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Great to hear Carribs! I think 1 thing to consider from a value perspective is also where SP closed the day before the Manna Hill news, 3.55p, so close enough to where we are now with that warrant-related selling, so essentially whoever thought the day before the Manna Hill news that Cobra is a buy (and I think most did, the trend was healthy with the Barton deal and the Boland news alone already also before Manna Hill), now have the opportunity to buy at that level and getting Manna Hill thrown in for free basically

Drama queens...

Just kidding ahaha

But come on guys, the share price is at the level it closed the day that the Manna Hill option was announced, which was just over 2 weeks ago. And the flow story with the warrants why it came off the higher levels from last Thursday and Friday after the webinar is also quite clear and not lack of conviction by anybody, just profit-taking by the people who get additional shares for cheaper due to their support in the 2022 raise. Doubt there was much selling that wasn't warrant-related, with many in fact being very constructive and acknowledging of the promising fundamental progress. Personally, I ask myself "where would SP be today if there wasn't the warrant flow?" and that's the relevant piece, because warrant flow is a short-term flow distraction, and if the people who had buying interest before the flow started still have it when it's done, it's not hard to guess how easily the SP moves back when there's mostly buying interest, we've seen it after the webinar after all. And fundamentals since then have only improved if anything, with the RNS yesterday about lower acid consumption.

& another aspect there, we also don't know how much warrant-related profit taking happened before the first RNS about it, because the RNS triggered the domino-effect of other warrant holders also taking their profit in concentrated fashion after it ("oh s***, somebody started profit-taking, so I can't leave it until close to the maturity either"), whereas before the first RNS about it, there might already be warrant holders who took profit on theirs, it wouldn't have been very noticeable during the past few weeks when SP was above the 3p but before the warrant execution RNS from Tuesday if a warrant holder took profit on say 1 or 2 million shares, given there was not the same concentration

Really depends on how much warrant-related selling there was so far, the volumes this week weren't low at all, 10.3m shares volume on Monday, roughly 30 million shares traded this week already, probably safe to assume that most of the selling was warrant-related, so give or take 15 million shares of warrant-related profit-taking selling are probably out of the way. We might be at more, I'm sure we get post-close late reported trades again today.

Of the warrants, 5.5 million warrants are the 3 major shareholders & management (very unlikely that they sell any), so that gets us to around 20 million warrants that are out of the way

bigmj on here mentioned he also holds 3,333,333 of the 3p warrants and plans to execute but without selling anything, so around 23 million warrants out of the way with that

would think that there's more in that situation - holding warrants but wanting to maintain same % stake in the company after all are exercised, that probably gets us to 30 million

So my guess is, we're very like 2/3 or more done with the warrant-related flow already.

And it also makes sense that most would sell now if they want to take profit. Why? Because once the first RNS dropped that someone executed (and sold shares in relation to it), that's a "Oh, so someone started taking profit" sign to all other warrant holders who plan to take profit, so then the next thought "Oh, it started, so I should take profit too, or I'll be the last left with much lower profit to take", then the next saw "Oh, it started dropping due to others taking profit, I better take profit too before their flow pushes it even lower", etc etc, domino effect. So rather than spread out and easy to manage for MMs, there's a clear reason why in these things profit-taking selling often occurs very concentrated once the first one starts with it in an obvious fashion (which was very very obvious here, because the first person already executed the warrant too, not only the profit taking step, so it triggered an RNS).

Nice MM!

Not sure it's "Be greedy when others are fearful!", it doesn't feel like there's any fear, vast majority of comments are positive about the company progress (and rightly so imo!), right? And warrant profit-taking also isn't fear, it's just reward for them for supporting the company with funds at a much lower price when it was needed. So more a case of "Be greedy when SP gives you good opportunities for technical flow reasons" :-P

Really hard to say telegraphist, we won't see RNS for exercise of warrant for most of them before very close to the maturity, even though a lot of the related selling could already be done

& then of course you have warrant holders who will not take profit and just execute the warrants, to keep their % in the company stake the same, very likely the case for Parncutt, Ball, Clarke warrants (so the major shareholders) and others who are more interested in the value drivers from here than taking profit on their warrants only at these levels, like bigmj on this chat board, etc. Then you might have some that don't get exercised at all for whatever reason even though they are in the money

Fair point ghw, the sentiment to UK-listed miners definitely has improved this year vs the last 2.

And it's also worth noting more that rare earths prices are still depressed, terbium oxide still would have to double to get to the start of Jan 2023 price, so even though both UK small-cap miner sentiment and rare earths prices have started to turn the corner, both are cyclical, and both have a long way to go to the higher end of the cycles over the next year(s)

It's just the technical situation that at the moment you'll have some profit-taking from the warrant holders at 3p into any meaningful liquidity, that was to be expected given the nearby warrants maturity. It sure feels like a lot of that flow has gone through this week already, but they'd sell shares now and only do the warrant exercise around maturity I'd guess, given that the profit is locked in.

Nothing to do with the fundamentals of Cobra or especially with today's news release (on the contrary, reaction was very positive, that's why warrant holders had the liquidity to sell into to take profit), gives the company additional cash, but yeah, creates that short-term overhang of shares for MMs

Yeah, less rare from what I find as well. Around 2000$/t for Samarium Oxide, so around 2.5% the price of Pr or Nd oxides, around 0.25% the price of Tb oxide.

So category "a little extra", not a game-changer in itself. But then again, the sum of the many "a little extra"s that Rupert recently generates...could well be a game-changer.

Ah yeah, probably because I changed it to public, calmcagram. Just search for cobrhelp in Telegram, I've created both a channel (plan is for that to be relatively objective) and a group (more opinion-driven discussions), both are public

I've written this in the COBRHelp Telegram group, copying it in here too given not many over there yet:

Very nice update again imo, in Rupert's style, no flashy headlines, but solid de-risking that improves the long-term economics. The key takeaway clearly is (again!) that Boland doesn't need much reagent, and the news there is that the ore itself generates acid, which sounds very cost-friendly indeed. At the same time, they’re proving they can get good recoveries (70–77% for the key magnet REEs) even at low reagent strength.

The Ce/La stripping angle also matters greatly and is still overlooked by many I think...it’s not about producing less, it’s about producing a better-quality product that buyers will pay more for. That’s how you move from the 70% industry norm to 85–90% payability.

And the big milestone starting now is the column test...bring on these offtakers.

First time I see them mention the Samarium. Interesting, have to look into that, anybody a samarium expert here?

The 4.45 one wasn't a trade from Friday though, just reported a day late, says trade date 4th Sep for that one (reported Friday after close).

04-Sep-25 10:49:41 4.45 500,000 Unknown* 5.60 6.00 22.25k

But yes, definitely more post-close late reports the past days and agree with your "obviously warrants"

Yeah Richy, I remember when you were questioning it and said something like "If the next RNS is about metallurgy too, I'm out". Well, that metallurgy is what makes the project, they were right! (I sided with you with that opinion back then though haha)

Once that margin is pinned down, if you ask me, the bottleneck is "how much tonnage can be processed per year", not "what's the total scale of the resource", I'd have said 5Mt is likely reasonable as stable annual processing/production rates, but given that there's the high-grade zones in the Yaninee paleochannel too now, I can imagine a case where it'd be 10Mt (5 Boland, 5 Yaninee) per year. My base case stays 5 or 6Mt as target processing rate though, that'd be 10kt of MREC per year, so likely spread across 2-3 offtakers needed for that already, if similar sized offtake agreements as Meteoric, who have 2 offtake agreements for 3kt MREC each.

Uff, 3's the charm? it's "t[dot]me" before the slash

****/+fthnbv-bak80ogu8

given that chat board shows very early signs of attracting a rather peculiar type of investor, anyone interested in genuine brainstorming on cobra, feel free to join the cobrhelp telegram group i just created

*************+fthnbv-bak80ogu8

Thanks for sharing Richy, the one thing I'm still somewhat confused about (but that we probably can't solve yet), is that the Dec 2024 presentation slides (Slide 17) had the 2.1kg of MREC also, but shows 28.9$/kg, the March 2025 ones you refer to, 20$/kg.

I wonder if the March 2025 one already adjusts for the payability % given that 70%*28.9$ is around 20$. To be fair with all-in cost of around 8$/kg, 20$/kg value is very very healthy margin too, but that value/kg MREC metric is the one I'm probably most uncertain about and need clarifications on.

My pleasure to share what I find out, Tom. Just hope that some more will share research too or work together on refining the valuation guesstimate of mine from earlier - given how many factors really are at play when it comes to REE miner economics, getting those valuation exercises as realistic and accurate as we can as new information feeds through to us will give us lots of edge while it's still early on and only a handful on here (even though it has increased, which is nice!) before it might get crowded and messy here too like many of the site's discussion boards.

"TZ don't grant licenses to uncommercial projects. Any percentage of zero would still be zero!"

Crypt, I hope you're right, but what makes you think so? There is a resource and from Tanzanian government perspective, there's only 1 spending money on developing it, Helium One. Very little reason for the government to say "Hey, we don't want you to throw more money on the asset" even without the company proving commerciality, in the end what's the downside for the government given they don't have to participate in any of the cost and just own 17% free carry anyway?

You're right that 17% of 0 would still be 0, but it's all a probability ladder, in worst case it's [x]% of 17% of 0, [1-x]% of 17% of [y] with [y] being the expected value > 0 in a success/commercial case. Gives the government positive expected value, how much depends on x and y, but even at a hypothetical scenario of x=90% (so only 10% chance of commerciality), it's still positive expected value for the government. For HE1 shareholders on the other hand, given the company shoulders all the development and production costs, high values of x would not lead to a positive expected value.

Long story short: It's pretty easy for a "partner" to be aligned when there's participation in the upside scenario, without real harm to them from the downside scenario.

Barton already focusing on the Wudinna Gold project, that was fast, RNS out over night

https://api.investi.com.au/api/announcements/bgd/c39c8b6d-5f7.pdf

Cobra's 6.45 million Barton shares by now worth 6.192m A$, so already increased by around 1.2m A$ since the gold deal end of June. Not the main story ofc, but nice to see Barton focusing on it this quickly and mentioning that it looks to suit as supply for their mill. The sooner they get it to 500k ounces there the better, given Cobra gets awarded another 2m A$ in Barton shares at that point.