chinese companies in the next 6 months - there shouldn't be any if China is releasing surpluses at lower prices...
2% of (total?) reserves = 20,000 mt / year - and with consumption at 1.15 mt / month they are good for Copper and todays consumption / rates for the next c100 years - see what i mean BS being mis-reported...
B) Bidding will drive their own prices up - so much for price stability, LOL
C) This Copper is for their own consumption - the "West" needs to concentrate on finding additional separate reserves (mined or recovered tailings) - Australia, Africa, etc for the future. Biden has said as much as he doesn't want to expand "dirty mines" in the the US.
D) Given the big world wide push for EV's, turbines, and all things green and electric, etc, etc... markets need to wake up and realise short term localised Chinese auctions are not a solution to world wide supply & demand, it's only the Chinese thinking they are controlling pricing for the short term.

Markets will react as the realisation further kicks in that we ALL don't have enough copper... the hand brake will come off and normal "superstorm" service will be resumed - believe me there is no other version on the horizon.
IMO ATB Shorn

@nimrod22
Thanks will do.
ATB Shorn

@dorfan01
Do you read anywhere what the Chinese auction tonnage of Copper represents in terms of current supply restrictions & future demand ?
As you say it's temporary and kicking the can down the road - but it would be nice to get some relative figures...
ATB Shorn

Colin Bird, Executive Chairman said: "These assays complete our Phase 1 drilling report. We are pleased that every hole completed intersected long runs of copper mineralisation, showing the porphyry system to be of significant size. The comprehensive programme of geophysics has also suggested that the system is far larger than we originally thought.
ATB Shorn

@Shiner75, @dorfan01,
Good emails guys.
It makes total sense for JLP to have a centralised processing plant for the locations with enough resource for tailing recovery, and for CMRS to mine, a perfect "joint" arrangement adding nicely to the future cash flow & margins at Jubes.
IOM ATB Shorn

@nthoftheriver
You will not be wasting your money.
Lot's of good things here and your timing with H2 results forthcoming couldn't be better.
I was a newbie last year and now up to 3m shares. Fully intending to hold for the next 2-3 years at least and then review things.
Check the RNS's out and also the recorded interviews on the web site - good insight into Leon, progress and future plans, all underpinned by a perfect economic storm...
IMO ATB Shorn

@aprogerson
I think if i see an RNS on the LSE platform - my first thought would be is it the AAL <-> ARCM deal...
Any day now...
ATB Shorn

@aprogerson
Does that suggest we are due an ARCM - RNS ?
And given all thresholds are achieved what does it mean free cashflow wise "£"over the term (per year?)
ATB Shorn

@fulmar29
Being a relative newbie i am not sure to what extent this increasing additional revenue (free cash flow) will impact the SP. What we do know is that this will increase the ability of ARCM to fund additional longer term drilling / exploration outside of any JV with AAL...
Simply put the floating SP around 5.4 -7p seems to be in anticipation of the deal with AAL - BUT all the while ARCM are becoming increasingly self funding for years to come for other projects / exploration too...
IMO ATB Shorn

@jonah58, @Thronegames,
If AAL were not going to proceed (fundamental differences) they wouldn't need to wait for the end of the EA to say the deal is off.
Equally if AAL wait until the wire they as you say run the risk at the end of EA +1 day - opening it up to the other two companies (1 Chinese) that have shown interest, plus others in the open market - AAL wouldn't do this.
So on balance with the time and money invested so far, and Rothchild's involvement - there is going to be a positive RNS any time from tomorrow until mid July (c3 weeks).
Furthermore, ARCM don't need to agree a further extension as they had at the last IC following full DD, started commercial ping pong with AL (with ARCM pushing back on some points according to NvS) - instead it's more likely that they would jointly agree a deal now that may have a sliding scale on value based on further drill results, and other variables that can't be pinned down before the end of the current EA.
Trust me i have been in this position before (non-mining) and there are many late nights and the lawyers are currently earning their fees. Be patient folks top up & sit on your hands and enjoy the forthcoming ride.
IMO ATB Shorn

i know and my point was that the scrap can't feature in the current supply because of the supply chain disruption, thereby adding to the perfect storm...

@Kullybahia
And you forgot the supply chain (Covid) disruption to the scrap / recovered Copper market too...

@shuvlin
By releasing stockpiles to reduce the heat off demand only kicks the can down the road.
Lack of sustainable supply Vs growing demand is going to push prices up - its inevitable...
China cannot afford to be out of the race. For a change the west is joining the east in a massive investment drive (EV's etc) so watch this space or more importantly Jubes share price especially after the H2 financials are released in c3-4 weeks.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Mikiesunday
"...With basket price taking a few jabs on the chin yesterday..."
Short term dip in advance of a long term supply shortage Vs growing demand problem.
Demand will increase as will Jubes SP - too much organic expansion and growth to hold it back - starting with H2 results being released in c3-4 weeks...
IMO ATB Shorn

@Joeman1
Agreed - a classic case of kicking the tin down the road for another day.
Meanwhile governments and majors know the writing is on the wall and they need a long term sustainable supply solution.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Sq52
I looked back at somebody else's update on what to expect updates on - i guess it puts more flesh on the bone on your "African update"...
Though i don't have enough back ground knowledge to make a judgement on it's accuracy or current relevance, and stand to be corrected, but though it relevant to at least re-post it...
Commencement of stoping at GF
First income from ancillary alluvials
Update on position at FB
Delineation plan for Kalengwa
Update on follow up Phase 2 diamond drilling programme of approximately 1,600m planned to test the Eureka copper-gold deposit strike extent and to further define the internal grade and continuity of the mineralisation - drilling started early February.
Award of contract for open-pit mining at Eureka.
IMO ATB Shorn