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Got some on the bell - has always been on the watchlist but that really looks like tremendous news. Look forward to watching today's presentation!

Suspect the share price will get a boost when Poly RNS that they are over 20%. The fact is SNG has £25m cash + ~£5m in pending R&D tax credits means the current enterprise value is around £20m... my guess is this will recover to between 50-70p over the coming weeks as Poly continue to built their stake. Had the secondary endpoints achieved statistical significance that's where I think it would be trading, they would have done so if the trial had been slightly larger...

It's not a deramp, it's balanced opinion based on investing on AIM & NASDAQ for the last few years. STX are massively undercapitalised for what they are attempting to do, that is a cold hard fact. Re. a debt facility, if they go down this route then it'll be death spiral financing via convertible loan notes, a vanilla placing is far better.

They'll have to raise a significant amount of money in the next 6 months to continue scaling up, considering their last raise was at 30p (a discount of 43.7% to the prevailing share price at the time of raising), it's hard to see where any short term upside resides? Get the placing out of the way & then assess the setup; how much did they raise? What are their forecasts re. breakeven? In the current small cap pharma bear market, it wouldn't surprise me in the slightest to see a sub 10p placing if they need another £25m...

@9billion, it’s this interview from last autumn, 12-18 mins in; https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=kgglu5aP6CI&feature=youtu.be

Also worth highlighting that not only are we in the Amati strategic metals fund, we are the largest holding; https://www.amatiglobal.com/fund/tb-amati-strategic-metals-fund/portfolio-information-2

That is a huge endorsement…

"The term of the Proposed Senior Debt Facility will be ten and a half years for Tranche A, and eight and a half years for Tranche B. The interest rate of the Proposed Senior Debt Facility will be at a rate of 3M USD LIBOR (or equivalent) + 1.80% for 95% guaranteed programs for Tranche A, and pre-project completion 3M USD LIBOR (or equivalent) + 4.75% and post-project completion 3M USD LIBOR (or equivalent) + 4.25% with a step up applicable from years 6 to 8 of 0.50% for Tranche B."

US 3m LIBOR has more than tripled since the November debt raise from 0.15% to 0.46% yesterday. 3M LIBOR rates hit over 2% in 2019 and given the interest rate expectations I suspect it'll reach that level again in the next 12 months.

The $200m Tranche B debt is going to be particularly onerous at 2% LIBOR +4.75%, that's $13.5m per annum in interest. Add another $5.5m for Tranche A and you've got $19m. Finally, you also have the $65m of loan notes at a fixed 11.75% interest rate adding another $7.6m. That's $26.6m in total!

The banks, Orion & La Mancha have a guaranteed income stream of nearly £20m per annum for 5-8 years and PI's think they care about the near term performance of the HZM equity?! The Nickel will retain it's value regardless of what happens to the HZM share share price, I suspect they'll tighten the screw as far as possible in the medium term if HZM doesn't execute to absolute perfection.

35p provided strong resistance on the way up as it was the topside resistance line on the uptrend trading range from 2019-2022. The big move in the last 10 days came because we broke this resistance (and boy did it take some buying to do so). 45-47p is the old all time high range and where we ran into resistance last week, I suspect it’ll take concrete news such as the PFS to break it.

Fundamentals have smashed technicals out of the park, Spodumene prices of $3500 vs $800 when Piedmont bought their stake… a significantly larger resource & that’s before new discoveries are added… historic technicals are based on past events, when fundamentals have a tectonic shift old technicals become somewhat irrelevant.

In reality technicals are far more useful on huge FTSE stocks that have a widely known story & are fully mature. Far more investors are going to buy ALL due to the fundamental value of Ewoyaa than because the chart had completed a cup & handle and apparently needs to ‘return to the cup base’…

Each to their own though, just as with good old Bakaraku who sold at 27p and was waiting for a retest of 20p!

@Levs, completely disagree on the cup & handle taking until year end to play out, I think you’re falling into the trap of focusing 100% on technicals and ignoring strengthening fundamentals. In reality they work in unison.

I think ALL will consolidate between 35-45p until the PFS in April, this will be the news that drives us through the previous all time high and into blue sky territory. Fundamentals will trump technicals, just as they have in the last couple of months. Things only change if the Spod price falls significantly, but there’s no sign of that at present & I highly doubt Lithium demand is about to plummet, regardless of what occurs in the Ukraine.

In terms of communications I think this is the worst series of RNS's I've seen in my time around the AIM. So they are reading the bulletin boards and responding to speculation now? Not sure where you stop if that's the strategy going forwards... but more to the point, why is the share price at 7.25p? It's nonsensical to pay more than 5p unless you want to be giving your money to those taking the placing who will either forward sell their shares for a profit or short down to 5p to hedge their buy.

Absolutely tragic that a company that had a market cap of £18 BEFORE Covid hit should now be scambling around for £5m capital at a pre money valuation of £9m...

18th October 2019;

"Avacta Group plc (AIM: AVCT), the developer of Affimer(R) biotherapeutics and research reagents, is pleased to announce a proposed Placing and Subscription (together the "Fundraising") to raise gross proceeds of up to GBP9 million through the issuance of up to 59,777,013 new ordinary shares ("Ordinary Shares") at a price of 15 pence per share."

"The Company today announced the proposed Fundraising comprising the Placing and the Subscription to raise up to GBP9 million for the Company (before expenses) to help to deliver the next key value inflection points, being:

-- the phase 1 clinical trial of AVA6000 pro-doxorubicin;
-- continuing to advance Affirmer immunotherapy pipeline with partners; and
-- delivering further commercial progress for therapeutics and diagnostics. "

Shares in issue post placing were 175m, giving a market cap of £26.25m.

Today the market cap sits at £157m and they have made minimal progress with AVA6000 / other areas of the business.

They have also shown their true colours as a diagnostic provider, spending nearly 2 years failing to deliver anything whatsoever in the battle against Covid, despite being fully capitalised to do so.

"what MC is realistic?"

I said this a few weeks back when the share price was testing 30p, the peer to benchmark against is Core Lithium, as quoted by Vince in the November / December presentations he did.

They are a year ahead of us in terms of development and located in Oz, on the flipside their current resource size is smaller at ~15Mt and their IRR is nothing like the 194% we have. Their current market cap is A$1.39b, having risen another 4.5% overnight. That equates to £735m vs the £237m that we currently trade at. I see no reason whatsoever why we shouldn't be trading at a minimum of 50% of Core's valuation, which would put the share price at 64p. I suspect 60-80p is where we are re-rating to at present.

"And no funding necessary at all for the foreseeable."

Yeah sure, please do some research on the history of this company & the number of fundraises they've done. There were a number of times where they released positive news & then raised at a steep discount straight after. The Tufts partnership RNS on 24/07/2018 shot the price up to 50.5p, they then announced a placing on 30/07 at 25p!

Cash was £37m at 30/06 with £10m used in the previous 6 months.

The p1 trial kicked off in August & the US side starts imminently, so cash usage will have increased in the last 6 months.

I suspect the cash balance is around £20m right now, so between 9-12 months cash runway.

Jupiter will close their short when AVCT raises cash, it'll be a piece of cake.

“The co was already beaten down at 20p by Woodford’s forced sale and a weak balance sheet. Since then they have raised >£48m, as well as advancing their own pipelines, adding multiple partners (eg Astrea), and achieving key milestones advancing these partnerships (eg AffyXell and LG Chem).”

What b*llocks.

Woodford has never had a notifiable holding in Avacta. It was down at 20p because they had multiple discounted placings & significant cash burn.

They’ve not really added any significant partners since Covid hit, certainly not compared to the 2017-2019 period when they signed the initial LG Chem & Tufts deals.

They’ve raised £48m and moved AVA6000 into the clinic, look back and 2017/18 and they were aiming for the clinic 2 years ago.

It’s always been jam tomorrow share and never has this been the case more than the last 2 years. More cash will be needed fairly soon, I’d be fairly certain it’ll be raised at below the current share price.

With the rate they are burning cash I've no idea why anyone would pay more than 10p? The results last Monday were horrific.

"Operating loss of £21.0 million for the six months ended 31 October 2021 (six months ended 31 October 2020: £13.6 million)."

Cash burn was over £15m for the 6 months to 31st October... who's going to pay more than the current £29m market cap for a company with that kind of financial profile?!

Anyone hear the withering commentary from Amati director Paul Jourdan re. Sensyne? He was absolutely disgusted with their behaviour - google v o x markets podcast with Paul Hill.

Any private equity involved here will have one express aim; get SENS private as cheaply as possible, strip out all of the unnecessary costs and then refloat it under a new name a couple of years down the line at as high a valuation as possible. They are vultures that look to maximised profit above anything else. Whilst it's delisted anything could happen; huge dilution & then consolidation making current shares worthless would be my best bet.

What they absolutely won't be doing is looking to pay over the odds to give shareholders that have bought in after the plunge from 75p a nice fat profit on their behalf. There is zero logic to such thinking.

Poor first impressions here.

"Unaudited management information for the year ended 30 September 2021 shows revenue of approximately £32.8 million. However, one of the Company’s clients, NMCN, went into administration in early October 2021. The Company is owed £588k for work undertaken for the water supply division of NMCN between July and September 2021."

~44% of revenues in the 6 months to March 2021 were derived from 1 customer, Balfour Beatty...

Add the fact that they raise significantly less for the company than expected;

https://www.lse.co.uk/news/in-brief-hercules-site-services-to-raise-20-less-than-hoped-from-ipo-t6v7dzh9t4lchj7.html

Net proceeds of just £2.7m for the company after costs versus £5.5m they hoped to raise (presumably £4.2m net of costs).

Not one for me.

Admission doc;

https://www.hercules-construction.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2022/02/Hercules-Site-Services-plc-Admission-Document-FINAL.pdf

“There is absolutely no incentive to allow the share price to grow by more than 30% per year on £3.54 otherwise future years are harder to achieve. I’m assuming it’s based on each year rather than the first year.”

What a moron you are. It’s based on the CAGR of the next 3 years, intra year movements are irrelevant. The share price could go to £7.08 tomorrow and stay there until 31/12/24 and they would get 100% of the bonus award as the average growth rate would be >30%

Re. not being able to buy, it's been the case multiple times of late, then an IPO seller comes along and frees up some stock and causes a small price drop. It's been obvious watching L2 - they are dealing through Cenkos (ADF house broker). Once loose IPO stock has gone this will move significantly higher IMO.

It's an exceptionally basic business, they have zero geographic diversification & are thus completely exposed to the impending cost of living squeeze in the UK.

Where is their competitive moat? What sets them apart from any new entrant undercutting them on price? Do they have brand power to pass on rising input & delivery costs? None, nothing & no would be my answers. Avoid.

@Sambar, it's a £4m market cap - completing a deal like this is significant...