Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Seems strange to be back at SP *before* the Manna Hill project was even added into Cobra, it's one thing if it was a greenfield exploration tenement, then fair enough to not assign any additional market cap to it...

But for a copper skarn target that they can almost already release an MRE based on only the historic drills (& have high enough conviction to put Blue Rose MRE into the exploration timeline for early 2026)?

Would be a very welcome additional news stream, but somehow the timing for it appears unnatural? Given that the large scale 55kg bench study that produces several 100 grams of MREC hasn't been completed by the time (and might not yet be completed as of now), surely you'd wait a week or 2 to be able to share all info on that bench study and provide a sample of the MREC? Surely would make a stronger case if you can say "The bench tests are completed, these are the results and here's a sample of the MREC that would feed into your plants" than if you can only say "The bench tests are ongoing with some positive signs, but don't have the results yet and can't share a sample of the MREC yet"

Very different risk/reward setup though, Rog. I like Rainbow's approach as well and both have done great work with ANSTO so far, but (a) there's more than enough space for both to sell whatever volume of rare earths they can mine with both of them likely being lowest-quarter AISC, and (b) it's a choice between investing in a 130m£ mcap explorer with focus exclusively on developing a promising REE project, or a 30m£ mcap explorer with focus on developing a promising REE project & discover a copper/gold/molybdenum porphyry system with very promising historic drill results across 3 targets & additional exposure to gold through Barton gold share holding.

Both are good value propositions, but the downside risk of Cobra looks far lower with the diversification across 2 critical metals (and 1 very hot precious metal) through the project portfolio & close to a 3rd of market cap in cash or Barton shares.

Not sure molokai, if someone is selling in size right now, they are unlikely to believe in the company's strategy and are just traders, so in that case, happy for them to sell up now and put their shares into stickier hands. At most times, I'd say "always reasons to take profit", but right now with the October list of news items lined up, hard to see why anybody would, unless they don't believe in Cobra's success anyway (and I do mean "believe" based on conviction derived from project fundamentals and management quality there, it's nothing to do with mere hope with Rupert and David having assets like Boland and Blue Rose)

But it also seems like overall little buying interest to offset it, which seems odd given it's been just after pay day for most people (usually matters in retail-heavy stocks) & with many of the news items massively skewed in our favour. Take for instance the Ce removal/reduction one: If the RNS shows "it's not possible", we are still at 18$/kg MREC value, at 8$/kg AISC (and probably less now given those 8$ had acid cost when management were working with a 0.5 molarity assumption, so closer to 7$/kg now probably given acid was 2$ of the 8), and all calculations we ever did on profitability were using 10$/kg EBITDA anyway, so nothing is lost. If the RNS shows "Yeah, that's possible", we're suddenly at 30$+/kg MREC value, at 8$/kg AISC...and doubled profit margin per kg from 1 second to the next.

Only other I can think of on the top of my head is a "X warrants have been exercised for a total of Y added to Cobra's cash position & the 3p warrants that were held by Rupert and David had their deadline extended by another year, as they weren't allowed to exercise them due to holding material information as managers of the company at the time of original maturity"

or the completion of the native title thing in the tenements that we got from Tristar, as he mentioned in the webinar Q&A that the original owners have a board meeting in October where that gets approved

If it's not one of those 2, you'll have to spell it out LC

LordChaos's TR-1? :-D

Nice Trombone, probably pretty good timing with 7 news items hitting the RNS feed in October according to latest presentation (Large ISR column, Orebody acid generation, Ce removal, Flow Sheet optimisation, Pump Test, Permeability Study, & Environmental Permitting for the Blue Rose drill campaign). Will be an interesting month if all of these land without any delayed.

Not tiny spread maybe, but with probably 60-70% of shares in sticky hands, that's just the way it is. And tbh 3.8% through mid (if we take marked spread as actual spread - you usually get tighter when actually asking a price) is decent for investors who look for multiple bags on that investment.

Maybe too wide for traders who just want to trade in and out of it all the time, but if so, good riddance

Thanks oct.

Interesting, if you look at his responsibilities, he includes:

• originate, engage with, and then facilitate UK & European investment into South Australia

• facilitate opportunities for the export of South Australian goods and services to the UK & Europe

Music to my ears

Could well be that the SAustralian government official was part of Albanese's delegation given critical minerals were on the agenda, but would be easier to research if we knew the name of the official, did anyone catch it?

Yeah Bluebay, that's what my take is too, that it's a simple "lend, convert at big discount, make profit from forward selling" cycle, it's evident from the SP moves. The previous take was IF we take Wimbledon's opinion that it is "investors" at face value.

Wimbledon, and you don't question that the company haven't disclosed who the "3 investors" are? The ones that the company set up nicely to hold up to 10m£ in shares of a 20m£ mcap company? Being all secretive "all will be revealed in time"?

Cool, Chinese "investors" have history of picking up miners in Tanzania on the cheap, go on the SHG board here and see how people are still p**** off years after about that deal when Chinese picked up Shanta Gold just before value was about to unfold.

You're confident that won't be the case here given they're secretive as can be? Will you be happy if it's the case and Chinese company will put an offer at 50% premium to SP and you have to take say 45p for the entirety of your shares, the company celebrating a deal that "gave big premium to shareholders", all ignoring that SP was 1p before they set those "investors" up for an ultra cheap offer? Would 45p be higher or lower n your average? And ultimately: do you have big trust in the company's management and BoD not to sell you out cheaply for their own gain, pushing the narrative "our company attracted interest by an international mining corporation, who acquired our full share count at a 50% premium to SP", patting their own shoulders?

Not disclosing who those big 3 investors are is very very strange when CLN conversions account for 40% or so of total shares outstanding

1) News flow will be heavy with close to 1 RNS per week signalled in the presentation slides timeline from earlier this week.

2) Close to 6m£ of market cap are Barton shares (around 8.4m A$ now, made another ATH today) or cash. So mcap attributed to Boland, which has PFS stage next year, Blue Rose, which has MRE next year, Netley Hill, Golden Sophia, & likely additional cash and shares coming in from the Barton deal milestones, is combined below 30m£ right now. So doubtful there's much room for it to move lower even if there were no news, it's cheap as chips imo as it is. All hypothetical though, as there will be heavy news flow, just like there has been ever since June already.

The thing is, Mike, when the hope of "news bolting in one day out of the blue" is needed for the investment to do okay (and for the vast majority of us needed for simply recouping losses), that's not a very comforting position to be in with any investment. I hope for it too, for the sake of my small investment here and for the sake of any LTH, but that's what it is now, hope, rather than conviction that would be based on management's track record to deliver the project in a diligent and cash-efficient manner (that track record sadly points in a very different direction)

Ghost, no, there's nothing like that going on, the late reported trades you mention were from the previous day (22nd Sep), it's much better to look at those here than on ADVFN, as the latter doesn't include date on the reported trades:

DateTimeTrade PrcVolumeBuy/SellValue 

22-Sep25 10:36:48 4.10 1,000,000 Unknown* 41.00k O

22-Sep-25 10:58:33 4.15 500,000 Unknown* 20.75k O 

So there's no mysteries to be solved, daily volumes are very much back to normal by now

Interesting switch of opinion Louise. They have more cash than mcap? Well, they still have 5m+ of it debt, and all of that cash has been already allocated to activities in Q4, so won't have any cash once again by early 2026. So yes, they currently have cash, but we also know it'll be very soon gone again. The only thing re-rating this a lot is very positive results from the Rukwa tests. Colorado doesn't move the needle, their JV partner owns 50% too and has a total mcap of 8m£ or so. And they also have cash, so half of Colorado isn't valued even at 8m£ by market.

"Nothing has changed" other than 4bn shares getting added to a company with 6bn shares or so outstanding before it. That's kind of the point, the project economics haven't changed that much since Feb 2024, just your shareholding stake in those project economics is a third of what it was at the time, or a tenth of what it was in Sep 2023, 2 years ago. So yeah, nothing has changed about the project prospectivity, but everything has changed about your slice of the pie

Honestly, I doubt this was "before it was noticed". The challenge for others were likely the dispute of 2 different native title claims.

Having 50 years of mining experience in this exact region of Australia probably helped a lot in mediating that dispute and he might have been one of the only people able to do so. With native title claims it's not always just about money (which the likes of BHP of course have plenty of), but also about heritage and culture, and for that, a guy who's been involved in South Australia for decades and also has (or at least seems to have) a genuine interest in environmental stewardship was probably just what the doctor ordered

NicRio, while it's true that mining projects that exploration companies hold take years to develop and that SP trajectory is rarely a straight line up during it, 2 things are very important during those years: budget discipline, and ability to raise cash at little to no dilution. The BOD here have not been good at either, with this 10m£ cash raise again being at least at 70% discount (if rest gets converted at the same price as today's conversion notice) to the SP close the day before the funding announcement.

It'd be one thing if they had crazy prospects with the projects, but you have junior miners with more advanced main project, a disciplined and heavily invested BOD, and also potential 100m$/year EBITDA or more, which just makes this share vastly worse risk/reward at this point. Can it go higher from here in the long term? Maybe, really depends also on when the NEXT raise is dnd at what price given the raised funds had all been earmarked for some tasks already. But is it the best risk/reward setup in junior mining space you could invest your hard earned money in? Absolutely not

I noticed that too Richy, the option exercise sitting before both MREs (REE and Blue Rose skarn) in the timeline. Hard to see it as coincidence, it seems like a very very strong signal that David wants to get his shares for it before MREs and that they expect SP to be a lot higher by end of Q1 with MREs and Scoping Study in.

Have to say that the timelines look ambitious to me. But hey, to see PFS starting in April, I'm happy even if that ends up a quarter shifted back or so