Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Well, news better be incoming with 7 dots in the October column in the news flow timeline graphs of the latest presentation :P

"It did 0.25-0.30 > 3.00p last year.

Now that the projects are so advanced and production looming I wouldn't be surprised if it finishes the year well above 3.00p"

Yeah, it did do that move, and HE1 - IF things go well! and that's sadly a big IF at this point after so many less-than-optimal decisions by management and BoD - can have such moves, which is why it's still a hold. But let's stay accurate, in 2024 it did this 0.25 -> 3p move with 3.4bn shares outstanding, so got to a market cap of around 100m£. While this time around the shares outstanding will be 10 billion+ once the rest of the CLN gets converted. So the SP at equivalent market cap to Feb 2024 (which was max starry-eyed optimism including me) would be 1p given the massive dilution since. 3p now, accounting for the CLNs that still get converted, would be somewhere around 300m£ market cap.

Different things gents, Google always shows latest traded price (which has been a buy at 4.17p), so apparently Investing.com also.

LSE (and I think most brokers, Barclays definitely do) show Mid share price (average of bid/ask) as "official" share price.

Does it? It's exactly what happened 19th and 22nd Sep, moving from 0.30 to 0.378p, just to collapse then to sub 0.30 again on the next CLN conversion. Still worth holding through all of this hopefully, but why try to ramp this for new investors to buy in now when the more likely playbook is a repeat of 3 weeks ago given that more than half of the CLN is still outstanding?

It's quite strange of MMs to keep mid at 3.85, on Barclays if I check a quote to sell 10,000£ worth, they quote 3.91p to sell (strangely higher than a sell quote for 500£ worth which they show 3.865p for).

Real sell quotes through Mid, while actual buys trade exactly at 4.10p which is the displayed Ask, they're very lazy with remarking that, actual mid is 4p-ish

I'm just glad to see that Cobra isn't under the radar anymore with such high-volume days as the 0.1% of shares outstanding that trades today so far :D

Yeah, it would, but that's just UK broker rules, if it's bigger chunks, it's easy to classify them as "extraordinary prints" for which delayed reporting rules for brokers are very laissez-faire

They had a Youtube channel before the Investor Hub was created. At that time all videos were released on that Youtube channel.

No clue why they stopped it. Investor Hub is alright to engage with active existing investors (although lately some questions on there also go un-answered, and personally not really a fan of many questions on there being set to private, as it defeats the purpose of a Q&A investor hub), but it won't reach any potential new investors at all, and extra effort to put a video onto Youtube in addition to the Investor Hub would seem minimal. The extra effort to keep the website relatively up-to-date at a time of key news flow also seems minimal, but here we are more than a month after Manna Hill has been brought into the Cobra project portfolio, and you have the website still showing the pillars "Gold - Rare Earths - Uranium" (no Copper) and you still have Wudinna Gold as project even though the Barton deal has been in the books for over 3 months, no Golden Sophia in the Projects->Gold section, no Blue Rose or Netley Hill in the Projects->Copper section, but the Prince Alfred Copper mine that was optioned out over a year ago, I've been invested in Cobra long enough and have researched it long enough to know where the company stands, but anybody who is a potential new investor would be mostly confused by the info on the website.

"When the production RNS arrives, SP should bounce back towards 1P"

Genuine question: Why do you think that? What difference does 3m$/year (so 2.23m£/year) from production make for a company that has cash burn of well over 10m£ per year? 1p once all CLNs are converted would be north of 100m£ mcap, that makes no sense on the back of 2.23m£/year coming into the coffers from production. Rukwa always was and still is the make-or-break for the company, (a) can they make this "unique" resource work, and (b) can they fund this resource without more super-massive black hole dilution (and the small income from Colorado won't even make a dent there), those are the questions they have to answer. From our perspective all that can be said is "possibly they can", but one thing is for sure, Colorado production can possibly account for a mcap of 15m$ (11m£) if it is 3m$/year (anything further than that in Colorado would also require additional exploration/development & therefore funding), so to get to 1p, Rukwa needs to be valued at close to 90m£ on its own again.

I wouldn't say safer, but far better, impossible here to include images, half the links here get butchered by LSE, etc. And imo it's worth using the TG group more already, as at some point this board will likely have the fate that most LSE share boards share sooner or later, and become a complete shambles (for now it's nice here, I agree)

Generally would be great to see more engagement/conversation about Cobra, we're at a stage where many many doors are open for very lucrative long-term partnerships for rare earths developers from several Western countries, and as LTH I want to at least do the little I can do to make Cobra more visible on social media, which is simply necessary in 2025. I hope a lot more follow suit, it's not that much work to click like on Cobra tweets, to retweet (even if you don't include any additional comment), to bring it up in retail investor groups like The Hive from time to time when there's interesting news, or choose it for the monthly stockpicker there.

I know there's LTHs who still want to increase their position and are maybe actually happy that it still remains under the radar, but does that really carry more weight than increasing the likelihood that Cobra gets a foot in the (wide open) doors that present itself throughout the Western world? And making Cobra visible to more new investors, increasing average daily volumes (even when there was warrant-related flow it was rarely >1% of outstanding shares traded on any given day), that highly matters for attracting institutional investors. I think almost everybody here is in favour of more institutional investors coming on board soon, to support the next legs up, but right now that would be "Sure, we think about it and would actually like to take a stake in it when there's MRE or Scoping Study, but we can't, there's many days with ultra-low volumes, it doesn't meet our liquidity thresholds".

I think most here know that I'm not always in favour of Cobra's approach to PR, I mean, it's nice to have the Investor Hub on their website, but that doesn't attract new investors as they won't even see it, not putting the videos on Youtube too is an odd choice. Or the fact that the website still doesn't show Manna Hill under the Projects section at all. So I fully understand if some say "Well, the company doesn't seem to care too much about PR and social media strategy, so why should I?", but I'd argue that liking tweets and retweeting and bringing the share up from time to time in relevant retail investor groups doesn't take much effort.

Can't really remember who pushed back when I claimed that Cobra is still under the radar in August or early September, but...less than 0.2% of shares in issue were traded yesterday, and today not a single trade in the first market hour. It's almost impressive how under the radar it is. Just over 70 people in total in the Telegram Cobra group (which has many days when 0 comments at all), with 35 in total in the COBRHelp group (which is a bit more lively, but also only 4 or 5 engaging in conversation). Pretty astonishing when there's Telegram groups with more than 1000 members for shares with lower mcap than Cobra.

26th Oct is the expiry date

It was around half already executed, but as mentioned yesterday, it's pretty irrelevant how many were executed early, what is the relevant factor is: "how many were taken profit on already" given that as a warrant-holder, many (the ones who held Cobra shares in their portfolio anyway) were able to sell shares from their normal portfolio in early/mid September, which affected SP, but waiting with warrant execution, which is in itself SP-neutral. Look at daily volumes (e.g. on the 3 month graph when you click "COBR Share Price" above) and you'll see that volumes from 4th-19th September were crazy high, on average 3x the long-run average, which was the bulk of warrant-related profit taking.

So while after the expiry is "safer" if you want to guarantee to avoid any warrant-related flow, there's also a ton of news items coming up in October that might mean you have to pay much more than right now for the increase in shares. Given the daily volumes have fully normalized to pre-September levels on average, I'd argue that it's already pretty safe and that - other than small remaining volumes here and there - the weeks when warrant-related flow was in the driver seat are behind us; we don't have confirmation of that, and neither has Cobra management given they only learn about it at the time when warrant-holders execute and not when they (forward) sell shares to take profit, but it's a guess based on the daily volume data, not just pure finger in the air

I think you quoted that a bit wrong, the comment by the CEO was "U.S. doesn’t just need rare earths imported, it needs its own supply chain", so saying they need to import rare earths, but ALSO own supply chains for separation/processing. So "doesn't just" quite different from "just doesn't" in its meaning ;)

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/10/02/usa-rare-earth-lithium-americas-mp-materials-trump.html

"He also floated the idea of critical minerals becoming part of the AUKUS pact after talks with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer last week."

Hmm...if only there were any critical minerals companies with roots in 2 of the 3 pact countries...nope...can't think of any. :D

Thanks Richy, putting it on the list to keep track of and comparing to, looks lower grades from the Phase 1 drill hole map, but not like there are tons of single-project skarn copper exploration companies out there to compare to

Thanks Trombone, will have to have a closer look at American Pacific Mining Corp too then, Coast Copper seems a bit less interesting, that MRE they have is tiny, < 10kt Cu?

While we are waiting on the news flow to heat up, does any of you know of companies that have skarn-type copper/gold projects as only advanced project? It'd be interesting to have something to anchor expected value to.

From the early Sep webinar, Rupert answered one question in the Q&A on MRE: "[...] And so our initial drilling, whilst it could produce a mineral resource estimate of maybe 200 or 300,000 tonnes of contained copper, the opportunity there is really a lot larger. [...]"

The only company I can find as comparable is Canada-listed C3 Metals, they have an MRE for their Peru project:

https://www.c3metals.com/projects/peru/mineral-resource-estimate/

And that's around 52Mt of skarn, with 0.5% Cu, so around 260kt of contained Copper, which falls bang in the middle of the range that Rupert mentioned they could deliver on the back of the initial drilling. Also contains 0.2% Au, for around 330k oz gold. All that sounds very achievable even in the near future from the Blue Rose skarn given the confidence that they already get to 200-300kt Cu on the initial drilling.

C3 Metals mcap currently: 112m C$, so around 60m£. Sounds good to me for something that Rupert thinks they can deliver on the initial drilling campaign - but would be good to have more comparable project valuations, as C3 do have additional targets at that site, so I don't know how much of their valuation is pricing additional exploration upside.

I'm sure there are some, but judging from the daily volumes from 4th-19th Sep or so, that's a minority, the warrant-holders who wanted to take profit on the shares that they hold warrants for was no doubt the majority (however, given the volumes during those 2 weeks, that profit-taking seems very much done, with only very small warrant-related volumes maybe still left, but the daily average since then has come down back below 2 million shares).

In your example in the first line, molokai, I wouldn't necessarily say one action is 'good' and the other 'bad'.

Sure, exercising warrant -> cash directly to the company, that's good. But no SP impact of the exercise, therefore not contributing to the SP recovery, that's bad.

But also, IF price were to go below 3p for whatever reason before warrant maturity date, and buying on the open market (thereby saving some money for the same amount of shares) -> no cash directly to the company, that's bad. But supporting share price recovery through open-market buys at a time when it suffered from the warrant-related flow dynamics, that's good.

Still doesn't feel like any warrants-related selling flow is back in business. Yes, yesterday's RNS indicates that 23.7 million had been exercised by 30th Sep, which does mean that 20 odd million hadn't been exercised yet. But that's where it is important to make the distinction between warrant exercise and related profit-taking (selling).

For any warrant holder that held Cobra shares in September as part of their portfolio, if they decided to take profit on the shares they'll obtain from warrant exercise, it made sense to sell the amount of shares they have warrants for, but NOT exercise the warrants yet, as there's optionality left until maturity of the warrants (they locked in a minimum profit by selling shares above 3p, but they could make bigger profit potentially from not exercising the warrants and instead buy back the shares they had sold if the SP were to slip below 3p, in both scenarios ending up with the same amount of shares they held before the profit-taking sell). So undoubtedly there's a large number of people who have sold shares already in early until mid-September, who have not yet exercised the warrants however.

In fact, it's surprising that 23 million have been exercised given that optionality value of holding to close to maturity. That's far more likely warrant-holders who did NOT hold any Cobra shares in their portfolios anymore and who had to exercise their warrants to take profit on them. Or potentially a few warrant-holders who wanted to increase their share count rather than profit-taking, but tbh for those the same applies as for the group in the paragraph above about optionality, if you hold 1,000,000 warrants at 3p and want to increase your shareholding in Cobra by those 1,000,000 shares, you are also incentivized to exercise as late as possible, because if SP were to slip below 3p, you could increase your shareholding by that amount by just buying in the open market, letting your warrants expire, and saved some money.

What makes you think that? The actual flow related to warrants is all out of the way, look at daily volumes, it was 5m shares+ each day from 6th - 19th Sep or so on the back of the initial warrant exercise, but since then back to - on average - less than 2m shares each day. Not saying that there isn't small amounts remaining potentially, but warrants really aren't in the driver seat now...if a million or 2 of warrants per week (!) can't easily be absorbed without SP impact at a time of upcoming news flow, then it seems far more because there's very little buying interest at the moment for whatever reason than because of small remaining warrant-related profit taking. By all measures, we are back at daily volumes from pre-Sep webinar and pre-warrants related profit taking flow.