Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

Wouldn't be so sure that it'll hover around this price for long, it's evident from the transaction data that there's still a few with larger holding who seem to want to take profit for whatever reason (maybe personal things like house deposit), from lines like the 17k+£ trade at 2.50 at 12:29. That just means those shares get soaked up by stickier hands.

There's already not a whole lot of free float in COBR up for grabs, so if more now moves into sticky hands again of people who take the view that fair value is definitely not on a 2p handle, then the next positive news will be nice to watch (and hopefully bring more of a rerate to closer to fair value - unless anybody truly thinks fair value for this resource is somewhere around 15m£, given the rest is the cash and shares from the Barton deal)

May be, but 23m£ market cap (especially keeping in mind that around 7m£ market cap need to be attributed to the gold deal, so cash & Barton shares) seems nevertheless crazy low when there's Boland getting advanced and 2 separate target areas with what looks like very similar setup to Boland now. Would have thought we are well into the 3s by now.

Kind of telling to comment this with a "Strong Sell" tag @rogadar, your intentions for posting something without value and proof like that must be questioned. I think there's worse stocks to hold, even at that level it's 170% up since start of 2024, if that's the worst to hold, happy days. Very insincere to try to bring sentiment down to Dec 2023 days, when the company since then has made a promising discovery at the main asset and has a JV at a second asset that is close to production.

It even says so in the RNS, that the fundraise is not just for advancing Galactica to production. It includes "further advance towards development in southern Rukwa". So given that we know from the Bluestar raise that the Galactica part takes around 2.2m£ (4.5m AUD), that makes it likely that 2.2m are for Galactica, 8.8m£ for Rukwa development.

@Bluebay, what do you mean "raising twice as much extra money to bring it into production"? BNL are raising 4.5m AUD, so around 2.2m£, which means HE1 raise 5 times that amount, not twice. Surely a lot of that goes towards productive progress with the Tanzanian asset, Galactica doesn't require that much.

Interesting the selling volume today - very odd decision to sell at a time when re-analysis results are expected to drop in 4 tranches over the next week, which could (probably will?) make an already big footprint even bigger

Yeah, seems a bit silly again, sell quote at 2.535, when they keep mid at 2.50...feels like "real" mid is 2.55

Was true before the gold asset sale too to be fair, never made sense that the gold assets essentially were attributed 0 value. And market cap before the gold assets were sold was below those 14.7m£ you mention and still not many bought at the time - always puzzles me why it takes an RNS to buy shares of a company that looks incredibly good risk/reward.

Agree overall, imo until we hit 5p, it's in "severely undervalued" territory, and probably only lingers around this price due to human psychology ("yeah, but, it's been on a 1p handle not long ago, maybe I get it cheaper" despite the situation and sentiment having changed & likely most saying that and waiting will only end up buying at a higher price at a future date). Once it gets to 5p, so around 40-45m£ market cap, that's where the MRE, Scoping Study, and potentially offtake agreement or JV are likely needed to break through that and it might be time to pause and wait for those check boxes to be ticked, but until then it's hard to find any explorer with the value proposition that Cobra has (resource that looks to be province-scale, one of the safest mining jurisdictions, one of the metals that will almost surely be weaponised further in the cold war between China and the West, board of directors heavily invested, budget used in efficient manner, any necessary raises done at no or minimal discount to SP, generally very low free float, etc)

Don't know anything about the Brazilian company you mentioned, but from looking at an investor presentation on their website it looks like their resource while big is below 800 ppm TREO? It looks far more comparable to the REE footprint that was at Clarke and Baggy Green, but Boland is a completely different monster in the grades being much higher and the composition (good amounts of the more expensive heavy rare earths) being much more favourable. Then you have the quality of mining jurisdiction. Not sure about where the Brazilian one is with metallurgy, or if it's on prime farmland making permits harder etc. Not easy to compare at all

I don't think it's irrelevant at all when it comes to attracting new investors.

If someone came across COBR from the news about gold and it being on the Share Risers page and considers buying in, and only looks at the displayed spread, the conclusion is:

"So mid is 2.05 and I could get an offer at 2.20, so I'd be underwater 7.3% straight away?" -> Probably won't invest

If someone decides to get a quote for buying (but taking mid for granted at 2.05):

"So mid is 2.05 and I could get an actual market quote to buy at 2.175, so I'd be underwater 6% straight away?" -> Probably won't invest

If someone had the ACTUAL market bid/ask, 2.02/2.175, so actual accurate market mid at 2.0975:

"So actual market mid is 2.0975 and I could get an actual market quote to buy at 2.175, so I'd be underwater 3.7%?" -> Much more likely to invest

It matters a lot, (a) to bring investors on board, and (b) not moving the SP mid with the actual market quotes (it should be 2.10 from 2.02/2.175 market, not 2.05) also is hard to understand in that it simply is inaccurate and can kill off buying dynamic.

Real bid/ask is 2.02/2.175, makes little sense that displayed mid given that the average of real market quotes is almost exactly 2.10. Pretty absurd to keep the streamed spread at 0.3 when actual quotes shown are roughly half that and with a reasonably higher mid.

I'd expect the next 2 years to still be fully Boland tbh, to get the permits and everything in place & developing and optimising the resource. Doesn't mean that by end of 2027 no HREO will have been extracted (and sold), I think they will be, but to really get it to production and profits that needs to be full-scale production, and personally I think that will be in 2028. The offtake agreement(s) are easy if you ask me, they could probably get that done now even, but little point if it's not yet that close to production at scale, and I'm happy that management aren't wasting time on that just for a flashy RNS - offtake agreement is a result of having the resource defined and ready for production, not the other way around. Then the only missing step I can think of from your list is that they need to figure out how to process the REE at scale, I'm definitely no ISR expert, but it doesn't just come out of the ground in the form you can sell it, so that is one step to figure out, processing/refining plant, but that could involve government grants given the focus in Australia on critical minerals.

So if you want my best guess, IOCG is more likely a 2028 focus (also because I think uranium could become a side story quest before it given the proximity to Boland, if there's some scale to the occurrences). But at the time if everything goes right we'll be invested in a company with several 100m£ market cap and several 10m£ profit per year, a company that at the time will be able to fund that IOCG exploration pipeline from profits, and explore also Tasmania which is prospective for a second paleo-channel REE resource. Things could go wrong along the way, as always, but it's an experienced management team that has overall been treating retail shareholders with respect over the past years (no raises at huge discounts, no waste of funds, no overhyped half-true statements to lure investors in for the wrong reasons) and that is heavily invested in the project themselves.

@Richy, warrant RNS would be like this one:

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/COBR/exercise-of-warrants-g05z9uusdsjio2u.html

Exercise of warrants creates additional shares, so hard to see the larger trades at the moment linked to those (and lack of RNS would also indicate it isn't the warrants). Agree that for them to be executed, bid would likely have to be a bit higher still. Btw, there's also an additional ~70 million warrants at 2.3p.

So overall if the SP rises to 3p by end of Oct (assuming all warrants and options would be executed that are at 2p, 2.3p, 3p), that would bring 5.4m£ into Cobra's bank account pretty much without any discount to the SP at the time (assuming warrants get executed close to when SP hits that level). If by end of year, they have those 5.4m£ in the bank + the bit of cash from the Barton deal (and the further optionality to turn some of the Barton shares to cash), that would make 2026 very exciting, close to 6m£ for infill and growth drilling at a time when there will very likely already be a decent maiden Boland MRE...drill, baby, drill.

Yeah, to be fair, it's time for a re-rate for all UK-listed REE stocks, they have been incredibly unloved compared to equivalents in Australia and Canada, I guess because there were only so few of them (COBR, MKA, RBW, Altona) and were completely under the radar while rare earths were at the bottom of price cycles?

RBW also up another 4% today. With COBR, well, let's see, that 2p level is psychological after a long time back on a 1p (or briefly even 0p) handle, so guess that slowed interest back down a bit with more likely wanting to add when (if?) they can below 2p again. But that said, imo that's really just a psychological level, as 18m market cap still feels very undervalued, if 2 years ago someone had asked you where the stock should trade with the progress in defining and de-risking Boland made (& up to 20m AUD of the market cap that are cash or shares from the sale of the Wudinna gold assets), no idea what you'd have said, but my answer would have been "Fair would be at least 5p".

There's still boxes to be ticked, no doubt, need the MRE (but Rupert did hint in the interview that it might well be a big big tonnage) and need definite proof that ISR also works out in the field (but the bench scale study was very encouraging), so the SP still needs to be at a discount to what the eventual resource will hopefully be, but taking something like Meteoric Resources as benchmark, it isn't unrealistic to say that market cap after resource definition could be 150-250m£ or even more, so somehow it'd be very odd if we dip back below 2p for any longer period of time.

That said it all makes sense, the news have been very encouraging and it seems the near-term timeline is a bit clearer. And then we have the general rare earths ex-China story, interesting that e.g. MKA also rose 15% today, so could be broader focus on REE

Article from yesterday: https://www.asiafinancial.com/users-of-rare-earth-magnets-now-paying-top-prices-for-supplies

Thanks, so roughly in line with what I had in mind, nice. Gotta say it's surprising to me to see several ~20k£ trades today in the trades list, I don't think that usually with COBR it works to get a quote in that size on one ticket, so would suggest it's someone working through a broker rather than "just" online/app, suggesting HNW individual might be jumping on board if those trades were all by the same person.

Anyone kept track of warrants and director options outstanding?

I think only 15 million director options unless I missed something, and in terms of warrants, just under 100 million at 2p (so if they get triggered here, that's another 2m£ cash into the company coffers), and 44.5 million at 3p (from the Oct 2022 raise, expiring Oct 2025)?

Would be able to sell 5000£ worth at 1.802. Makes you question why they keep mid at 1.80 if bid is through the mid

Unlikely, but makes sense that there's buying interest given

(a) funding situation is clarified and very very likely no raise coming up in the near future

(b) Rupert mentioning in the Stockbox interview that the drilling results will be due within the next week

(c) 600 re-analysis samples also expected to be a RNS over the next 4-8 weeks if I understood the interview correctly

To be fair, using that gold resource strategically for funding Boland was always the likely path imo, ever since the FULL focus was on Boland. I strongly believe that uranium could become a bigger focus in addition given the proximity of that uranium resource next to Boland and I wouldn't be fully shocked for instance if the re-analysis of those samples from the newly acquired tenements that are in the same paleo-channel show signs of uranium too. That is the new potential synergy, REE and uranium (unless suddenly there's a gold occurrence around Boland too), given the full focus on Boland.

But that doesn't mean Cobra isn't in gold anymore. Both Rupert and David Clarke are ambitious about it clearly, and Rupert had said in the past too in interviews that they will want to come back to the IOCG prospects when there's a revenue stream. So once Boland is on board, I doubt that's the end of the road for Cobra, then it'll be either making the most of uranium that pops up along the way, or getting onto those IOCG targets, or exploring on the Tasmanian tenement, or...all three