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Why do they keep trotting out the same rubbish in RNS's and think the market is actually going to believe it?

$225m of 2021 bookings, again not mentioning the fact that $150m of which relate to Verisilicon & CPP...

They seem obsessed with highlighting the fact they have exceeded IPO projections, but how are they going to come close to delivering YoY growth in 2022?

Q4 run rate is around $100m for 2022, are they going to report a >50% drop vs 2021 bookings this time next year? Or are they going to move the goalposts & strip out the CCP & Verisilicon bookings going forwards?

Still nothing on expected cash received from CPP as per the IPO prospectus & nothing on H2 cash burn / their own contribution to the partnership.

I await the final results with interest.

It opened at 68p but you could only sell a handful of shares as shown by the lack of trades! There have been some huge sells this morning;

493219 @ 20p
345991 @ 17p
160222 @ 20p

there have also been a few good trades in the 23p area of 100 / 250k, impossible to know if they're buys or sells though, likely a mix.

The 345k sell at 17p tells will either be one of the worst trades of all time or making the best of a bad situation and escaping with £58k from an investment valued at £256k as of last night. Eye watering. Even bigger loss with the 493219!

Hopefully PI's can make some money trading the volatility, however I couldn't sleep easy at night with an investment here.

"The proposed structure of the financing is a loan note (repayable at 1.25 times the loan note value) together with warrant coverage (12.7% of the issued share capital for the first tranche of £6.35 million and 5% of the issued share capital for the second tranche) with an exercise price of the nominal value of 10p."

Doesn't give a split on the tranche values, but that's 17.7% of share capital, currently 164.8m shares, so actually more like 29.2m shares exercisable at 10p...

You can still buy below mid price at the moment, suggests this has further to fall. Crazy drops that are overdone vs the news are opportunities, companies that issue 20m warrants at 10p a share when the share price closed the previous day at 75p are much more dangerous.. I couldn't believe it opened in the mid 60's and there were some large buyers around 48p - utterly mad!

Agree this looks highly likely... 68% of shares are owned by the top 8 holders, add in the fact that ASC will be held by many thousands of small investors & you have to wonder where supply will come from when funds have to buy shares upon admittance to the main market / FTSE 250 at the beginning of March... it's a very smart move IMO.

Very interesting video indeed, these guys certainly appear to have pedigree! I've just bought back in after trading the initial spike. I don't expect the share price to drift back much further than it already has due to the 504p valuation paid by the new investors, previous announcements didn't quote a valuation & I suspect the mention of a $10-15m fundraise likely scared off most holders due to the threat of dilution. That's clearly not an issue any more.

Valuation wise, $100m post finance round (£74.6m @ 1.33 USD / GBP) is actually comparable to another LSE listed company that merged with a AI financial services company last year; Insig AI (INSG).

It has minimal revenues & just over £2m of cash at last results, and even after a significant fall is valued at £46m. It listed via a merger with Catena Group & raised capital in April 2021 at a market cap of £66.4m, remarkably similar to the level at which Tintra are looking to raise...

So 504p / £74.6m looks fair to me, and with just 14.8m shares in issue post funding round (assuming they raise the full $10m), further significant value accretion could easily occur (i.e. the $250m warrant hurdle would require a share price of ~£12.70...

Not even close to where they would close the short IMO. AVCT was valued at 20p / £40m market cap before they entered the Covid game in April 2020, they still sit some 300%+ above this level with very little genuine progress to show for it.

What are actual sales numbers for their now suspended test? I suspect the share price will be back at 20/30p levels this time next year, by the time they've fixed their test a new variant will be on the scene, rinse repeat until the end of the pandemic. AS now has the perfect excuse for a lack of future sales...

Can't understand why they didn't RNS that technical transfer to Avacta was completed in mid December?! The only thing this suggests is that there were significant doubts about the ability of the Avacta test in mid December which meant it was effectively on hold pending further testing... however from the ABDX side, they had completed their job so they should be updating the market. Even more bizarre given the directors invested £800k in early December!

https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/ideas/2022/01/06/making-waves/

House broker finnCap plans to relaunch forecasts once the other contracts in the near-term pipeline close, but I maintain the view that SRT could be making annualised revenue of £50m in calendar 2022 through a combination of transceiver sales (annual revenue of around £8.4m) and MDA systems contracts. Based on a gross margin of 40 per cent, and factoring in annual fixed overheads of £8m, the ramp up in revenue could deliver annual pre-tax profits north of £10m, a hefty sum for a £79m market capitalisation company."

Nice volume uptick in the final hour pushing the ask back towards 50p. The '*************' article is so basic and isn't even negative, just taking a believe it when it happens stance... their favourite trick is to compare market cap to historical financials, even though it should reflect the net present value of future cash flows! It's bang your head against the wall type stuff.

Blackrock TR1 - they’ve sold ~10m shares & crossed the threshold yesterday, cutting their losses at 50% down? I await the next update here with intrigue, particularly the full year accounts…

Certainly is looking different swest42, and different in a very good way! I've said it before but the major technical change in the last 6 months has been the huge increase in traded share volume. Total volume by year since IRR IPO'd on 12/02/2015;

2015: 3.6m
2016: 208m
2017:152m
2018: 38m
2019: 33m
2020: 148m
2021: 487m

H2 2021 volume was 325m shares... this is not far off the total traded in the 4 years from 2017 to 2020. And nearly 10x 2018 & 2019...

Such an increase in turnover provides stale bulls with a chance to sell, DGR are one of them having been involved since day 1 of the IPO when they owned 62.2m shares.

Eventually in share with an investment case as strong as ALL has, buyers outweigh sellers and the price has to rise, the more volume we have the faster this will happen - fingers crossed we are now getting near to that point!

Hahaha, that’ll teach me for trying to post sensible analysis. The figures were taken from the presentation they released this morning, but I’ll not waste any more time here as you clearly know everything ;)

“whereas a company with nearly $300m FCF valued at nearly free cash flow market cap……… one wonders where the logic lies”

It seems illogical because you don’t understand how to value a company! SAVE now has $884m / £654m debt, add that to the fully diluted market cap based on 1.4b shares in issue (£320m at 22.75p) and the enterprise value is £960m. This is the figure that matters.

Now for the comparison to free cash flow… the key chart is on P12 of the presentation;

https://wp-savannah-2020.s3.eu-west-2.amazonaws.com/media/2021/12/Restoration-to-AIM-and-major-acquisition-presentation-December-2021.pdf

“2P case asset level post debt service free cashflow”

Using the base case assumption, true FCF remains below $50m per annum until FY26, it is only from FY26-30 that significant cash is generated. $80 gives FCF of around $80m per annum from FY22-26.

However, any oil price upside needs to be offset against the risk of interest rate increases hiking their debt servicing costs. For example LIBOR +7% on the new ‘up to’ $400m loan with current inflation leaves them open to significant risk.

So to summarise, the current valuation makes some sense because;

- near term (4 year) real FCF is nowhere near $300m per annum, base case puts it at less than $50m.

- the enterprise value of SAVE is around £960m

Quite a difference to thinking the company is valued at 1 years FCF!

It’s a very interesting deal but as always the devil is in the detail.

Very poor that they've missed the TT deadline set just a few weeks ago...

To buy 725k shares when you previously only held 250k is a big statement of intent, I've added to my holding off the back of it - one of the most notable director buys we've seen on AIM for some time.

Surely the technical transfer RNS will land tomorrow as promised earlier this month? Suspect we'll see some FOMO later + inflows from GDR profit takers. IMO we should see 50p+ on any positive communication and with directors buying £800k of shares in the placing you'd think everything was looking pretty good?!

Personally I don’t think discounts of this level should be legal unless all shareholders can participate at the placing price & double their existing holding. What’s the point of a stock market quotation otherwise?! Sorry for all holders, this is a disgrace.

Daprophet, not sure why you can't do your own research? It's all out there.

The below is from the ABDX placing RNS on 1st December;

"The Company has made recent progress in relation to two projects involving scale-up and technical transfer to manufacture. Avacta plc's AffiDX® SARS-CoV-2 antigen lateral flow test is being validated to allow commercial product to be manufactured and released by Abingdon Health. Avacta have indicated that they may require the Company to produce between one and two million tests per month. The transfer process, which involves scale-up of processes and manufacture of three production-scale manufacturing runs, is progressing well and due for completion in this calendar year. A significant order for post-technical transfer production has been received from Avacta."

Avacta only have 1 LFT, the fact it's now been cleared for home use as well as professional doesn't change anything re. manufacture. Abingdon will make millions per month and supply to AVCT, where they sell them doesn't matter.

As for the role of Medusa, this was RNS'd by AVCT way back on 20th May 2020;

"The Group has agreed an exclusive distribution agreement with Medusa19 for the supply of the COVID-19 rapid test direct to consumers globally, subject to the necessary regulatory approvals. Medusa19 has been established by Richard Hughes and Mahmud Kamani, both founder shareholders of Boohoo.com and shareholders of Avacta1, to build a global consumer self-testing business. Medusa19's initial focus will be on COVID-19 home testing and it is currently investing in global e-commerce, logistics and customer support infrastructure in preparation for Avacta's COVID-19 test launch. Medusa19 will also have non-exclusive rights to supply the tests to businesses for workforce testing. The distribution agreement includes a profit-sharing arrangement."

They are basically using Boohoo's distribution channels & consumer know-how to distribute the test. Medusa have nothing to do with manufacturing - why would they?

As for the reason ABDX didn't have a monumental rise today, firstly there was a placing overhang which meant short termers were taking easy profit, but more importantly, ABDX weren't referenced in the AVCT RNS, I would guess that many casual Avacta holders don't know ABDX are doing the manufacture or even that ABDX are listed & that their shares are much better value...

When technical transfer is RNS'd by both Abingdon & Avacta you'll see the major rise!

Look at the bid chasers! Just hold your bl*ody shares and the price will move way higher!!!