Roundtable Discussion; The Future of Mineral Sands. Watch the video here.
Schrodinger's SP, going to -20p and 20p all at once.
Just to do away with all that lazy "SP reacts badly on day of admission of shares on the exchange" narrative a bit, all of the effect of past placings was on the day of announcement/actual placing, not the day of admission. 3 out of 4 times the company raised previously, the SP went up on the day of admission of the shares:
Previous Placings:
16 April 2021, raising 10m£ at 10p (SP 15 April 2021 close: 11.70p), close on 16 April 2021: 11.36p, shares themselves admitted on 22 April 2021, share price that day went UP to 13.10p vs 12.20p close the day before, shares outstanding went from 496m to 600m
13 December 2022, raising 7m£ at 5p (SP 12 December 2022 close: 6.75p), close on 13 December 2022: 6.35p, shares themselves admitted on 19 December 2022, share price that day went UP to 6.05p vs 5.95p close the day before, shares outstanding went from 615m to 820m
6 September 2023, raising 6.3m£ at 6p (SP 5 September 2023 close: 6.65p), close on 6 September 2023: 6.25p, shares themselves admitted on 15 September 2023, share price that day went UP to 6.90p vs 6.80p close the day before, shares outstanding went from 827m to 942m
21 December 2023 raise, well, we all know about that, dropping from 0.75p close the day before to 0.236p close on the day, shares themselves admitted on 28 December, share price that day went DOWN (minimally) to 0.25p vs 0.252p close the day before, shares outstanding went from 956m to 3402m
It's not like there aren't success stories too when it comes to mining by foreign companies with a good share of local workforce in Tanzania, Franky. Shanta Gold comes to mind, with 2 existing gold mines in Tanzania, with VAT rebates received by the Tanzanian government, and a good relationship between the business and the government throughout, which has also been highlighted repeatedly by the Shanta CEO in interviews.
The government has paid a great deal of attention to evolving in a business-friendly way in recent years, and it's safe to say that if Rukwa turns out to be a helium exporting power house (which is yet to be seen, and which does not mean that HE1 will be the one seeing it through all the way, so please don't mistake for ramping), that the government will benefit on multiple fronts: it will be hugely beneficial for local employment, for tax revenue, and most definitely for attracting further investment inflow by multinationals if this becomes a big success story.
"LB cd really help ease lths worries here by just stating roughly when to expect the independently verified results, rather than just leave everyone in the dark and unsure."
Whatever any derampers will say, she's not keeping quiet for no reason. When your (small-cap) company is the most bought share in the UK in a given week, you don't go M.I.A. mode for no reason.
There's one scenario and one scenario only that ticks these three boxes:
1) Why is the flow rates data still withheld?
2) Why despite market enthusiasm (most bought share in the UK after the news) did they only raise pocket change? When they could easily have raised 10-15m£, which I'm sure even derampers will agree that this would have been a walk in the park on the back of all the positive sentiment
3) Why are they keeping quiet, when they could have posted/retweeted about all the positive external news stories? The Times article, celebratory photos by 2 drilling contractors that were involved in the drill and emphasised how proud they were to be part of it, etc
The only scenario that logically explains all 3 of these is that a JV/takeover with a major in the making, or a project finance plan with Tanzanian government in the making, and signed NDAs on the back of it with exclusivity for the other party. I'm sure there'll be enough cynics who'll say "who says they act logically?", but while they have arguably acted with elements of incapability and negligence in the Nov/Dec episode of this telenovela, they have not acted illogically in any given situation, and I doubt they are this time.
"She won't have money spare to buy!"
She will soon!
Yeah, for real Slacker, last Tuesday 2.16 close, this Tuesday 2.08 close, is that the huge drift lower you all are on about? 0.08p drift lower in a week in which we also had a raise that had been at 0.66p lower than that close from last Tuesday?
It's getting funny for real, when doom&gloom is posted when SP is almost 40% above the price at which funds were raised less than a week after that event.
If people weren't buying (which they are, there's plenty of buying volume), the SP might take it badly?
Great insight, outstanding even. Thanks for posting that.
But you did make me laugh, posting "These will go from 3p to 20p!!" about another share on the other BB 4 mins after complaining about people making SP predictions, so thank you for that. How about you put that drilling experience that you state you have in multiple posts here to use and spread some wisdom on potential next steps, timelines, technical challenges to add some value yourself, rather than just sitting on a high horse complaining each time when anybody tries to figure out the maze that these things can present to investors who haven't worked in that industry?
I mean, fair enough mate, but last week you posted yourself "Yes 10p, but £1 is stupid" as an entire post. So you participated in the same thing that you're now complaining about, without stating the exact condition under which 10p is realistic, but £1 isn't (even though tbc I agree with that assessment that £1 isn't).
Surprising that Winston didn't add: "In Yana's case, 2 out of 30 times with their own investments".
Well, what's not to love if that's really true? If you see that there's immense buying interest and you end up being allowed to buy at a better price than you'd get if it wasn't "held back" artificially?
Call me in too! Sadly IsoEnergy have a lot more projects than just the Gawler Craton one, but hey, just need Boland REE to do the rest, ha!
Indeed there it is, good spot!
Still rather hope that the budget stays focused entirely on the REE resource expansion, with a small amount added to also evaluate these uranium prospects, rather than stretching it too thin.
Don't know Michael, it's not all that much of a mixed bag imo.
If we look at the metals you mentioned one-by-one:
Gold: The gold, while close to surface and possible to mine with open pit, is not a company-maker size of resource and is more likely to be monetized in some form or another (selling it, JV with earn-in, royalty) to have more funds for focusing on the real prize. That's how I read Rupert's answer in the Q&A from last week at least, and it just seems like the sensible thing to do, especially if Boland turns out all that we hope for, which would mean the REE focus will remain at Boland, rather than the deposits associated with the gold sites. ("we are looking at the best options to maximise an outcome on our existing gold resource. We would ideally like to minimise CAPEX and maximise future revenue. We are looking at the best options to achieve this.")
Silver: Do we have silver? Don't think we do?
Copper: Prince Alfred site isn't one we currently spend raised funds on, so while it is there, it's not a case of "too many cooks", as it's only for potential future exploration.
REEs: The obvious prize, a potential 2000 km^2 district with easy recoverability (acidity of orange juice or wine), great weighting of higher-value heavy rare earths vs light rare earths, and a much much easier path to permitting and eventually production than many other "promising" rare earth finds, think for instance AR3, who have similar grades to what we had at Clarke and Baggy Green, but need much higher acidity than what Boland so far indicates and, even worse for AR3, is a location that is considered the prime farm land of Australia.
Uranium: Given there's a large amount of reanalysis samples from historic drilling, and - if there is any of commercial value - is also situated in the same paleochannel as the REE, it just makes sense to add it to the mix. It's been the element that Adelaide (later Andromeda Metals, who we got the Wudinna project from) have initially drilled for in the region after all, and I imagine given the similar mineralogy to Boland, it would also be an ISR uranium play if there is one.
So it's a pretty straightforward bag as far as I see it, rather than a mixed one: A very likely district-scale REE play, with a potential uranium play to go along with it within the same district, with a focus on economical extraction using ISR, as also talked about by Rupert in the 2 interviews last week, which I hope people invested here also watched in addition to the Q&A. Plus an existing gold resource that hopefully will be monetized in some form, but (imo quite rightly) isn't the focus of exploration work. All about resource definition and resource expansion, eyes on the prize.
Indeed Bob, found the RNS on the company website, not ideal that LSE isn't showing any RNS today for any companies when this one has dropped, as it is additional good news for sure! Apologies to Bonkers in any case, my bad, wasn't aware of the RNS without the red dot showing here at the top of the page.
LordChaos, reanalysis results should be very soon. This was Rupert's answer in the Q&A: "Guidance from the Lab was for mid Jan and due to an instrument issue they are now 4 weeks late. We try to give investors a reasonable guidance on time frame and unfortunately we have had an issue that has been out of our control. Results are anticipated very soon." So 4 weeks late with initially planned results in mid-Jan would suggest they're imminent.
Guys, what are you all talking about?
Bonkers, you mentioned the 7pm interview with Rupert from last week, if you joined it, you know that almost 100% of the questions and answers were about Boland and the other REE resources and how that's the focus to unlock existing value and create more value. So why bring up uranium again when there hasn't been a single word about it by the company?
And the REE discovery is not even 2.5 years old, how would they have "dug up" any minerals? It's an exploration firm. Which exploration firm has turned into a producer 2.5y after first finding the initial sign of a discovery.
Quite clearly, we are at the stage of resource definition (in terms of quality and recoverability of REE at Boland, both of which look very economical in comparison with the resources that overlay the gold resource), and resource expansion, it's 2000 km^2 of the paleochannel. That's why there's the drilling campaign going on right now. Then you have the re-analysis results being released as soon as the lab delay allows it, as pointed out by Rupert in the Q&A. You also had an equity raise at a PREMIUM (show me one other explorer that recently pulled that off recently), corporate action by acquiring 100% of the projects, getting a pretty exciting tenement for future exploration in Tasmania right next to an existing REE resource, a co-operation agreement with an in-situ recovery specialist.
It's hard to understand why you seem to focus on either (a) uranium, or (b) not being a producer yet, when you are invested in a junior explorer that is in the middle of a drilling campaign for REE, and awaiting reanalysis results for REE. What do people expect from these actual imminent news? That's what would be interesting
114 posts from you, on multiple companies, not a single one with positive attitude towards anything, not a single one helpful either.
Pointing out concrete risks would be helpful, coming up with fabricated and far-fetched conspiracies, isn't.
Don't mind if it does, Slacker. More chance to pick up additional shares lower than what is already an absurdly low market cap for a company with these prospects? Yes please!
That's 15 mins delayed, Frigger, according to your own link.
Okay, so 2.30 then UT, not too bad for a quiet day.