Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Still early to the party! Welcome

Not really sure what you mean there by stretching thin, 5x5, the team had the gold project before too after all and surely spent time on seeing what the best way is to monetize it, talking to potentially interested parties, etc, there's time that has freed up from the finalisation of the gold deal. And there's always be waiting times.

You do a drilling campaign, you wait for the assay results, you do a metallurgy study, you wait for ANSTO to be finished, etc, now they can focus on Manna Hill during those.

Or if the stretching too thin was a comment on funding, I doubt that too, all the warrants are in the money, no doubt there will come cash into the coffers from those and in the Crux interview Rupert said that they'll initially look to use 300k Aussie dollars to drill Manna Hill, which sounds very economical once again.

No idea, I think you were here already in 2022? Did you feel the same when they were working non both the gold and the Wudinna REE projects (before Boland developed into the prize asset)? I didn't feel they were overwhelmed with 2 metal resources and yes, Manna Hill is a bit to the east from Boland, but still very very close geographically.

Pretty sure the plan is for faster than that from previous conversations with management, I think Boland will be producing by late 2027 or early 2028, or before that if there's fast-track.

Manna Hill might not be far behind if they fully prove commercial discovery with the drill campaign(s) during the option period

Even MRE won't unlock all the value, I'd imagine we get maiden MRE around 100Mt (below 50Mt I'd be disappointed, above 150Mt surprised), pretty sure Boland is close to 1000Mt, but no need for that to be in the maiden MRE or economic Scoping Study, it'll be growth drilling beyond it for feasibility study.

But what the economic Scoping Study will answer (and Rupert might already comment on it at MRE stage) is the protected profit per ton, and then it'll get really interesting.

It'll be focus on both, Michael. Manna Hill won't slow down timeline for Boland from what Rupert said with MRE (end of year) and Scoping Study (H1 2026) still coming soon

But there can always be periods of waiting for permits, waiting for right drill to be ready when it's good to have Manna Hill to focus on and make progress with rather than just being forced to sit around and wait until the South Australian regulators or labs are done with their jobs

3 out of last 4 Mondays (OK, this week was Tuesday given the Monday bank holiday) RNS dropped. Would love for remaining re-analysis samples RNS on Monday, but I'm probably asking for too much - we've been very spoiled with the news flow recently and agree with you guys that it looks like news updates will just become even more frequent and exciting

Bit weird by MMs again to have mid marked at 4.15 and bid through mid (at least got shown a test quote to sell at 4.175 from Barclays 10 mins before close). Guess bid through mid means MMs have zero inventory to accommodate the buying pressure - which I'd imagine will continue given many of us still want to accumulate more shares in preparation/expectation of news likely to come over the next months.

Very happy that Rupert will do a webinar next week, to welcome the newer investors to Cobra with an outline of what they look to tick off the to do list over rest of 2025

I'll still have to look at the exact terms of that manna hill deal when I'm back, but it looks really good. Like, really really good. These are commercial grades, even the lower ones with the molybdenum, and Rupert and Robert have great history now of selecting promising areas for new drill campaigns & David Clarke will have even more interest in making that project work than with the others given the Springton Trust JV prospects after the option period. The fact that he wants more Cobra (or JV) shares in future for giving the option to this asset rather than upfront comp, well, just shows again he is a class act and shows his massive conviction in Cobra as a whole and Rupert in specific.

The situation in the past with Cobra felt like at the mcap at the time you had an (undervalued) REE asset & a gold asset for free that the market forgot about - until it was monetized for more than half of Cobra's market cap, triggering a re-rate. Feels very very similar to that again. Again there's an undervalued REE asset (it is still not at production, but my estimate is that if Boland goes according to plan that will be several 10s of million £ per year in profits), and a new copper/gold/molybdenym asset that seems so far to get treated as if it's nothing more but a hopeful that you get for free with the current mcap, when in reality we have some fantastic grades there already with Rupert and Robert having an idea of where to focus drills & David saying it's the most promising project he has been involved in in 50 years.

I'm not gonna say where I think Cobra could eventually have realistic market cap, I've been quite open about it that I think before MRE and Scoping Study, 5p would be close-to-fair for Boland with these milestones probably pushing target fair value higher at the time, but honestly with the copper project my personal take is that it should be 6-7p before MRE to not feel very undervalued, 10-15m market cap for this copper deposit that already has a 2.2% Cu hit wouldn't feel wrong.

Either way, I gotta check the details of the deal more, maybe I missed something. For now, back to holidaying.

Haha I was commenting from a whale watching boat

While I agree with your last sentence too, I'd say at 35m£ mcap and 2 super interesting resources, well done to anyone who's topped up at any price so far or is buying here, still many bsgs to be earned imo

Not AIM, Cobra is main market.

But the 3.95 you see is mid price, the 4.08 and 4.09 on Google are the individual traded prices, so just tells you there's buying pressure. "Real" mid should probably be 4p already given actual bid quotes over 3.90 and buying is very close to displayed ask

I'm on holiday, so maybe I missed something in the RNS, or did we really get the copper project with a 2.2% Cu hit for free for exploration with it only costing 1m Aussie dollars if we want it forever after 1 year? Isn't this alone quite possibly worth more than current market cap?

Not obsessed at all, it's an additional piece of information, not more not less, as was Ken's opinion. I mean I've been invested in Cobra when I didn't even know about Rick Rule and would have said "Is that the guy who sings 'every day I'm hustlin'" if you had told me the name

Either way, enjoy the bank holiday weekend everybody, I'll only be back in September, so hopefully not too many posts to read up on then :P

He sure did put his money where his mouth was, but is still a bit like a football club owner saying it's the best team in the world - while it might be true, it's still nice if the view gets supported/confirmed by an independent source (now probably Rick Rule is also a bit positively skewed about Meteoric as an investor in it, but I guess less so than a Meteoric director). Of course David's opinions are about Cobra, and Rick Rule's are more "anecdotal evidence" as it's comments about a comparable resource that is just already far further along the development, but it yet again adds some more sticky-hand-ness for me to remain a LTH for probably further than the target I had in mind initially. To be fair, so did Ken's comments earlier this week that he expects Cobra's mcap to be 10x the current one soon enough, given he also is a very experienced mining entrepreneur.

Yeah, which clearly has worked for him, but several things about MEI's Caldeira resource have been looking similar to Boland (ionic resource, higher grades, but lower recoveries at the pH that is used), now, obviously Caldeira is far further along the value chain by now with the PFS and the MOU signed and being included in 2 Funding Programs, but if as a thought experiment (bit of optimistic dreaming must be allowed on a Friday?) Boland gets proven up to similar quality, then it should get at least MEI's market cap (imo more than MEI, as Cobra is in the far safer jurisdiction). So if Rick Rule believes MEI's resource should eventually be valued at 3.5bn - 10.5bn AUD (so around 1.75 - 5.25bn GBP) moving between 10x and 30x from current valuation, then to get to similar valuation for Boland is a 50x - 150x from current valuation. It sounds way too high to me, not gonna lie, I'd be happy with 300m£ mcap. But have to say that Rick Rule interview does make me rethink my target.

I'm aware that I am a bit "If it shapes up to be the best project ever, it'll have massive mcap" right here, so I apologise for that, but the thinking does extrapolate from existing data of a project that has many comparable aspects & the opinion of a leading mining investor on where it could go when the deposit gets mined. So while everything (!) would have to go right for Boland - or Cobra as a whole - to shape up to such a valuation, I admit that before listening to that interview by Rick Rule below, I wouldn't have thought in my wildest dreams that an ionic clay resource could have that kind of fair value even in the most optimistic upside case. Anyway, it's Friday afternoon, and we don't even have an MRE yet, so there's that haha...so I'll calm back down and get ready for some travelling and leave you folks alone for a week and a bit

Seems he's also heavily invested in Meteoric Resources (talking about it after minute 20 when he mentions his favourite ASX stocks), mentioning that if things go right he expects that he'll make 10:1 or 20:1 or 30:1 from here, so given that MEI has been the project that Boland in many ways resembles and that has been mentioned in several presentations of Cobra's, that is quite interesting that he - as a very experienced mining investor - thinks that MEI has a 10x or more in it when it's already at 350m+ AUD valuation. So he thinks if things go right for MEI, it'll be 3.5bn AUD market cap (10:1) and even mentioned 10.5bn AUD market cap (30:1). Sounds crazy optimistic to me even though I'm very positive about REE's future, but hey, who am I to say no, when Cobra is following the MEI path in some ways.

Yes, he actually mentions at the end of that REE section in the video that while not comfortable with the jurisdiction most of REE projects are in (earlier in the section), he's "tolerant of the [jurisdiction] risks given the size of the rewards". If only there was a "(potential) world-class HREE resource" where he doesn't need to be tolerant of jurisdiction risk

I don't know if it has been posted here before, as the video is a month old, but interesting that REE made it into a Rick Rule interview:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h2Ri32PVHDg

6:54 onwards, essentially "REE projects difficult to value for investors as there's many elements to them", "governments spending their own money to secure REE supply chains which makes capital expenditure lower for REE companies", and finally "almost all viable REE projects are in jurisdictions that investors, or at least him, are not very comfortable with, he mentions Malawi, Congo, Brazil" (guess he has not yet heard of Cobra)

What about the spread, Beasty? 2 facts: 1) Mid was 0.47p earlier today, 2) even the bid side of a very wide spread is 12.75% higher than that earlier mid.

Is it ALWAYS necessary to be negative?

SP goes down -> "This is crashing hard, told you so"

SP goes up -> "But...but...the spread is wide, so it all doesn't count"

Been thinking more about the Barton deal, it's actually super interesting, it isn't just some cash in the bank. The first point is obvious, through holding Barton shares (actually a significant amount upfront after the next payment block, also at 0.8 ASX: BGD price) we have exposure to gold going forward also, and to the progress in Barton's other projects.

However, what really excites me...is that they are moving to production in 2026 according to the interview, which means they will have revenue coming in that can fund further exploration. And funds for further exploration could be used for Wudinna, probably will be, let's face it, if Cobra had not found such a prize asset as Boland, they would have pushed forward in proving up the shallow gold resource at Clarke, Baggy Green, Barnes, etc, the constraint was always the funding of large-scale drilling campaign there when Cobra only had 10m£ market cap or less.

So just hypothetically, let's say Barton go and throw decent level of funds at drilling Wudinna. Worst case, they find nothing much, but that wouldn't really harm the Barton SP much compared to now, as Wudinna so far hasn't really increased their SP, and we still have the cash and shares from the deal, so even in that worst case, walk away pretty much unharmed by it. Best case? They get it to 1m oz or more from the current 279k and develop the open pit mining operation. We'd benefit from that threefold, without spending a single additional penny on proving up the resource!

1) We get the Production Benefit payment tranche (and the additional Barton shares before that on hitting 500k oz)

2) Barton SP would undoubtedly reflect the addition of another 1m+ oz gold resource, so Cobra's Barton Gold shares would increase in value

3) This is the key one, if they mine the gold at Clarke, Baggy Green, Barnes, etc, well guess what, the clays on top of the gold have to be removed. Who has the mineral rights to the REE resource in those clays? Exactly. So the deal could pan out to be more interesting than it already is from the cash and shares alone, it's no doubt not the economics and potential that Boland and Yaninee have, but let's not forget that there is a 41.6 Mt REE resource at those locations, & an up to 233 Mt exploration target at Thompson in addition. Of course there's a lot of ifs and buts, but there is a chance that this deal can directly lead to these resources also getting mined and producing future revenue for Cobra - that Wudinna resource would ofc never have been the prize asset that Boland shapes up to be, but as a little add-on, it's interesting