Member Info for Shedulike

Interesting that they're putting a positive spin on events. Unfortunately, the now resigned Director of ARSO had eventually issued the permits and the incumbent Minister is the one who withdrew them. Even though the ex Director presided over our agony for all these years it's beyond irony that when he eventually does the right thing for Ascent he's made to fall on his sword. I still believe that the very public escalation of events is our only hope though high risk.

Thing is we've been hearing 'Mm's want your shares', 'Just a tree shake', 'grow a pair' etc etc all the way down from £1 and to say the least it's wearing thin. Still, one bit of good news and I strongly believe we'll be flying again and for once whoever happens to have trotted out the holders mantras will for the first time in two years be proved right. I'm afraid until then the bragging rights are with the less popular contributors here and we've got no choice but to accept that for now.

I know it sounds counter-intuitive as we're in the stickiest situation since Sticky t...... you know the rest, but I really do believe to break the deadlock the crisis had to get worse before it could get better. The good news is we've achieved the getting worse bit with aplomb, again.

I usually much prefer Donald Leggatt's more journalistic interviewing style over much of the other promotional online media but I did think probing on possible Russian influence was very reckless in the last interview. I suspect if that stuff is monitored by the Slovenian authorities it can't have helped, CH certainly didn't look very happy about it.

..... is that sometimes things need to get worse before they get better. No doubt we are getting well and truly stiffed by some dark forces and this apparent diplomatic shambles is blatantly orchestrated. After years of jumping through hoops we finally get the permits and suddenly we're accused of inappropriate pressure, I have an image of Sophie Honey administering her most ruthless Chinese burn on Joško Knez.

I don't like to talk about my extensive charridee work...

Hi Pommy am I missing a very subtle joke? Probably being too suspicious you know what these boards are like so no I'm near Bristol - I did live in Sheffield as a student though so near Worksop.

Don't worry Keef most of us FRR holders are inexperienced about SP rises!! :) Any partnership with a super major is obviously going to have a positive effect but if the announcement comes with flesh on the bones detailing a massive well programme, eliminating any possibility of dilutive funding from our side I'd guess we're looking at suspension and re-rate.

Okay if that's what DM meant I read it wrong - apologies. Though if it was about timeframes he did say something like 'sooner rather than later', but yes that is vague. My best guess though is that the BHGE deal is interdependent with the second major coming on board and the deal is already done. I admit I can't even make a fist of pretending what the market churn is all about but I assume some sort of holdings housekeeping is taking place before the announcement. US holiday tomorrow but let's hope sometime next week.

"No real indication for the second major' - DM you must have missed the analysis of Zaza's comments prior to the BHGE announcement which all pointed towards a second major. Oh and I almost forgot he then RNS'd the existence of a second major on 31st Oct.

Led - just reading that back as published it reads as if my entire post was a rebuttal of your post which wasn't intended. I totally respect and understand your opinion it's just that your thoughts on negative sentiment set my fingers off on the keyboard!! GLA let's hope we get some good news soon and the minutiae of every twist and turn is forgotten in the celebrations.

LedZep I don't think it's fair to suggest that all negative posting has a cynical motive behind it (LTH's selling out and looking for a better entry point - really?). I feel pretty down on SOU at the minute but having overs the years scrutinised every available piece of information I'm sticking with it for this last campaign and haven't sold a bean. To list all my grievances would be tedious but to prove my initial point here's my top twenty............. only joking but when you consider the enormity of the first drill I think many souls (more pragmatic than myself are de-risking) and there's little or no new money for the reasons discussed before (TE-9 in isolation being a red or black play on the SP). Failure at TE-9 will have a catastrophic effect on confidence in the seismic - yes I know TE-10 and 11 are targetting different structures but sentiment won't take that into account. I've long wondered if the GSA is being held to counter the panic in the event of a dry hole or uncertain result at TE-9. It seems the TP has split this board in a pretty ugly way which is a shame but when you consider that JP and Marco bought after Badile to restore confidence you can hardly blame certain holders for blaming the sales for the current state of zero market excitement in TE-9. I sense that holders are starting to gather in two camps - the diehard believers in JP versus the cynics. I have always felt myself to be somewhere in the middle, not a fan of the style (Gherkin etc) but even having never met him I instictively and genuinely trust his integrity, should he be thinking about selling into the GSA though........

I don't think it can be Monday (assuming Exxon) - 11th Nov is a Fed holiday which being a Sunday will be implemented on Mon 12th, though I suppose if FRR declare on the 12th there's no US trading before their first chance to issue a public statement. Oh I don't know just so sick of all the speculation, guesswork, bolloxology plus listening to absolute loonies who having their financial interests seemingly aligned with yours which is perhaps the most unsettling thing of all in this saga!! If this does come off blimey it will have been a leap of faith

I do think as much noise should be made from shareholders that any equity raise should have nothing to do with Primary Bid. With Carver's interests in both it would stink to high heaven and be entirely unnecessary. Given the unique circumstances the offer should be to current shareholders (on a declared date) so the discount is only available to the long suffering.

Oh no! just when we were on the cusp of great things a Tory Minister turns up, let's just pray they get him out of there before he destabilises the entire region!

Must admit I was hoping that the SP might deliver 'something for the weekend' this afternoon. Given that there are always leaks I'm wondering when the poor SP will stop causing mild discomfort and bring on a severe case of blind panic?

Obone - I think it's setting out the parameters of a possible raise because expressing the desired value as a percentage of the current share capital will range hugely depending on the offer price. If we go even deeper into the doldrums they don't want to make it impossible to raise a meaningful amount of money should a discount to the SP turn out to be 0.1 heaven forbid! More unlikely.... should the SP perform well it appears that they wouldn't want to be hamstrung into not raising more funds given the opportunity. You might have guessed I'm not entirely certain, this stuff is not my forte and probably someone else out there could be more explicit. I think I'll approach the company for some more clarity as just writing this has raised more questions in my mind than answers!!

Obone I think 1a and 1b are two elements of the same vote (the ordinary resolution), you can't vote for one without the other.

I have a feeling that if it is Exxon then the releases will come simultaneously. I know BHGE hardly shouted it from the rooftops but I guess they're waiting for the inevitable third player to come in so they can announce the complete picture. With the geopolitical significance, it would be a big announcement for Exxon too and looking at their announcements they tend to come between 8-11am US Eastern Time. That's +5 GMT from our point of view so I'm finding myself checking at 1pm. It's Veterans Day on 11th so the Federal holiday is observed on Mon 12th, could it be Tuesday then or even today..?

As far as the SP goes it's depressing but ridiculously simple. With the way this market thinks short term you can put to one side what we have in the bag (not helped by no GSA), the safety net of two more drills, Sidi Moktar (okay maybe not Sidi Moktar), even forget the negatives - sentiment from 2 recent failures, reality check of the Deep Dive and JP's TP and just concentrate on this drill. I'm convinced that the market thinking equates to success at TE-9 we go up / failure we go down and with a decent COS in O&G terms but less than even money to a gambler it's just not a punt worth taking. We can argue the subtleties of the bigger picture but I think that's where we are - which is actually quite incredible after such a long journey.