Member Info for ShipwreckSheep

@BingleyBullet, if it's gonna be a 15-bagger, the strategy should more likely be "buy in, increase position, increase position more", no?

@PaulFG, but we weren't "actively" involved in the Gold market for close to 3 years, right? Since all the work focused on Boland, that started in Q4 2022.

And Cobra is still involved in the Gold market, in an ideal world these proceeds help with:

1) Getting Boland to production (or at least close to it) without all too much dilution from raises - assuming that they can and will just turn the shares they are granted to cash, it's 1-3 years of the budget that Cobra had operated with during the past years.

2) Once Boland is at production stage, surely the focus will be on the IOCG prospects that Cobra still has from back before REE focus shifted into place, so there are still enough possibilities to be "actively" involved in the gold market down the road, at a much bigger scale potentially than Clarke and Baggy Green and the likes would have been if any of the IOCG prospects comes to fruition, as these 279k ounces and whatever more there is around were always only gonna be lower-grade shallow open pit mining.

For now the focus needs to be (and seems to be! from this RNS that's clear) on getting Boland to production as soon as possible. That could mean still 2.5y or so to be fully there, but that exploration/development could be almost fully funded by this deal - no complaints from my side at least.

@English_Parisien, no, Rupert has mentioned that many times, that the big focus are the heavy rare earths rather than Nd and Pr. So nothing new on that front I'd think. But it's nice, rock-based REE resources are all focused on NdPr, so being able to position themselves with a focus on terbium and dysprosium instead is a plus.

I mean, looking at the deal, it's 5.5m AUD pretty much straight away (by "Final Completion") either in cash, or in directly monetizable shares. so that's 2.62m£ straight away, with 4.53m£ in addition in future potentially paid proceeds, so if we use the market cap of around 13m£ by end of last week, that's a minimum(!) of 20% of current market cap that we got in cash/shares for the gold assets, and the maximum is 2.62+4.53 = 7.15m£, which would be 55% of the current market cap.

You really think the gold assets (most of those 279k ounces were still only indicated/inferred) were worth 55% of the value of Cobra? Or even 20%? It's an amazing deal as far as i'm concerned

Both have gotten a great deal. It's nice synergies to get cash & equities (that can be turned into cash when the company decides to do so) to advance Boland in a minimally dilutive way while selling gold assets that realistically would have just sat there for the next 2-3 years without any progress given that Boland is the real prize of those 2. Very good move imo for Cobra, while Barton also got a great deal in the sense that they are the company of the 2 which has the capacity to move such a resource to production in the nearer term. Cobra has its hands full with Boland. And that's a good thing, as it's because Boland is likely a monster resource.

Don't get me wrong, I still think Boland looks like an amazing project.

But NOW is the time when eyes are on REE, when countries (and most of all the US, the biggest global economy with the most money to throw at projects) are desperate to break the China dominance, when a material part of Trump's strategy in steering Ukraine/Russia deal is to get a foot in the door to the critical metals in those countries. Some companies put themselves in the position to say "Hey coach, put me on the pitch, I'm ready to play in this match" (sizeable MRE, economic scoping study, fast project progression to production), other companies are choosing to focus on details without having defined these project cornerstones and say "Sorry coach, can't play yet, I'm deciding whether to wear the red wristband for training or the black one"

That's the sad part..If you look at the Victory Metals project:

https://www.victorymetalsaustralia.com/north-stanmore-hree-project/

They prioritised defining a big resource, they released an economic scoping study, they secured US agency project financing and their SP has been doing very well - even though the TREO is much smaller than Boland, and even though very likely resource size is also smaller than Boland.

It's one thing to focus on prioritising metallurgy and all of that for a start to at least have a good idea whether a project is viable, but once that looks likely, the focus needs to be on corporate finance, on attracting the right partners as quickly as possible (project finance, JV, etc) and on talking profitability, getting momentum into the SP, to be able to dilute as little as possible when additional funds are needed.

This Victory Metals resource was discovered in July 2022, that's around the same time focus shifted to Boland for Cobra. But Victory played offense straight away with RNS titled "HIGH VALUE CRITICAL RARE EARTH ELEMENT DISCOVERY", no "potentially", no "could maybe shape up to be", but over the same timeframe as Cobra since the initial discovery from assays, (a) have released an MRE of close to 300 Mt (we don't have an MRE at all yet for Boland close to 3 years after it was first talked about), (b) have released an economic scoping study (we have no clue what the NPV of Boland could be), & (c) as a consequence of the other 2 points have attracted project finance backing by US agency in 9-digit $ value. On the back of it more than doubled in SP since their listing in 2021.

None of these 3 steps have been completed by Cobra in the same timeframe. And the SP - understandably - shows that. This COULD have been Cobra. The project economics of Boland are very likely better. So this SHOULD have been Cobra. It's been quite clear that a shift away from China on REE will happen, with how dominant China is in that field and they weaponise their REE with export curbs when geopolitics get spicy (like also already in 2010). So there needs to be much bigger urgency to get these steps done, quickly, it's heart-breaking that Cobra had the discoveries actually before Victory Metals did and yet aren't positioned to have the first-mover advantage when it comes to viable ionic clay REE resources outside of China. It's really hard to understand and it hasn't been addressed by the company why there isn't more urgency to prove this all up and get to production very quickly - and this word "potential" or "potentially" needs to be dropped out of the vocabulary for RNS, they very clearly actually believe that they have one of the best economic REE resources worldwide (outside of China at least), and it's time to play offense, it's time to focus on this actually being a business and not an NPO mining project.

DartFrog,

Boland = REE, ISR

The gold resource isn't Boland, that's Clarke, Baggy Green, White Tank and Barns, so areas of Wudinna that do have REE as well (the ones that form part of the existing REE MRE), but those are lower grade and weren't considered ISR for.

Boland is closer to the uranium footprints, in the paleochannel.

So overall 2 different resources, which is nice, as the gold resource can be monetized (or even sold) separately, without diverting attention away from Boland REE.

I share your general view Richy, but I'd argue that many do get the general story. Boland looks like a GREAT resource, I have very little doubt about that, and the steps they took have done a lot of derisking already.

But even so I can't blame anybody for not (yet?) buying in when an economic scoping study is 2 years later than first planned, when there has been 2 years of focus on a resource without an MRE. It's hard to understand, it really is, with all the initial re-analysis results also for this deposit and the drilling campaigns, even if they had "just" released a maiden MRE for Boland with a smaller indicated/inferred tonnage and a big exploration target and then updated the MRE after growth/infill drilling to bring the exploration target into the MRE, etc, that'd have allowed for any excitement to build on the back of what can only be called extremely encouraging updates about the project fundamentals (grade, recoverability, composition).

Without any MRE, if one wants to be cynical, the question is "what's the point". I wouldn't buy in now either - I'm not selling, because I believe in the project and that it'll come good, but I bought in mostly in 2021 and 2022 when they released a work plan and ticked off item by item by item, some maybe a month later than planned, but very close. That's not the case anymore, what to make of any of these drilling updates? Yes, we know there's high-grade zones that are narrow and that this is nice. Yes, we know that it looks encouraging to be able to use ISR for extraction and that the Ph needed is looking good for economics. Yes, we know also that production would be in the lowest quartile and competitive with Chinese producers. Yes, we know about the geopolitics and that China/Taiwan escalation could send REE prices to the sky. We know all the details about future production. We just don't know the 2 massive essentials: What do we have (in terms of size AND in terms of $)? And when will it be mined? And that's the huge problem. The latter even more, because if there's 2 years of delay for a scoping study (and a maiden MRE), sadly it doesn't give huge confidence in the ability to deliver the project in a timely manner. And it matters, I don't mind dilution in a junior miner, it's normal, but 2 years ago it was 515m shares, it's 878m now, 70% more. If that's at the cost of being 2 years closer to production, all good. If the scoping study was planned for end of 2023 and it's now end of 2025, that's been 70% dilution without getting closer to production over that time, far less good. Imo these things drive the SP, it's not that people don't believe in the project.

Actually also in another presentation in May 2024, planned MRE in Oct/Nov 2024, planned economic scoping study in Nov/Dec 2024, page 20: https://storage.googleapis.com/leaf-prod/uploads/company_profile/corporate_page/234/section_attachment/57f77412-1199-4fa6-a0c2-a6fc9bca40a6.pdf

Will we get another presentation this May that says "MRE in Q3/4 and Scoping Study in Q4", to make it 3 years in a row?

Okay, I go chill again and focus on the positive fundamental progress that has been made and the fact that it looks very very encouraging. But it must be allowed to vent about this, and it really is time to deliver that MRE and Scoping Study and not kick it down the road a 3rd consecutive year.

I think we really need a comprehensive update from Cobra and clear communication of timeline for delivering the Boland project. It's been the main focus of the company since the maiden drilling of Boland that has been announced in March 2023 and we have no maiden MRE, we have no timeline when exactly the plan is to have a scoping study, PFS, FS, etc.

There has been great progress with the project fundamentals (Grade, Scale, Metallurgy/ISR-suitability), but what is needed are tangibles, and that's the MRE and far more so, the scoping study. If you look at this update presentation from May 2023, page 21, that was an encouraging plan for investors in my opinion: https://storage.googleapis.com/leaf-prod/uploads/company_profile/corporate_page/234/section_attachment/d5c72479-0a46-4742-aa7b-475eb345e247.pdf

Updated Gold MRE and maiden REE MRE was delivered in January 2023, with an increased MRE planned for Q2/Q3 2023 at the time, and a scoping study in Q4 2023. Then we had a full 2024 and first quarter of 2025 without any MRE, without any scoping study, without a clear presentation of when these tangible updates should be produced, as most know, I hold close to 3% of the company - and will continue to do so - but frankly in 2023 when I saw that presentation my thinking was "Okay great, MRE updates every 6 months, scoping study by end of 2023, PFS in 2024, FS in 2025, then production", so at the time production in 3-4 years. Now I'm sitting here thinking "When MRE update? When scoping study? God knows" and no clearly communicated planned timeline at all.

I'm very happy with the fundamentals of Boland and generally the fieldwork that the company is doing, and even the strategic decisions (focus on REE and Boland, picking up new tenements for future potential, disposal of the copper project, etc), but it is time for RC to talk about a concrete planned timeline for the tangibles (maiden MRE, MRE updates, scoping study, PFS, DFS) and to deliver that plan this time, without more can kicks down the road, otherwise there can be no surprise that the SP hasn't changed much, because if production is always "in 3-4 years", there'd never be production.

Let's keep things accurate please Cassandra, it's not "been 3p, and is this year at most 0.015p", it's "been 3p, and is this year at most 1.5p", that the same direction compared to 2021, but not close to as extreme as you made it sound and in line with the rare earth commodity price cycle.

Which it should not be in my opinion given how much progress there has been made since 2021 when Boland wasn't even yet on the cards. But that just means that - for now - everybody who wants to accumulate a bigger stake in Cobra has the opportunity to do so at a market cap of 9 million £. It seems like many people on here are aligned in both their belief in the prospect of Boland as a rare earths province, and their trust in the management doing the right things (moving the project along in an economical fashion without wasting funds, directors invested in the share, etc), so it is still hard for me to understand why there aren't more who try to considerably increase their holding outside of periods with RNS too - why wait for a "good news" day when everybody else (including investors who are not even yet aware of Cobra but will be if/when the RNS hits that really drives home the size of this) will also want to buy and you'll only get small amounts at a price higher than now?

I'm not sure I agree with you there Jollifant.

At the low this year, SP was at 0.825 close, in August. Going to 1.45 in October and pretty much staying in that 1.2-1.4 range for most of the time since. Tbh also today I feel the 1.10 close price is a bit harsh and it could/should have stayed at 1.15 or at most gone to 1.125, but it's not a secret that it needs very little buying to get back to that 1.2-1.4 range.

So what makes you say that only MRE moves the needle for the SP? Going from that 0.825 to 1.45 was a 75% SP rise, so I wouldn't say that none of the RNS mattered. And even at that harsh close price today, we're still over 30% higher than in August (yes, rightly so, due to great news flow!), and...fully funded.

And while discount was bigger than in previous raises when they did it very close to previous close prices or even at a premium once, it wasn't a 15% discount, it was an 11.5% discount vs previous close (1 - 1.15/1.3), which is very reasonable compared to many many other raises in junior mining space. As for the amount raised, well, Rupert and co usually are very good at getting a lot out of their budget and focusing on the right things rather than just wasting money on drills without having a good understanding first - but they also can't operate without a budget. If we want Boland to be mined and make us nice returns (and who knows, pay dividends to us down the line!?), we gotta be okay with the dilution cost that is needed to get the resource to be defined & developed to become a producer.

"Why not raise after the short term news flow?"

It's what they did though, raising after good news flow. 2 months ago SP was at 1, on great news flow (that I am excited about at least, and I think most who are invested here as well) it went to 1.40 on 2 occasions, drifted a bit lower, so it was time to get funding done. They didn't do it when SP was 0.8, or when it was 1, but when it had had a healthy rise and before any considerable drift.

It's always easy to say "Why didn't you do a raise at the top of SP movement?" or "Why didn't you wait, the news would have made SP rally a lot?".

But counter question for you: The raise was at a small enough discount and a big enough amount to be confident they are fully funded, and it was stated the raise was already completed. So you think without the raise that specific bench scale update would have made SP rally a lot? If that's true, then surely everybody who was gonna buy on the back of those results should have bought a million times over, getting a piece of the tasty pie at a lower price.

Sometimes I really don't understand people with this share.

They've raised a decent amount at relatively small discount, and yes, the infill and expansion drilling starts a few weeks later than maybe expected, but they are fully funded basically until the scoping study now, and they've accomplished quite a lot with the funds raised in the previous one, I don't think anybody can say Cobra has not been carefully deploying their budget without wasting money on any unnecessary items.

And still there's comments like:

- "Why did they raise now?"...well, when do you want them to raise? Thank God they raised funds when SP was reasonably high, 15% higher than previous raise, it's not bad for a junior mining company, is it? It's a clear case of grass always greener on the other side, as in late 2022 everybody (including me) was complaining why they didn't raise much earlier when they could have added funding at a much higher level and rather let the SP drift and then raised.

- "Why did they raise so much?"...again, why not? It's much nicer to be invested in a company where you know there is no raise coming in the next 12 months quite likely now, than one where you always need to consider 'could there be a raise next month? should i really buy now?'

- "Appalling, retail investors weren't able to participate in the raise"....well, true, but that matters much less when the discount price for the raise is small. And almost always you can buy at the raise price in open market on the same day or some days after anyway. Where's everybody who complained that they weren't able to participate in the raise? Here you can buy at lower levels than the raise currently, and at most it's "I added a few".

It's a weird dynamic, it's been good buying driving the SP to YTD high, at a time when everybody thought "yeah, it's been long since the last raise, they'll soon need to add to fund the work program for 2025, but news flow is exciting and expected news flow is exciting too, so I'll buy more now anyway".

Now the situation is "they will not need any funds in the next 9-12 months, the 2025 work program is fully funded, news flow has been exciting and expected news flow is exciting too, but I rather sit on my hands"?

While I don't fully disagree with your comments, I think there isn't anything factually incorrect: On the cash being sufficient for the planned exploration activities, well, that amount does indeed cover the drilling campaign according to the RNS - it was always likely that there will be new funds needed for the additional work program, and it's been pointed out repeatedly by Rupert in interviews that they focus on proving/optimising the metallurgy first, as that is where most REE project stumble. And metallurgical updates have been great.

The funds have also been raised at no massive discount, and oversubscribed, with support of existing big shareholders again, which is nice to see - and a very different vibe compared to AIM where big shareholders often seem to push for much bigger discounts to fill their boots.

As for 'drilling imminent', Rupert did address that in one recent interview that it's middle of the harvest season for farmers in the region and that they have good relationships with them and probably will wait a few weeks. No problems there imo, better than antagonising the most important stakeholders.

That said, the delay again is annoying and there I am with you - MRE (and I think even the scoping study) was pencilled in for end of this year in previous presentations, and I'd have thought that Q1 2025 would be alright given that they - quite successfully - focused on the bench scale study for longer, but July for an MRE seems still very far.

"I've wondered a few times whether someone is short on this stock, regular sells after every RNS"

I don't think there's much selling of Cobra going on at all, where do you see it? 2 or 3 sells a day maybe, I mean that's pretty normal, it's a small cap share still, and we know there's a huge number of shares in sticky hands, but of course most free float outside of that is retail investors. And then of course there's some sells at times: Someone needs money for a flat deposit? Sell some holding. Someone just prefers a different share to invest in for the time being? Sell some holding.

The real question, which I've also asked before, is why there is little to no buying outside of RNS days. Because that's the only reason that even smaller sells (that are the natural course of business because there'll always be people who need some of their money for other purposes) move the SP. There's enough people writing on this board daily who seem to agree that at a market cap of 8.5m£ Cobra is extremely undervalued. Yet none of them is buying much more? None of them building a bigger stake? None of them telling their friends and families that they have high conviction that this company is very undervalued and bringing more investors on board? These are the real puzzling questions: Why only buying on RNS days? Because if you think the share is undervalued, non-RNS days are the much better days to buy shares, build the stake slowly, when not many others are trying to buy at the same time.

Okay, I see in previous posts you talked about 100s of millions of eventual MRE for Boland, which seems plausible. Still better to clarify imo, with RNS yesterday I'm sure potential new investors are browsing the board and them reading "gives an idea of what cobras could look like" and "13 Mt resource" in the post on top of the page would be suboptimal, as by the looks of all the information we have, it's shaping up to be a far far bigger resource

Nightye1, I assume with "it gives an idea of what cobras could look like", you only mean in terms of % of annual production / total resource? Cause if you mean in terms of resource size...definitely not. Clarke and Baggy Green have an MRE 4x that tonnage of Altona, and Boland is a way way way different animal than Clarke and Baggy Green without the shadow of a doubt. Apologies if you had clarified what you mean in a previous post, I just don't want others to read the post, see "ah, 13 Mt resource" & "gives an idea of what cobras could look like" and put those 2 together.

THE best indication of how exciting Boland is imo is the fact that at the threshold of 750k ounces of gold MRE, the original parties of the Wudinna agreement would be issues 7% in additional shares in Cobra, if I remember the numbers correctly (but in any case something close to it) - so David Clarke would get a decent amount of additional shares if they were focusing on the gold exploration part of the program first.

Yet the case for REE mining at Boland is so compelling that he seems entirely fine with focusing fully on REE for now, in fact from how excited he sounded about it over the past year, I even believe he is one of the driving forces behind that re-focus. That says a lot, between the lines anyway. Many other directors would choose to push for gold exploration, get to those 750k ounces, collect their free shares, and sell them opportunistically. David Clarke has never sold a single share in Cobra from what I know, doesn't get hung up on the additional shares he'd get for free if they focused on gold exploration instead, and buys additional ones in the open market when it's not a restrictive period (and it's not the first time either).