Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

100% LordChaos, that's the thing, the significant shareholders like David Clarke sell a bean of their 30% or whatever it is at this market cap when they have every step of the way increased their holdings as much as possible? Doubt that. Or some of the PIs here who have been in this for 4 years or even longer sell a bean at this market cap when it could be 200-300m£ without too creative thinking by the time production comes along in 2027 or 2028? I know that nobody who wants to buy any shares on future RNS will get their hands on my 2.5% at a 3p handle, or a 4p handle, or a 5p handle, and I'd think it's very similar for other big PI holders like bitcoinbuyer.

"Black coffee, no sugar" *takes a sip* :-D

He's in very good spirits, and very very good to see him talk about the project economics and that this reduced extraction cost means that it's even profitable for lower grades. Is it weird to feel excited about the upcoming MRE and what lies beyond even though it's still 3-6 months away?

What counts even more than the still 25-30m£ market cap imo...is that there might not be much (if any?) dilution left on the way to production. There is cash from the Barton deal, as long as the SP can keep climbing steadily here (which it should, as this isn't even close to fair value as far as I'm concerned given the project derisking steps that have been completed & there being another similar deposit in the second paleochannel & the entire China situation with critical mineral policies of Western countries becoming more hawkish), the 3p warrants will be able to finance all the infill drilling, the 2p warrants that still have a long run-time will also most likely get executed over time, very little reason not to. And then I'd imagine there's ways to finance to production with offtake agreement and possibly grants.

I'd say you are still early Zazzy, it's still so so so under the radar as one of very few small-cap explorers on main market (a lot of retail investors interested in that space only follow AIM). Around 28m£ market cap, with production 2, maybe at most 3, years away. This RNS today is very nice, I think everybody in retail space (including me) usually doesn't get very excited about metallurgy RNS, but when it's right after an exciting set of news on drilling and re-analysis and right before another set of re-analysis results and infill drilling campaign...then it hits all the right spots, all these other RNS point to long-lived high revenue for the company, and this one points to lower operational cost than expected (haven't seen them mention pH of 4 or 5 before), so that's straight increase in profits down the line.

VWAP today 2.8486, so almost only buys, can't be far from getting market higher, time for MMs to move to 2.80/2.90 or 2.80/3.00 as doesn't feel like much (or any?) selling interest left at that 2.70 level, while buying interest still goes strong.

Makes total sense too, given we get the remaining 1000+ re-analysis sample results within the next 2-4 weeks, probably a good strategy to get to the holding size one wants to before that and avoid paying more for the shares, because if theses 1000 samples are in line with the first part of the re-analysis, the message could easily be "Hey guys, we have a 2nd resource, similar in scale to Boland, and now we do all the infill drilling, which at the Yaninee paleochannel resource is expected to bring substantial grade upside (as explained already by Rupert in the video from the previous RNS)".

It COULD happen that Australian grants help further with fast-tracking to production, Cobra has obtained some in the past (albeit small):

https://investors.cobraplc.com/announcements/4930434

But it's not really necessary imo, everything is well on track, things like that would just be extras over and above.

Interesting video, thanks for sharing, really drives it home how the US need these materials desperately. As does the EU especially with the substantial increase in defence spending. Then you have Australia already talking about implementing price floors. It's barely even begun, but finally the complacency about the "West"'s absurd dependency on China (depending on the goodwill of your biggest adversary to supply you with the materials you need to beat them on a potential battlefield) is getting shaken up.

Honestly, not too sure, that's what I meant some days ago with them being treated as a bit "inbetween", Australia treats them as UK company a bit, UK treats them as Australian company a bit. Things like the Australian rare earths price floor that was discussed as part of their critical mineral strategy would benefit Cobra just the same, but I think they need to be closer to production to get much out of Aussie grants. That said, with Cobra being one of the few Europe-listed REE companies, this could come in very handy, Australia itself has no real shortage of rare earths, the EU does...so could easily see that as a winning strategy, potentially getting a EU-based offtake agreement and then with Cobra supplying a EU-based company with REEs, EU grants are likely on the table too.

In other news, VWAP today 2.83, MMs leave mid at 2.75 with absurd spread, it's becoming a bit ridiculous how lazy MMs are with this stock, I mean it's possible to move mid by 0.025 too, somebody needs to tell them that 0.05 isn't the smallest possible mid move lol

Not that much of a wait, we still get 1000+ re-analysis samples from that Yaninee paleochannel, and if you look at the map in the latest RNS & see that the high-grade zones mostly are at the edges of the paleochannel, it seems likely that from these outstanding samples we get at least 1 more high-grade zone in Yaninee. So far the high-grade zones are 80 km2, so very likely the rest of the re-analysis results brings that to 100 km2+ of high-grade zones, constituting a second resource for Cobra very similar to Boland - so even though most of us saw it mainly as filler RNS when these new tenements were brought into the Cobra portfolio, in retrospect it was a key acquisition.

Let's see what the results bring, ideal would be at least 1 (maybe even 2 from looking at location of the remaining holes to report) more high-grade zone, and also ideal would be if those can finally get us well through 3p (still cheap as chips with suddenly 2 big-scale projects being the prospect and not just 1) to bring in the funds from the 3p warrants. If that happens, imo sky is the limit, as it'd give them all the funds they need to do the infill drills for those 2 projects and get the MRE out (tbh I don't care too much if that's this side of year end or Q1 next year, I'd almost prefer for them to go big and bring as much as they possibly can into the maiden MRE), and well...let's just say if it's a 100 Mt+ resource in the maiden MRE and there are no metallurgy/ISR setbacks on the way (doesn't look like there will be), I'd be surprised if the 3p level sticks around for long too. Exciting times.

Also for everyone who's been here for a few years...

https://x.com/ken_kfwatson

Even Ken is approving of what COBR are doing these past months with the gold and REE assets, it's great to see after we all clashed quite a bit with him in past years when he claimed they need to walk away from REE and find a lithium asset or focus on tin instead. Hope you stop by in this forum sooner or later again, sir, as much as I often disagreed with your takes, it's always interesting to read your opinion.

Agreed, there's definitely some bigger prints since the Barton deal RNS, but it feels more like new retail investors coming on board building a stake, and being new to Cobra that likely results in bigger prints than the ones from the few of us who already hold 1% or 2% or 3% of the shares outstanding.

As for warrants, unsure, the 2p warrants have an expiry date far in the future, so it's hard to tell, as the warrant holders can also opt to wait and execute them closer to the time with MRE out and all - imo actually potentially a good sign that they haven't been executed yet, as it indicates that big warrant holders don't just want to execute the warrants at 2p and then immediately dump the shares at 2.60p or wherever, but are more interested in the longer-term upside.

I'd think if we can clear 3p and stay above that soon, the 3p warrants will be executed first, as they expire end of Oct. Would be nice if we clear that level well before then and all gets executed, as it'd bring around 1.4m£ into the budget, and with these newly identified high-grade areas from the re-analysis (and supposedly more to come from the remaining batches of re-analysis), that all would allow to aim for one hell of an infill drilling campaign and a massive maiden MRE. That said, there's no rush now, the last 2-3 months have been strategically extremely well executed by Cobra management and they have different options now...personally I'd prefer to see a massive drilling campaign aiming for biggest possible maiden MRE to really drive it home to all how big this resource shapes up to be, even if that might take a month or 2 longer than initially planned, than opting for just the Boland drilling and leaving those other high-grade areas for later.

It's getting marked strangely again though, if you look at all trades listed today, the VWAP (volume-weighted average price) is 2.7198. Marking mid at 2.6, and bid at 2.5 when the lowest print all day was 2.56...takes some creativity.

Let's see, definitely big volume behind the moves, which is nice to see, with those late-reported 250k-300k shares prints coming in now from before 10am

Of course deep, that's all well known that there has been big dilution in the past and that many were hurt, again, particularly by the Dec 2023 funding. That said, I'm sure the vast majority of them were able to average down A LOT given the scale of the dilution back then, if they chose to. Yes, there probably are a handful who couldn't, and that's frustrating, and hopefully nobody was over-exposed to the share.

However, it looked bleak in Dec 2023. It was basically all-in on that drill campaign. And there was a discovery and since then the SP tripled (and yes, at several points since then of course had been many more bags than that, we are at the lower end of the range since then, but at least with funding sorted again for the foreseeable future). So if a LTH who couldn't average down is mad at the BoD, hey, you have every right to! But since that Dec 2023 funding, a lot of things have gone right for the company, part of that was luck no doubt, as it could just as easily have happened that the drill campaign they funded with that money back then was another duster and the company would have delisted and the LTH's holdings would be worth 0. So serious question: While they may very well be unhappy with the Dec 2023 dilution, because they were hurt a lot by it, what are they unhappy with now? The value of their holdings also has tripled since even if they haven't averaged down. And would they have preferred the alternative, for the company to fail entirely, and the value of their holdings being wiped out completely by it?

Thing is, Benroom, every mining exploration firm needs to raise funds, that's just part of the game. And there's zero doubt about it that HE1 board have been bad at that part not only one time, but several times. That's a fact, and I think nobody will deny it, particularly the Dec 2023 raise at 0.25.

However, from that level, over the past 1.5 years, even at the level we are now, the SP almost tripled, a promising discovery had been made at the main asset in Tanzania (granted, it's still unclear how to bring that to production, but a discovery is better than no discovery), and an additional asset with near-term production has been added in a second geography, which is never a bad thing to avoid having only 1 asset in a not-so-straightforward mining jurisdiction.

So maybe it's not "happy clappers", but people who acknowledge the progress that has been made in both the projects and the SP since that low point that was the Dec 2023 raise.

They're just here to tell you "I told you so" when the SP goes against you, which is somewhat amusing to think that they're spending their time like that. Then when SP goes up for a prolonged period of time, suddenly they are gone, and the people who were optimistic about the outlook for the company don't get to "I told you so" mode but are just...happy.

That's between you and the broker you use wurzel, you can instruct the broker that you intend to vote yourself, otherwise it defaults to the broker voting for you as a proxy. It's a fair vote, as every shareholder could vote, if you didn't know how to instruct your broker to do so, surely that's on you, doesn't make it unfair.

No, that +10.5% in Barton was due to another asset, see their ASX announcement:

https://bartongold.com.au/investor/asx-announcements/

Nice to have exposure to them (and to gold in general) through the Barton shares that are allocated to Cobra

With all the Australian majors (Lynas, Iluka, Arafura) moving up 6-10% on that news story, and most ASX-listed small-cap too like AR3 being 7% up on it, surprising that it doesn't push Cobra too much - I guess it's still the case that it's a bit inbetween fronts being a "UK-based" Australian rare earths company, but so be it, as those positive fundamentals benefit Cobra just as much if that price floor is implemented by the Australian government, which sounds very likely from the article ("price floor part of Australia's critical minerals reserve strategy")

It mentions Australian government thinking about price floor for rare earths (and other critical minerals)