Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Welcome back Ravenspads, bit of a broken clock if since last August you always say the exact same thing, but gotta admire your consistency.

Are you gonna predict "the price will stagnate around 2.5 till next news" like last September? How did that go? Never got anywhere close to that level and didn't stagnate? Thought so.

Please get some technician to look at your keyboard, as some of your keys really seem stuck, Cassandra. It's a better use of your time than to try and deramp a share that is 6% up over the last month, 31% up over the last 6 months, 289% up over the last year, not exactly a share price dynamic that is consistent with your "big seller" myth, unless there were a lot more "big buyers" than "big sellers", which would be very very healthy for any stock.

Yes, 100% Paul, but Cassandra pops in here every month or 2 with something like that, so let them, it's amusing every single time how obvious their deramping is...

Even if they actually believed that there is REE oversupply, there's at least 5 other REE developers on LSE or AIM, all with much higher OPEX and CAPEX, and Cassandra only posts that tosh here. As always, you get some comedy points allocated, Cassandra, shame that you didn't come to the drinks reception yesterday.

Will join too if the hail and rain calm down a bit 😂

Hannam equity research report is now also on the Cobra website: https://investors.cobraplc.com/activity-updates/rLWjGe-equity-research-hannam-partners-april-2026

Very solid report and first time with a price target (which Edison and Shard reports in the past didn't have).

Cassandra, please keep popping up here every once in a while, the entertainment value is high (at least for me).

Honestly takes an interesting mindset to act like "this share isn't moving" with +340% in the past year and yesterday being the highest ever market cap close for Cobra (and rather likely not far in time from its highest ever SP close too).

What other stocks do you have in your portfolio that +340% of 1y SP performance feels like "not moving", one may wonder...

That Sprott ETF could be very interesting

1) Inclusion would help in any case, as that'd mean they have to buy Cobra shares to start with

2) If/when China/Taiwan escalates, that's exactly the ETF that will see lots of inflows, let's face it, most people don't want to bother that much with stock picking and rather opt for ETFs and it'll be the cleanest rare earths exposure in that scenario, as other rare earths expressions in that space do have exposure to China.

There's also some companies that have smaller market cap than Cobra in the ETF, Ionic Rare Earths for example. So it's not just the Lynas-es of the world.

The question is if the ETF is only taking pure rare earths companies or are fine with it if the company also has e.g. a copper project, if they want only single-commodity companies, that could be the challenge for now (until the Manna Hill ownership consolidation at least)

GGPThru, Hole 17 and 18 are in the centre (the high-grade ones from last month's results)), yeah, Hole 13 (today's high-grade thick intercept) is right at the Western edge though. Look at Figure 1, you'll see 3 orange dots that are bigger than the others, that's the 3 high-grade holes.

Skarn for now, yes, that said the diamond drilling that he mentioned in the video update today very clearly goes after the porphyry, so a big orebody, and there are several encouraging hints that the porphyry is close with the molybdenite occurrences. So depends what you mean by "looking at", dusterinmong, the current results are for the skarn, the big targets (all, at Blue Rose and Netley Hill and Anabama Hill) are all about porphyry.

(Still have to look into the results in detail and the new chairman, pretty busy with personal projects at the moment, but all seems pretty positive to me)

I do agree fully with you that there's Tiers for institutional investors, no doubt about that. But Hot Rocks Investments PLC is a listed company, I don't think any of us would go through the hassle of setting up a publicly traded company, at least I know I wouldn't...granted it's only ~5m£ in market cap, so they don't have the scope to really pile in a lot more unless their market cap increases substantially, but still

https://www.hl.co.uk/shares/shares-search-results/h/hot-rocks-investments-plc-ordinary-0.1p

"Many people on here, myself included, have far more impressive holdings."

Yes, it's not super game-changing news, would agree with that. But it is an institutional investor, albeit not a big name, and if I may push back a bit on the above quote: In the end what drives the share price is buying & selling, so from that perspective, new investors are very welcome and move the share price (whereas we as LTHs don't move the share price at all anymore through our holding, unless we buy more or sell any), so still reason to be happy that a new small institutional investor wants a piece of Cobra, who knows, they might accumulate over time and have just dipped their toes into it for now.

No RH, that's impossible, they need approval through EGM for executing the Manna Hill Option. But entirely possible that this is exactly the next RNS - to call the EGM to seek approval for executing the option.

"so unsure if timing is optimal"

Almost surely not, but that's the thing, this decision wasn't about optimizing timing, it was about mitigating/avoiding tail risk events. If you assume they'd have raised in June anyway, then yes, the strong base case - looking at the news flow that is lined up - is that it would have been at a higher level. But the tail risk scenario would have been: Macropolitics hamper the global economy more than even now, for whatever reason results come in a bit worse than expected, and then what? In that scenario (even if as a tail event you only assign 5% probability to it maybe), SP would be lower than now AND they would have had no flexibility with timing of funding at that time, so if then at that time a broker says "sure...not a problem...50% discount to SP though", they'd have had to say yes.

With the route chosen now, timing might not have been fully optimal, but it protects from the tail-event downside, and it was imo 100% the right decision, avoiding that low-probability scenario at not that high a cost really was very much worth it. The amount is high, but 4p with previous close at 4.25p is less than 6% discount, and well, could they have opted to only raise 2m£ or so here to keep amount of dilution bit lower. Yes maybe. But if the priority was risk mitigation and increasing budget resilience to macro shocks, the higher amount also was the right decision.

Would've been nicer to be a week faster to pull the trigger on that decision, but that's also hindsight 20/20 to an extent, they played this inning really well as far as i'm concerned. And from what I managed to dig out so far about Hannam & Partners, adding a high-quality joint broker with a good track record in supporting with M&A transaction and wide reach in institutional and wealth fund circles, also doesn't seem like the worst decision given project advancement can heat up quickly. Not too familiar with H&P so far though, that was just from a quick dive into it, so would be curious to hear people's opinions on them.

Short addendum: Not saying I'm ever a fan of any dilution, who is. But honestly, I rather see them go into the phase of key company progress (MRE, scoping studies, PFS, & going after 3 potential porphyries in Blue Rose, Netley Hill and Anabama later this year) without the retail crowd (yes, us!) worrying every week "but do they still have enough cash"? This can shift the retail focus on where it should be (the company progress) and actually is dilution for probably the only valid reason: relentlessly going after growth with the company's projects.

I didn't expect it either, but it kind of does make sense, to not mess around from a "macro risk" management angle

They have reasonably big amounts of cash coming into the coffers, from the Barton deal, from warrants maturing in Q4/Q1, from the director options, but the Barton shares are still locked from being monetized right now, so it's future cash, not cash now, and with the maturing options/warrants there's always little incentive to execute them early. So with a lot of the drilling going on now and MRE/Scoping Study/PFS work starting, there's cash that is needed now: the Manna Hill option must be executed before end of August, and 500k£ish in past exploration costs must be reimbursed at that time. At the time of MRE, if thresholds are exceeded, TriStar also earn compensation for the deal that gave us the new tenements (Head, Stokes, Gillespie). So it seems a case of timing mismatch in cash flows, there's known (Barton) or very likely (in-the-money options and warrants) cash coming in in H2 2026, with some corporate action related outflows required before it. So it seems like the take was "it's still an okay level to ensure we have cash for the next year in any scenario", increasing the resilience to whatever Trump wants to tweet

Finally, importantly, I think it's worth remembering that mid SP all day was 4.25p, including today's close price. So even though the RNS rightly states that it's a larger discount vs multi-day VWAP, the discount to the last close (today) is actually only <6%. Which isn't too bad at all.

Yeah, 100% agree with you on that Paul, there's a very natural time for that and that's when Manna Hill ownership structure gets consolidated in future, which of course can't be before the Manna Hill option has been executed, and imo very unlikely would be very soon after, so it's not gonna happen right now.

Also I'd say Cobra has done very well on LSE in the recent past, ASX sure as hell wasn't more resilient the past days, with e.g. Barton down 10%+ yesterday, Viridis close to 15% I think if we wanna look at a rare earths name, etc. So I don't think resilience is better on ASX, macro market shocks are macro market shocks, matters very little if it's UK or Australia for those.

Where ASX vs LSE does have a lot of relevance is how mature the mining investment flow is, and on that front ASX is definitely heavier on institutional and HNW than LSE which in small and mid-cap mining at least is still rather retail-heavy. So do I think ASX dual listing should/will happen sooner or later? Yes, but not for increased resilience, rather for increased liquidity (daily volume) which would definitely make life easier with convincing some institutions to join the share register.

But I've said it before and I'll continue saying it: The tight register is the curse AND the blessing in Cobra. It does create the situation where daily market liquidity isn't that high, and where therefore relatively small flows can push the SP down quite a bit. It also does create the situation where positive news mean that many want to buy (a lot) more and availability is low, causing outsized rapid moves to the upside also. For a high-quality company (in terms of both management and projects), the sequence of positive news will eventually make that latter dynamic the dominant one, whether or not you consider Cobra such a high-quality company is for each person to decide on their own, I know what I think about it. And I say "will eventually make", but that's probably a little unfair to management, because with 300%+ up in 1y, that dynamic is already in progress and not just waiting for Godot.

Whoops, sent too early: so only MKA and PRE less hit than Cobra out of those quick checks.

It's nothing Cobra specific, it's simply Trump escalating Iran war, metals prices collectively taking a risk-off dive, and additionally in the UK the reaction to Bank of England last week with bonds also getting hit pretty hard, entirely macro driven at the moment

it seems excessive in pretty much every share, just quickly checking some in google, last 5 days:

cobra -15.5%

greatland -26.7%

orosur -10.45%

anglo asian -16.9%

anto***asta -15%

sovereign metals -20.5%

so very broad based in precious and critical metals small and mid caps

or if you only want to look at rare earths ones:

rainbow -25.7%

harena -28.6%

altona -26%

mkango -6.4%

pensana -3%

so really only mka and pre that have been hit less than cobra put of those quick ch

Very nice that Boland drilling has started! They're not wasting time, "our first batch of samples are already en route to the laboratory" according to the video alongside the RNS.

https://investors.cobraplc.com/announcements/7437898

Just search for cobrhelp_group on Telegram, that's the very active one