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To be fair, 5p would have been excessive today, it's still better to see a stable and steady rise, no need to straight-line to 6p and beyond just to fall back. So the perfect way is if we see steady moves upwards, that also allow people to exit if that's where they want to exit, and at the same time allows new investors in or existing holders to increase.

The fact that we saw some exits (which, let's be honest, we always will after a 30% rise), but didn't retreat in SP at all & ended the day with a 4.56/4.77 2-way market is a really strong sign that sentiment has turned the corner. A week or 2 ago 1.4 million shares of selling from somebody exiting would have spooked sentiment and caused more selling, whereas today it held up without problems even at +15% for the day. Perfect scenario is if we stabilize around here, with the next stable leg higher driven by fundamental news (which easily could be the IP survey results if they validate a 7.6km strike model for Blue Rose skarn, or the flow sheet news that Rupert mentioned in the webinar as pretty much imminent).

Very encouraging day, second healthy volume day in a row & no retreat after the move higher. If the positive sentiment continues AND then gets supported on fundamental news side with the IP Survey news due this week or next week (and flow sheet news on rare earths front as well), this could turn into even more interesting price action into that first Blue Rose growth/infill drilling campaign after Christmas.

Once we reach January there'll be Boland and Head drilling, more Blue Rose skarn drilling, both the copper and rare earths MREs, and some initial work on Netley Hill and Golden Sophia, the scoping study, at some point over the next months MREC being sent to the targeted offtakers, it won't be boring if the majority of these deliver.

Given the move higher over the past 2 trading sessions, it is worth taking stock: The market cap now sits around 44m£. Everybody needs to decide for themselves where they think fair value for these 2 prize assets (Boland/Head/Stokes/Gillespie & Blue Rose) is. And I'll leave it at that.

50 trades so far today, close to 1.8 million total volume, healthy given it's not even noon, 80% or so of that looks like buys.

Wouldn't be shocked if we see late-report prints after close again too.

I just wish LSE wasn't such a bad platform, half the days something is broken on here, even shares in issue for Cobra is completely wrong, they display 999 million, it's in reality 932 million, so they also display wrong market cap. Then they don't display the trades for almost any share today, sometimes not displaying RNS, it's like they have people doing those jobs manually.

Yeah, with the tightly held register, we're getting tasters here and there how much it can move with some buying interest like in August when it moved over 1p in a day or also on Friday.

But what's interesting is that these moves still don't are on the back of high volume, if the share moves 15% like on Friday with less than 0.5% of shares in issue trading all day, imagine the move when the herds arrive. When, not if.

A lot of it was luck too Carribs, finding the initial REE, and especially recognising that Boland has the much bigger potential than Wudinna.

But I think it's exactly right that delivering a solid process driven strategy with strong focus also on budget discipline was 100% what they set out to do from the start. That's what Bruce Parncutt did with Ed Eshuys at DGO Gold, building it from scratch to 300m mcap when it was acquired by a major, and a 10-bagger for shareholders. And that's exactly what they tried to replicate here right from the start. I'd give Bruce Parncutt actually more credit for that approach, possibly more so than David, but they had that idea in mind from the start for sure. And they were lucky to get Rupert and Rob on board, because it was then recognising the Rare Earth potential and steering the ship to this potential of two Tier 1 assets in Tier 1 jurisdiction, something that Wudinna Gold just wouldn't have been (even though I still believe that Barton got a very good deal on that)

Also in the September webinar, Howard.

The geophysical potential of that Blue Rose target is very promising, the target having 3 fingers of God (sign of big porphyrys) when 3 producing copper mines literally next door each only have 1, I get why he's so excited about that, especially with the skarn historical drilling grades being considered HIGH copper grades and likely having a large scale skarn too. That's why he's in "Drill baby, drill" mode, which is very unusual for Rupert, he's a metallurgy fanatic (in the best way possible though).

The thing that makes this really really exciting is that usually for a small-cap, this would be their only advancing project, as it was for GGP with Havieron. IF Blue Rose shapes up to that Tier 1 project quality (which requires porphyry hit in the DD drilling campaign in a few months), by the time the big CAPEX needs for Blue Rose arise, say 2028, (a) Boland will likely be producing at least in ramp-up stage if not at full capacity, and (b) all 3 copper mines producing just next door are owned by BHP, the largest mining company in the world, there'd be every chance for a JV to be pretty easy to put in ink if they see a new Tier 1 asset in the same commodity just right on their doorstep.

Possible, but honestly I don't think we should use total resource for the valuation, it's much easier and likely far closer to the truth to get to annual EBITDA and then use EV/EBITDA metrics from comparables for a fair value range.

The main constraint is the offtake amount, it's the main reason I stick to 6Mt annual ore mined if 1000ppm TREO, as that's an MREC amount we could sell with 2 reasonably big offtake agreements. If you wanna do 6Mt at Zone 3 grades, you also gotta sell double that amount and likely need 4 offtakers. But that's the point, I get to my number with every input on the conservative end of the info we've already been given, other than recovery %, I do think that very likely gets to 70% from the 66% with the remaining flow sheet optimisation and using a mid case for payability % at 75%, personally I think with the cerium suppression success and consequently 37% MREO in our TREO and 45% HREO in our TREO, we will very very likely see that metric pushed to 80%.

Alright, now that it's Friday evening and we've seen some nice flatlining today, I tried to look a bit more at the statements on Blue Rose skarn from the webinar, in particular this part:

"Now what we also have is that 1.6 km of defined mineralization."

"We believe we can define a further 6 km of that potential mineralization through the interpretation and ground truthing that we've done for that skarn unit at Blue Rose alone. [...] So we currently have that IP survey underway to validate this interpretation."

So this still needs to be validated by the IP survey (which we'll see results from within the next 3 weeks), but let's look at the scenario where those 7.6km of mineralization gets validated by the survey.

How much contained copper could that mean? I don't want to make up blue sky numbers, so prefer to stick to the numbers communicated in the webinar and looking at comparables.

It's hard to find skarn-only resource estimates close-by Manna Hill, so got to take it with a considerable pinch of salt, but one that is also strata-bound (and might have porphyry mineralisation, but the MRE is only for skarn) is Havilah's Kalkaroo:

https://www.havilah-resources.com.au/kalkaroo

Note that Kalkaroo has "only" 3km strike and over 1 Mt of contained copper (at 100Mt ore reserve, so just over 1% copper, which is in line with historical drill results we have for Blue Rose).

There's differences about Kalkaroo, for instance Blue Rose has different style of mineralisation and almost surely no cobalt, but in terms of contained copper, this can show how much there might be in the skarn alone if the 7.6km strike get validated by the IP survey.

Now the convenient thing (and why I chose Kalkaroo as comparable) is that for Kalkaroo we have individual-project valuation from the signed earn-in: "Sandfire Resources Limited (Sandfire) and Havilah have signed a binding Term Sheet under which Sandfire may earn an 80% interest in Kalkaroo through a two-stage earn-in structure, comprising A$105M upfront consideration (70% scrip and 30% cash) and a further A$105M consideration upon completion of a new PFS that will include a minimum 20,000 metre infill and extension drilling program (subject to execution of Definitive Transaction Agreements and shareholder approval at a general meeting)."

So Sandfire spend 210m A$ for 80% of Kalkaroo, so 100% = 262.5m A$ (=130m £)

There's lots and lots of drilling and metallurgy to do for Blue Rose before we get anywhere near that point, but if you were thinking "who cares about skarn or Blue Rose in general", that skarn alone if it's really 7.6km strike could shape up to be 100m£ EV without too much creativity needed. We'll need to see if depth and true width shape up the same way as Kalkaroo's skarn, but strike is 2.5x Kalkaroo's 3km strike if the 7.6km value that Cobra have modelled gets validated by the IP survey in 2-3 weeks and Kalkaroo skarn is a 130m£ asset.

What did you think of Rupert's cricket comments in the webinar, Michael? :P

Main takeaway for me was that the new high-grade target zones (Head, Stokes, Gillespie) are also named after cricket, like Boland and the previous Wudinna targets (Clarke, Barnes, Thompson, Baggy Green). It's actually quite fascinating to me given I have zero clue about cricket haha

But 100% agree, it was a very solid webinar with answering all the questions head on in a clear fashion & it gives us the numbers to value the rare earths more accurately once again, my calcs updated with values he mentioned yesterday:

6 Mt/yr throughput (depends mainly on offtake appetite, but Rupert said yesterday "initial MRE aims for generational mine life, 10-15 years at least, targeting 100-150Mt for the initial MRE", so that gives 10Mt/yr then, I'll use only 6Mt/yr to stay conservative)

1,000 ppm TREO (lower than Boland drilling results over the last years, keeping conservative estimate for now)

70% recovery (slight upside to the 66% from the column ISR results, as there's flow sheet optimisation room)

AISC $6/kg MREC (that is WITHOUT orebody acid self-generation, Rupert mentioned they target $4.5/kg with that, but keeping 6 until fully derisked on acid self generation front)

“MREC value” $33/kg with 75% payability (he mentioned value is now "well above" 30$, which could mean anything between 31 and 40, I'm using closer to the lower end of that, and with the cerium suppression success, I give it a 50% chance for payability to be pushed up to 80% from the industry standard 70%, so using 75% payability)

Step-by-step

TREO contained (t/y)

6.0 Mt * 0.001 = 6,000 t TREO

TREO recovered (t/y)

10,000 * 0.70 = 4,200 t TREO

MREC produced (t/y and kg/y)

MREC t = 4,200 / 0.624 = 6,730 t

MREC kg = 6,730,769 kg

Realised price per kg MREC (net)

$33/kg (basket) * 0.75 payability = $24.75/kg MREC

Unit margin

$24.75 − $6 = $18.75/kg

Annual revenue, cost, margin

Revenue: 6,730,769 * $24.75 = $166.6m/y

AISC: 6,730,769 * $6 = $40.4m/y

Operating margin, EBITDA: $126.2m/y

Then using conservative EV/EBITDA multiples of 5-8x (some sources suggest 15x for strategic assets, which the West's only ISR HREE producer would more than likely be, but again staying in base case mode), you get to a project EV range of 631m$ to 1010m$ (477m£ to 763m£). That does not even have anything from Manna Hill in there.

So yeah, I'd agree telegraphist, the 6p high "will be a good starting point", but even if we move from these 35m£ mcap back to 50m£, that's nowhere near the project EV that the rare earths project on its own demands

Wonder if that's on the back of the Investor Meet Company webinar or on the back of the SAEMC presentation Rupert gave earlier today

https://saemc.com.au/program/

Always a good venue to present at given a lot of presence from BHP also with all their producing copper mines next door.

In the end doesn't matter that much which presentation triggers the new interest, love the heightened PR/comms/investor engagement, long may it continue, this - as long as it's based on fundamentals rather than empty hype, and Cobra has fundamentals aplenty - can turn into a real snowball effect.

Rupert did state several times during the webinar that Cobra is well funded, and I've also dragged together all cash inflows start of the month and posted it here, let me copy it in for you again:

"I've tried to piece together all funds currently in the Cobra accounts or flowing in over the coming year - I honestly think we're completely fine until 2027, which is almost crazy given it feels like ages since the previous raise:

£841,842 as of 30 Jun 2025 (we know that from the half-year report)

I assume roughly 300k or so have been spent in the past 4 months - think that's reasonable given no drilling had taken place in Q3 and it was mostly metallurgy, so guess is ~£550k still left from that end of June cash balance.

~£1.3m from warrants executed (assuming that the Company House filing includes the ones from the 9 Sep 2025 RNS, so not adding those extra)

£99,500 received from Barton Gold (200k A$ cash part)

----------------------------------

leads to guesstimate of *£1.95m* current cash position.

----------------------------------

Upcoming known cash inflows:

14 July 2026 at the latest: 410k£ from the extension of the director options (2p, 3p, 4p) unless SP lower than currently by then

26 October 2026 pretty sure that the directors were not able to exercise their 3p warrants now given MAR rules, that's another £67k assuming they get extended by a year for them

15 Nov 2026 the 2p warrants expire, that's ~£2m

2 Dec 2026 first tranche of the 2.3p warrants expire, ~£840k

So all in all, £5.2m in budget to plan with until end of 2026, that's cash that we know will flow into the account.

We also hold 6.45 million Barton shares, 40% of those "only" have a 1-year lock period, so in August 2026, we could sell 2.58 million Barton shares, which at current Barton share price is around an additional £1.5m

So there'll be optionality around those Barton shares to have closer to £6.7m budget for 2026 if they need it.

I'm calling it...I'd be very surprised if we need any placing in 2026 at all

Then March 2027 another > £850k from the second tranche of the 2.3p warrants (the last warrants remaining at all at that point) and August 2027 the 60% of Barton shares with 2y lock-up could be turned to cash for another £2.3m (using current Barton share price), so adding that to the 2026 numbers, we have around £10m in cash to spend until end of 2027...

Then you add the *possible* additional cash inflows to those *known* ones, £1m if/when Barton reaches 500k oz MRE for Wudinna, not unlikely at all for that to be before end of 2027 too, any R&D grants from Australian government.

At that time project finance deal for the CAPEX needs should not be a problem and/or credit lines with future offtakers.

Call me a Friday evening optimist, but given Cobra is a company that has raised less than £10m IN TOTAL since 2018, we might not need any raises in future at all."

Webinar starting in 5 mins, hopefully many of you join

https://www.investormeetcompany.com/meetings/investor-presentation-967

Appreciate that it's always tempting to mention one's other stocks, but would prefer if we don't do that here, if you mention one, the next person will think "Ah, fair game then, I'll mention my others too" and the well-behaved and informative board gets chaotic like the other messy boards on LSE

But since you mentioned it, I don't know much about Jan other than that it's the exact same BoD combination (McMaster & Azevedo) that absolutely butchered the Harvest Minerals share price with worse than -90% over the past 3 years, so on that basis - that quality of management team and board are likely the number 1 factor in avoiding painful losses in junior miners (with quality of management/BoD being one of the big strengths of Cobra, although far from the only one) - I'd definitely be cautious.

Don't think it has been posted yet (only the interview itself), but the Crux Investor interview also came with a pretty good summary article

https://www.cruxinvestor.com/posts/cobra-resources-advancing-australias-heavy-rare-earth-isr-opportunity

Not sure in the short run, given it has impact on their bottom line, I'd expect 99% of industrial companies to be all too happy to keep buying rare earths from China and let China/Myanmar bear the environmental cost.

In the medium- and long-term they will shift away from it if there's more ESG-friendly options that are as reliable and as cheap, which is a big gap at the moment, as Western non-ISR operations might be ESG-friendlier, but not cheap (and therefore not as reliable, if the supplies companies do not make profit at lower parts of the commodity price cycle), and Western ISR operations so far (mostly Brazil) are not confined ISR, but the same unconstrained ISR as in China, so aren't ESG-friendly either.

And that's exactly the gap that Boland fills. Still incredible how it's not commented on far more and treated as "just another rare earths company", but I guess after that Trump episode of talking only about rare earths and trying to make a deal about EVERYTHING rare earths, no matter how uncompetitive the project is on profitability and ESG side, there's still a bit of fatigue in investment circles to really dig into the details of projects, even though those details completely make or break them.

5-8x EV/EBITDA is reasonable Richy, strong focus on heavies that are more critical should push it to the higher end

What was interesting in the interview is that Matt asked if Boland has "magnet rare earths", I get why Cobra are marketing it as heavies and specifically put terbium and dysprosium in the slide titles, but was a good reminder on marketing front hopefully.

"Our TREO has 37% magnet rare earths" after this Cerium suppression success is a very powerful statement, that's super high, 32% NdPr, 5% DyTb. Saying we have 5% DyTb might just mean a lot less to market than we have 37% MREO, which is more easily compared across projects. So lesson of that interview question for future marketing of the project: yes, we have high HREO and it's what makes Boland extremely exciting, but we also have far higher total MREO fraction of TREO now than most companies who have

Https://mining.com.au/cobra-strikes-cerium-removal-for-boland/

As last time when you posted with your agenda, just beat it Ravenspads. 1 (!) day out of the past 2 weeks with volume > 2 million shares, so extremely low daily volume and you try to de-ramp about warrants when the nearest remaining warrant deadline is November 2026. If you wanna de-ramp, who am I to tell you not to...but how about come up with some reasoning that is a little bit less brain dead at least?

But yeah, zebra can't change its stripes, eh? Looking at your posting history, in 2 months probably you're gonna say "This is going to 30p straight line" again...I'll remind you to just beat it at that time too, that nonsense isn't needed in either ramping or de-ramping direction.