Member Info for ShearClass

It's frankly unbelievable how poorly NCYT has performed over the last 12 months. I don't think anyone would have believed it possible for the share price to fall 87% in 12 months... At some point the truth will come out as to what is actually going on here, it makes no sense whatsoever for a company to sit on £70m+ for over a year and not have any non Covid products ready for release until Q4 22.

Technically it's playing out a textbook double top + head & shoulders pattern, once it broke beneath the neckline at 2.15 the French shorters have hammered it. The price is now about to enter a gap created on 23/03/2020 from £1.20-£1.58... should get some support at the bottom of that range but who knows... it smells like a sack of rancid potatoes.

Has the below article already been discussed in here? It’s not date stamped so I don’t know the exact release date… it certainly goes a long way to explaining why the share price has declined so far as it’s prime short material…

https://www.private-eye.co.uk/news

“BIOTECH company Primerdesign, which pocketed millions of pounds from taxpayers with its early development of Covid-19 PCR laboratory kits (Eye 1556), is now at the centre of claims that it faked validation results for one of its more recent products.

Owned by French group Novacyt, Primerdesign is said to have falsified data for a three-gene kit in order to cash in on last summer's travel demand for 'test to release' PCR tests. It is also accused of persuading the head of an NHS laboratory to provide the 'independent' validation report required before it could market its 'genesig Covid-19 3G assay', which falsely claimed the test was more than 99 percent accurate. As a result, the kit has sold in the UK and abroad mainly into the lucrative private PCR-testing market for international travellers, essential workers and those in the film, media and corporate world.”

What about the below?

"On 14 January 2022 the Company announced that it had accumulated a substantial debtor. The Company has ceased to pursue monies due under contract and expects to make a substantial provision in its accounts which will not impact the cash runway of the Company."

Why would you cease to pursue a substantial debtor less than 14 days after reporting it to the market?! And it does impact the cash runway, if that cash was received it would extend it!

Will that make any bidders want to pay over the current share price to buy the company?

Re. £1 salary / voting, what else can he do? BTW he paid himself a £500k base salary + £500k bonus in FY21...

For the first time in years I was pleasantly surprised reading this mornings update. I've been watching for a long while as the share price continued to descend the downtrend that began in November 2018. After a failed breakout in Jan 2021 at 24p, it's drifted all year, bouncing off the resistance line multiple times. Resistance now sits at 9.74p & with sentiment improving post today's update + Vanadium prices on the rise, I suspect now is as good a time as any to open a long position here...

To me the valuation here got way ahead of itself. Even now it's trading at 18x forecast FY22 earnings per share of 14.3p. This compares to 15.6 at it's IPO valuation of 108p. At it's peak of 400p it was on a 28x PE.... it sells cakes!!

I'd also question why they are paying a £1m interim dividend when they only had £4.1m of net cash - wouldn't the money be better used sitting on the balance sheet for a rainy day?

The fact the CEO & CFO held >35m shares pre IPO and are now down to just 11m also tells a story. I wouldn't be surprised in the slightest if this now drifts back to a PE of 10 in the current environment, IMO at that price it MIGHT be worth buying.

It's more than alleging, they have provided plenty of evidence to back up their claims of inconsistent disclosure;

https://knowledge.sharescope.co.uk/2022/01/21/cake-box-holdings-cbox/

After what happened with Patisserie Valerie, this is now on the bargepole list...

Excellent to see us close over 35p, solid buying all day again which offset profit taking and panicky traders. What a week! We have another 22,000m of drilling to announce over the coming weeks / months which should support further price appreciation, in addition the PFS can't be too far away and there is plenty of scope for unexpected news given the widely publicised supply shortages in the Lithium market ;)

Crikey, net cash at 31/12 was £107m vs £175m at 30/06... some of this is clearly tied up in increased stock held, however that's a major shift... sub 100p gets interesting but I'd want to see the full accounts before committing to an investment here.

Totally agree. As far as I'm concerned it should have been suspended before open last Friday pending the outcome of the MBO / takeover discussions & funding. How can what has ensued be described as an orderly market?!

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-60066432 - first government funding confirmed, has to be a good thing for AMTE?

As per the final results RNS;

"The Group expects to confirm the site of its UK based Gigafactory and government funding support in 2022."

From a £49m market cap with £9m cash it won't take much to get things moving significantly higher - crazy to think this has fallen nearly 60% from it's highs last March / April...

Yep, I think a lot of these trades are actually buys given the price action - someone is buying everything they can get their hands on...

Not sure the market is going to like capital costs increasing by ~$160m vs the 2019 PFS...

Amazing. I remember watching the LSE interview back in November and the CEO was arrogantly bullish, what an absolute c**k

"Their short argument is predicated on a slowdown in bookings, when in reality bookings have and are accelerating."

You what?

"Alphawave IP delivered strong half year results with bookings of US$196.1m, an increase of 492% from H1 2020, including US$147.8m of bookings for recurring revenue subscription licences from Verisilicon and CPP."

"The Company's Q3 bookings were US$23.2m, of which US$21.5m were license and related, and US$1.8m are estimates of potential future royalties."

"Total new bookings for Q4 2021 were US$25.5m, of which US$18.5m are license and related, and US$7.0m are estimates of potential future royalties."

Excluding the Chinese deals first half revenue was $48.2m

Second half revenues as per the Q3 and Q4 trading statements was $48.8m

Strip royalties out and Q4 bookings were 14% lower than Q3, I don't think we had a breakdown for H2 revenues & royalties excluding Veri and CPP, but whichever way you cut it bookings look flat & they are going to need a miracle to avoid posting negative growth comps in 2022 due to the Veri and CPP deals.

The real entertainment is going to be revenue recognition vs bookings & then cash flow vs revenue.

The US had a national holiday yesterday, so my guess would be one of the hedge funds short of AWE has read the most recent RNS and decided to increase their position further.

Why is 50-60p a fair estimate? Based on what?!

Core Lithium was referenced by Vincent as being our closest comparable project, although they are a year ahead in development terms. https://corelithium.com.au/

Their market cap is currently A$1.5B / £815m, they have a 15mt resource at 1.3% grade for a 10 year mine life, so significantly smaller than Ewoyaa currently is. Yes they are based in Australia which is a tier 1 jurisdiction, however that doesn't come close to justifying the current £650m difference in market caps.

At £815m ALL would be valued at £1.42, give it a 25% haircut for the difference in jurisdiction and you get a 1 year target price of £1.06 (when we should be at the same stage as Core are now...).

So much upside to come here.

Ps. If anyone wants to feel even more bullish then listen to the following video released yesterday; https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OhNxe0xLh3Y

Based on the share price movement it appears a placing is imminent...

Just needs a little bit of volume and it'll be off into the 20's...

£12m market cap, raised £10m last June & had £4.2m of net cash pre raise, cash burn reducing across the board so should still have at least £10m now, if not more. The market cap simply doesn't make sense based on this mornings RNS.... surely it should be at least double the current level?

I can only assume there has been a delay with the funds clearing as there hasn't been a further announcement?

"Once cleared funds have been received from the First Investor, a further announcement will be published and an application be made to admit to trading on AIM the new Ordinary Shares subscribed by the First Investor, with admission expected on or around 14 January 2022 ("Admission"). "