Member Info for Shorn

@theiceberg
Excellent post and blog on the data we now have.
You said...
"...Phase 2 drilling will add much more. All of the mineralisation will be free, as the material will need to be extracted regardless as it lies within the open pit design, it will directly increase the NPV and bring the copper breakeven price down. It is therefore a reasonable conclusion that the added material, higher grade mineralisation and further refining of the design and capex requirements will bring the copper price break even down to around $3.6 lb, with an NPV of 1.3bn with copper prices at between $4.6 and $5.
This alone would be a fantastic achievement, creating a profitable and desirable mine, however, the expectation is that considerably more mineralisation exists outside the open pit design..."
My layman's take is that these potential sets of criteria you mention are the single biggest evolving impact on share price - the market starts to realise that from a bold base line model statement - so much data over the next 6-9 months will further confirm: initial economic viability, LOM, overall profitability, BUT with ongoing increasing scale being proven-up.
I suppose my question is what is the trigger for the SP to accelerate / re-rate ? (remembering this is a speculative investment not a mining investment)...
--> a revised jorc ?
--> Cu price to surge ?
--> large additional location discovery ?
Clearly the objective here is to prove a mining potential, the AAL clause is something that might come off or not.(interestingly in the ZM presentation the AAL potential quite rightly at this stage was not even mentioned).
IMO ATB Shorn

@thevid
what's the timing of this statement ?
ATB Shorn

@Trickytree77
Throw in Xtract and i am the same as you and agree with your view.
ATB Shorn

Looking back at the recent RNS’s I can see that Castillo are active in both Australia & Zambia...
Australia -> A comprehensive drilling campaign started mid-June at Mt Oxide Project, starting at Big One Deposit (26 drill-holes for 2,828m), with the focus on intersecting new targets off the 1,200m strike event to extend known copper mineralisation.
Lead by David Drakeley of geology consultancy, FieldCrew, have been appointed to manage the integrated exploration programme across the Mt Oxide Project.
Zambia -> Additionally, Castillo are carrying out Comprehensive IP survey across the key Luanshya and Mkushi Projects located in Zambia's copper-belt this started c2 weeks ago.
Given the scale of the campaign, Castillo estimate it will take 6-8 weeks to complete and fully analyse the results - reconciling these findings with known anomalous areas at surface should identify priority targets to drill.

Comment - Given the news this morning I would suggest that as Mt Oxide is more progressed the “...material exploration results ("Announcement")...” probably relates to that location and the Big One Deposit.
The following link gives a bit more insight into this deposit...
Castillo Copper Ltd acts on strong Big One results and buoyant copper markets with intent to recommence mining operations (proactiveinvestors.co.uk)
Highlights include...
• A known high-grade shallow copper system that was previously mined in 1997 – producing 4,400 tonnes supergene ore, averaging 3.5% copper – via several open pits;
• Recent and historical drilling campaigns that have produced exceptional high-grade intercepts;
• Excellent location in the world-class Mt Isa copper-belt, a well-established mining region with solid infrastructure and ready access to a skilled labour pool; and
• Several third-party processors are already in the region with excess milling capacity that Castillo’s management team are now actively canvassing.
I can't think what else the release relates to.
IMO ATB Shorn

@womo
Plus back in the day the technology analysing the material was no where as sophisticated as today, and given these two facts the reason Jubilee are looking for establishing an order of magnitude / scale to invest into JV(s).
Personally i am invested in both stocks and feel very positive about the future here.
IMO ATB Shorn

tom111
This isn't over if anything it's now when it starts to get really interesting...
Just had a look at your informative insightful historic posts - not.
In you go filtered together with Ella. Oh and i found i had already filtered CO123 - funny they come round in clusters.
ATB to those genuine investors.

Ella - read the english it's "issues that are untrue" not you.
My point is this you have either invested and are now doing your research?, or you haven't invested yet and are using history from various sources that undermine the current position, for your own or a collective benefit.
I appreciate your experience, and my past 19 years has been building up businesses to sell to PE.
Contentious legal issues, regulatory thresholds or requirements are all addressed in the DD process particularly through disclosures and warranties - IF they could have an impact on the deal or AAL later.
So essentially, what i am saying is between AAL & ARCM's lawyers what you are dragging up will of been already addressed in any SPA or JV agreement.
I will invite you again to give your thoughts on which other majors have the incentive to make the approaches they have made to ARCM, who fit well in this jurisdiction ?
Do you have anything else positive to say ?

Ella
How's that work for you - invest then do your research after, sounds like investing in reverse...
Here's a challenge - any "positive thoughts" on who the other interested parties might be: Chinese et al, actually i would be interested in any positive thoughts you might have...
Probably too busy getting your list together for the regulator. lol.

Let's just try and establish what's going on here...
AAL have DD'd the hell out of this potential purchase, had they found serious issues in the first half of the 12 months DD then AAL would of walked earlier. FACT.
IF there are remaining contentious legal issues ARCM would have disclosed them last year and AAL would of made ARCM sign financial warranties to cover commercial disclosures off. FACT.
AAL would not go to the EA "wire" with ARCM if there wasn't a potential commercial outcome.
WHY is Ella10 banging on about issues that are history or untrue now when they will of been covered off in the DD process - WHY, i suspect other posters here more wiser than me are describing Ella10's motives correctly.
Ella10 also posts on the Xtract share board, and on balance the posting has a similar methodology...
Focusing on the RNS announcement gaps, the lack of data, credibility reasons to doubt, but everything i read is weighted only one way - always...
I agree as posted by others we should keep a balance on this board... but i sense something more contriving here.
Didn't think i would be posting this kind of thing but sometimes it needs to be said...
As always IMO ATB Shorn

Assessing the RNS content you could take the following views...
“Discussions with Anglo American have been positive and continue....the Company has been approached by a number of interested groups to commence discussions regarding a potential commercial transaction...” --> with the end of the EA NvS has transferred and magnified the pressure on AAL to get real and conclude a deal before ARCM sign an EA with another interested party, or more likely ARCM open up their data room for initial DD to specific interested parties for a fixed period leading to an initial bidding process.
“Nick von Schirnding stated: "As we have always said, any transaction has to sufficiently compensate Arc shareholders for allowing a major to take over an asset which we believe has significant potential to become a major tier-one copper discovery...” --> resulting negotiations /offers from AAL fall short of what BOD & Rothchild’s believe is the appropriate price, not renewing the EA again puts pressure on AAL to either increase their offer or walk. Expect much more immediate news flow next week unless AAL adjust their position / offer over this weekend (Morrison’s is an example in commercial terms).
“We will continue our discussions with Anglo American which have been going well but will also commence discussions with other major mining companies that have approached us. In the meantime, we continue with our very exciting drill programme and development of the Cheyeza East plant, against the backdrop of a very strong copper market..." --> I read the negotiations with AAL are not over, (next Monday is no different to last Thursday in negotiation terms except AAL are now at real risk of losing this deal), so we are taking our gloves off, and we still have optionality within our current business model.
The market totally gets there is a deal available with ARCM, the more the drill results prove up the asset, the more the positive effect on the current and future SP. For me it’s a hold or buy whilst we have this initial dip, as it may well be that speculation that this RNS creates - will drive the SP higher than it has been recently...
IMO ATB Shorn

2750 t for me
ATB Shorn

@aprogerson,
"...UNLESS the outline deal on the table already takes account of this and/or is acceptable to both parties regardless of additional results..."
Totally agree the SPA or more likely JV agreement will take account of variables like drill results etc.
Not long to go now. :-)
IMO ATB Shorn

Don't trust your intentions - in the green box - filtered

@Mikiesunday
So we seem with all previous and recent data to be getting potentially to c3p earnings.
We have the positive economic backdrop (EV's, Electrification, etc) building which will support Jubes continued sustainable growth.
We have Jubes expanding into Europe potentially through JV(s) with Caerus for starters. Getting the message out beyond Africa, resulting in further risk reduction, and expansion.
Are we saying increasing the PE is where the current "challenge" lies - and how do we compare to the closest competitors (THS & SLP... ?) ?
Seems to me that prior II's podcasts were all about finding this hidden gem and how much it has and will grow - which essentially is to our benefit too and as a by-product the reason the PE is where it is (i.e. under the radar) - is that a fair point ??
And given the above - what progressions (listing on other markets, further expansion, time, M&A... ) do folks more knowledgeable than me think might change the company status and give Jubes the anticipated increase in PE / SP Re-rate
IMO ATB Shorn

@Sumoskier
Given the c300% increase yoy, and the c3p earnings suggested by dorfan01 - what am i missing in order to estimate a new higher theoretical SP ?
Forgive me if it's obvious.
ATB Shorn

@tom111,
"...This is like a casino now heads or tails anyones guess if this goes through..."
Really ??
So using your analogy ->
Heads - a deal with AAL
Tails - No deal with AAL, and we move on to one of the other companies (x3 including 1 Chinese)
Being so close to the end of the already extended EA why do you think no deal ?
Radio silence and the fact we are so close to the end of the EA extension tells me we are very close to a positive announcement (more DD & research, time to negotiate, etc)...
For me this has JV written all over it because of the expanse of the areas involved and the graduated exploration Vs increasing demand and Copper price increases through time.
IMO ATB Shorn

Hi Ella,
The "no win no fee" for Rothschilds was not an RNS but a comment made by NvS in the IC believe. And i stand to be corrected.
However, if that is wrong then for me the current status would be more positive. Meaning, by now each party will have spent £1m+ in accountancy, legal, and specialist advisory fees - very hard to walk away without fully exploring the deal through - so in a way i hope it isn't without fees till the deals done, it keeps folks honest and engaged...
In terms of the last IC where NvS states that essentially the commercial ping pong has started, he doesn't actually confirm anything other than - no content and no detail but enough to show all parties are engaged. THE VERY BEST HE COULD SAY TO US legally.
If AAL had enough reason to throw the towel in you would of heard about it before now, no reason to continue with fees and sticking to the end of an EA which is simply a long stop date and not a deal date.
This board seems hell bent on one of the following...
-> speculate to derive a deal or more obviously a "no-deal" before an announcement of it - don't waste your time
-> create further doubt for personal day trading purposes - as above, as the movement of the SP is currently not relative to the deal been done - simply further support to all PI's being patient
What i believe is a deal is about to happen, what is above my pay grade is to say the extent of the SP uplift and how long i remain in this share following the type of deal it might be...
IMO ATB Shorn

@Ella10,
"...this could be anything including trying to solve the issue with Mushinge. I can't see AA doing a deal with a court case in progress. .."
There is never a large deal struck and signed without issues that need resolving (like a court case for example).
That's why during the DD phase last year and updated as we speak - the vendor produces "disclosures" which is ARCM's chance to show their laundry - warts and all. Then the purchaser requests a series of warranties against them which basically says you (ARCM) are held liable (£) if the problems aren't resolved.
It's not unusual to have multiple disclosures and warranties which to the layman might seem like deal breakers.
In my own personal experience on an exit (company sale) the then purchaser held us with a warranty stating that if the HMRC found against us in a legal national minimum wage case (continuing beyond the sale date) we would have to pay back c£1m to the vendor - one of numerous warranties that were held against us.
Right now ARCM, AAL, Rothschild's are sworn to absolute silence, and we have to accept this fact.
I think somebody said the deal may well be done and they are timing their announcement. In my experience at this late stage the outline of the commercial deal is clear to all parties, the lawyers are very busy writing the complex legal agreements to reflect all parties positions and the ping pong will be of a legal nature (fine points) rather than commercial mis-alignments.
As PI's we just have to be patient - the RNS will come any time in the next c2-3 weeks.
IMO ATB Shorn

@Sq52,
I like the description of EV "Copper on cost" @£16.60 pm - a neat way of simply looking at the minimal impact of that material increase. I clearly realise there are lots of other factors involved including government / car manufacturer incentives to trade the old petrol / diesel dinosaur in among other things...
However, the other point you touch on is...
"...even if nothing happens with Bushranger..."
I suppose this is my previous point, rather than consider whether 2mt is hit or not - let's say an economical mine is established at say 1.75mt - to what extent does the supply Vs demand economic deficit in the coming years drive majors to do a deal with XTR given the average "typical" porphyry grade and resource size....?
We have a lot of the risky variables covered off: country; infrastructure; location to other mines / processing; likely open pit (at least partially), all in a geographic area that keeps on giving, so consequently life of mine too.
Ignoring Bush Ranger would not be consistent with the supply deficit the majors face....
IMO ATB Shorn

@Sq52,
Interesting Copper usage projections - clearly the push for all things green (EV's, Wind turbine, Solar, 3rd world electrification, etc) is happening now, and possibly growing exponentially through to c2030 and beyond.
Meanwhile, we have the supply issue - mines are already squeezed on grades and digging the bottom of the barrel so to speak. Add in the prior decade lack of exploration resulting in hardly anything additional coming on line, and we have the reason many of us are investing in speculative exploration companies (those with a likely positive outcome - XTR).
My question is are we going to see a flurry of M&A's this year with majors feeling the "need" in the same way we see the "economic demand" for them to invest ?
I've read comments like $15k / ton required before investment will take place... - that of course would put you c1+ years behind others who invest this year.
I certainly believe XTR with a good independent mining viability report together with a revised jorc and a "decision to mine" made then given the above, XTR should see approaches being made by majors. Second half of this year...
IMO ATB Shorn