Member Info for Shorn

@Mikiesunday,
That's a long life and one of the many reasons we should be seeing a higher PE rate.
What would it take Jubes to get onto another platform say FTSE 250? where the PE rate may be re-rated ?
IMO ATB Shorn

CB has stated in his last podcast that the 2MT AAL option, and the decision to mine, are options that are running together.
I wonder from the generic life cycle of a mine shown below where we would be placed currently. in the 3D presentation Jeremy stated we were close to pre-feasibility.
https://www.visualcapitalist.com/visualizing-the-life-cycle-of-a-mineral-discovery/
ATB Shorn

@stevemocal, and others
Listening to the latest podcast and looking at the 3D model presentation (20mins in), my take on H13 is that it crosses the lower area in the open pit where they were talking about the waste on the east side, and the first extension. The words CB used were "...we (H13) went through both limbs and the crown.... turning waste into ore..." Looking at the model it may well be the drill hole just below the 3600M ("meter" letter on the drawing @20 mins). It clearly cuts through both limbs and if you go to 22.30 mins the image clearly shows how it passes through the grey waste. I agree with theiceberg H13 is a massive result. Assay results indicating the Cu grade quality of H13 waste area & 2nd limb will be very important.
H14 is not quite so clear to me, from the recent podcast it's clearly at a shallow angle drilling long and shallow in the SE extension. Further supported by a drone-mounted magnetic survey targeting SE area around H14 - the signature of which indicates potential higher quality grades (Jeremy Read stated they already had strong IP results in the SE area). Identifying the actual drill hole - if you look at the model 18.30 mins in, the drill furthest on the right seems too steep, i believe H14 is not shown, but runs shallow running right to left (NE -> SE) possibly to the outer limit of the current model. The words CB used in relation to H14 in the SE extension were "...skimming the new porphyry system..." and also "...discovering a shear extension to the existing system or a new porphyry system (the very furthest lobe to the SE)... he also said "it doesn't really matter either way..."
Jeremy Read stated that this potential discovery could be as much as 3x the original size, H13,14 have gone a long way in proving this, with economies of mining improving too with the Cu bearing waste to the east reducing the stripping ratio down from 4.3 (already a healthy figure).
Comments to the above are welcome...

Additionally, in the 3D model presentation Jeremy Read stated that "...the financial model is sophisticated and that the project was almost at pre-feasibility stage, drilling to improve the already inferred resource and that drilling would continue for the next 6 months with regular updates after the H13,14 assay results are announced...." - My question is when are we likely to see a JORC / confirmation of exceeding 2MT ?
JR stated that the program was for 25-30 holes, CB also stated they may start infill drilling dependant on the current program results as they present themselves.

Another question - decision to mine - in reality how would that work - JV partner, go it alone and use a processing facility in the area...?
IMO ATB Shorn

@EeyoreWaylis
My view is that from a macro economics point of view commodities are for the near term out of favour (lacking investors cash), combine that with folks trying to de-ramp and average down you have a bit of a perfect downward storm.
However, as Biden's (et al) economic plans play out into the wider economy and commodities come back into favour this whole commodity arena will change big time.
With that said - specific projects... company sales / JV's will have an immediate impact on SP's as in the case of ARCM.
IMO ATB Shorn

@JLPposotive
"...Whilst the US markets keep rising the JLP share price (together with most commodities) will struggle to gain traction as money will be flowing into tech and retail stocks and out of commodities. Just my opinion. Payroll numbers tomorrow will be interesting...."
Totally my view too - and i do think there will be a return to commodities in the near term. Folks should top up or sit on hands....
ATB Shorn

@theiceberg - understood.
Yes i agree, and it would seem the recent extended wait has been worth it.
If CB & team could update the 3D model with supporting assay results too, i really do think the SP breaks would be off.
My geo contact (through my brother in Aussi) did say that Bushranger would need to be something pretty special to turn heads.
It seems to me that Porphyry's have a way of evolving in size as drilling progresses. Nice to be sitting at the start of something truly big...
Economic, good jurisdiction, with infrastructure, and still open, and with relevant neighbours - all underpinned with the choice to mine or trigger AAL option...
IMO ATB Shorn

@theiceberg
Does this warrant one of your popular blog postings indicating the "what-ifs" from these extensions...
It would be rude not to ask :-)
ATB Shorn

@SeisNav, @fulmar29, @fukurokuja79
Let's also not forget that we have had continued "radio silence" - a clear indicator even out of EA period that discussions must be ongoing. But i totally agree with points 1-5, particularly given the timing of the elections with respect to impending drill results, i would wait wouldn't you (if you were AAL) before signing ??
The "non"-legal issue (4) for me is something that would be covered off through DD (disclosures & warranties), as with anything else that comes up that has any legal credibility, (which the latest hasn't in my view). BUT to repeat even if it has any legs IT WOULD BE COVERED OFF WITH A WARRANTY. £14m Vs Sale or JV value, is a drop in the ocean - move on pleeeese.
IMO ATB Shorn

Thanks lootgaloot - i hear what you are saying.
I appreciate you taking the time to share your thoughts.
I have 840k shares and am looking for some upside too.
ATB Shorn

Hi Trek,
So China is turning a corner - they had one auction of their reserves - seems that they need open market copper too now then...?
ATB Shorn

Thanks lootgaloot, an intersting perspective.
Any overall timing sense at The Big One - of when they may extend the drilling leading to a revised resource estimate ?
(Are we talking another year potentially ?)
In terms of Araya - "as potentially one of the largest copper discoveries in Queensland in decades, a proven resource could launch Castillo as a true mid-tier copper producer" - how proven is this resource ?
Are you saying this could turn quite real quite quickly ?
ATB Shorn

Hi aprogerson,
Thanks that fills in the gaps.
ATB Shorn

As a newbie, just trying to get my head around events coming up and likely SP movers, so in order as this newbie sees it (please put me straight)...
1-> Ongoing drill (assay?) results from the Big One
2-> Drilling started at Arya in September with periodic updates
3-> Ongoing results from geophysics? in Zambia
4-> Potential sale? of Broken hill assets
Reading through RNS's i get the sense that The Big One is looking like a bigger asset (with better grades?) than originally thought. A high degree of anticipation around Arya drilling too.
I see we are funded for some time.
Is the intention to sell proven (JORCD?) assets or JV with Majors...?
Please if anyone has the time - put me straight on what is /are the likely drivers effecting the SP movement in the future ?
And any relevant data shortfall. Thanks.
ATB Shorn

Kalasin50
My "thoughts" (only)...
Colin Bird is involved with Jubilee as well as Bezant and the interest in Caerus must be an overall interest both over & under ground (the synergy of such being well discussed at both BOD levels)...
History would say that the older mining techniques are such that the remaining grades (assets) under ground and in the surface tailings are reasonable to very good quality, varying to a lesser or greater degree across the various sites.
It would seem that if JLP & BZT can test and prove up those grades across enough locations on Cyprus, Colin Bird has reason to invest in the relevant JV's to the benefit of Caerus and approach the investment from his perspective with an eye on JV -synergy (CMRS, BZT+JLP) on that island ultimately addressing:- tailings recovery, mining, processing., refining...
All good for CMRS early days (SP), and lots of upside longer term for BZT & JLP.
Watch this space.
For clarity i have invested in CMRS & JLP.
IMO ATB Shorn

Sharegar
Yes i agree with your observations on Leon's 2019 interview where he mentioned other expansion into other geographies.
I also believe he said that they had no intention of licencing the processes and that owner operator or JV's are the routes of choice for growth & expansion.
I also have heard Colin Bird say that Cyprus being 2 hours away by flight makes it a "safer" first step outside Africa.
But with that said if a major approached with a cluster of mines (tailing dumps) i bet Jubilee would jump at it.
Interestingly, we are waiting for the various western economies EV / green strategies to translate into real company growth, and Major minors to morph into expansion and acquisition modes (i suspect the delay is the anticipated rise in metal prices).
Though a short term (2 year execution) easy add on for the majors would be addressing their tailing dumps...
IMO ATB Shorn

Burleigh - Excellent thanks.

orangecannon,
And as CB is also running Bezant also interested in mining JV's with Caerus, you know for a fact those grades are already known are what interest him in what's under the ground too.
A developing asset, reason to invest, and JV-synergy on that island, tailings recovery, mining, processing...
Watch this space.
IMO ATB Shorn

SeagullsFan
Thanks and understood.
Let's see if anybody can cast some knowledge on the significance of that combination of testing in that area.
Seems to me that the consultants have a lot of knowledge and are very much fine tuning the plan through to drilling...
IMO ATB Shorn

On an earlier post on Friday before Ella started again, i mentioned...
"...No doubt the "radio silence" since the end of the exclusivity is linked to discussions behind the scenes.
Makes sense for AAL to wait for election outcome, and gives more time for drill results too...
Well i sense the following news release today supports the relevance of waiting on the election outcome...

https://von.gov.ng/2021/08/28/zambia-to-strike-deal-with-imf-boost-copper-production/

Pasting one point made...
Musokotwane (respected economist) said, referring to the metal used in electric cars as the “new oil”.
“We are going to push production of copper by creating a good environment for more investment,” he said. “You will be amazed how much foreign exchange this country is going to make. You will not know what to do with the dollars that this country will be receiving....”
Bodes well for ARCM.
IMO ATB Shorn

Good find Mikiesunday, pasting one point made...
Musokotwane (respected economist) said, referring to the metal used in electric cars as the “new oil”.
“We are going to push production of copper by creating a good environment for more investment,” he said. “You will be amazed how much foreign exchange this country is going to make. You will not know what to do with the dollars that this country will be receiving.”
ATB Shorn