Member Info for ShearClass

I'm surprised at such a bullish post, I thought it was a shocker to be honest

Re. EV/EBITDA

"On that basis, the Group now expects full year Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of £7.0-7.5m..H1 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around £1.0-1.5m, reflecting the pressures on H1 performance as outlined above."

The market cap is down to £52m , they had borrowings of £18m at 31/03 and cash of £7m, let's ignore deferred consideration as it's not material and uncertain. That leaves an EV of £63m, which is just under 9x the mid point of their 2023 adjusted EBITDA forecast. Either way, it's nowhere near 5x EV/EBITDA, which would need a share price of ~30p.

I also disagree about the management changes being positive, the outgoing team have major skin in the game whereas the newcomers have nothing... why are Neal & Olly leaving immediately? Lot's of unanswered questions. What public company experience have the new guys got? Managing private entities is a completely different ball game. As for the new CFO, he's been with the company for 6 months and now has to take on responsibility for consolidating a multitude of acquisitions, deferred consideration, different business models etc etc.

Good luck to you...

Absolutely ridiculous time to release results, the sooner crap like this is gone from the market the better in my view.

Here's the Lenovo announcement; https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220928005325/en/Lenovo-ThinkReality-VRX-%E2%80%94New-All-in-One-Virtual-Reality-Solution-Designed-for-the-Enterprise-Metaverse

"Lenovo is also collaborating with leading enterprise software vendors, including ENGAGE XR, a Metaverse communications platform for collaboration, training and education, to build and offer a Lenovo presence in the Metaverse."

So to reiterate, Lenovo, a corporation with a market cap of £8.2b, consider EXR to be a leading enterprise software vendor for the metaverse... when you consider they could have chosen absolutely any company on the planet it hits home how much the Whelan's and team have achieved here.

A true multibagger in the making.

Fantastic endorsement, the roster of LINK launch partners is looking incredible - could be close to a critical mass tipping point here…

MajorOak, the ASX issue was at 0.58c, not 0.35, so nobody is in profit at present! It was simply bad timing on the IPO, just 2 trading days ago everyone was obsessing about a 5 month payback period & 224% IRR and paying 43-48p, today you can buy for 36p and yet some still want it lower… If you’ve done your research then this is a great opportunity IMO (if you can buy!)

Octopus were the seller yesterday then, very positive that someone wanted to buy that many at 11p…

Where have you read this GK? Great news obviously…

MajorOak, thanks for posting that text from the $15m April investment in Latin Resources by Waratah.

Latin are ASX listed and have a current market cap of A$234m, they aim to define their first JORC resource this coming December.

Here’s a presentation they released yesterday;

https://www.investi.com.au/api/announcements/lrs/d351f761-9f9.pdf

P9 shows what they describe as ‘significant intersections’

SADD004: 17.38m @ 1.46% Li2O from 119.80m 2.00m @ 3.07% Li2O from 127.00m
SADD006: 21.1m @ 1.20% Li2O from 208.80m 3.00m @ 2.28% Li2O from 214.90m
SADD0017: 8.87m @ 1.09% Li2O) from 137.00m 13.86m @ 1.33% Li2O from 173.29m
SADD019: 11.96m @ 1.64% Li2O from 206.24m
SADD0020: 2.35m @ 3.57% Li2O from 120.33m

Compared to the most recent release from Atlantic on 2/8;

Broad, high-grade drill intersections returned at the Ewoyaa Main deposit, including highlights of:

o GRC0667: 69m at 1.34% Li(2) O from 129m
o GRC0666: 67m at 1.2% Li(2) O from 112m
o GRC0670: 59m at 1.07% Li(2) O from 125m
o GRC0669: 59m at 0.95% Li(2) O from 113m

Not hard to see why Waratah wanted a piece of ALL before we hit the big league…

@Pasb, your calculations are based on what would effectively be a sub scale mine...

$3.07b revenue / $1600 = 1.9m oz gold mined in 9 years = 213koz per annum. With the most recent resource estimate of 5.5m oz, mining at 213koz pa would give a mine life of ~26 years... given that they are still expanding the resource in all directions & will likely increases the resource to 8-10moz in the next couple of years, why would Newcrest bother committing significant capex to produce at a sub scale rate?

Shaun Day said Telfer produced at 700koz per annum at peak, I'm sure if you capped their max production at 200koz Newcrest wouldn't be where they are today... Havieron will end up at 400-700k per annum if / when the resource reaches 10moz, your calcs will look very different if you plug in those figures!

Unsure how anyone can have the conviction to buy in at a £750m market cap after they've cut the 2023 sales by almost 50%... £23-28m annual revenue is still nothing - for comparison, NEL Hydrogen had Q2 quarterly income of ~£16m, order intake of ~£20m and received a 200mw order post quarter end + €8m of additional orders... They have a £1.8b market cap but are clearly streets ahead of ITM.

My take is that Brexit has killed ITM's European tender process and the UK / RoW isn't going to make up for it anytime soon. If shares were to retest the 40p level that Linde invested at in October 2019 then I would buy in for the long term, up here there is little incentive at all IMO.

Game changing news yesterday, well done to all long term holders + those that can see the bigger picture and look through the dilution. I certainly didn't expect Shaun Day to pull off such a feat, major kudos for doing so.

Re. shorts, if a certain hedge fund was short yesterday morning they broadly had three options;

1. Start buying back the shares immediately, this would have likely fuelled a huge spike as a rising share price would attract more PI's. This would be a bad strategy and akin to panicking.

2. Do nothing, wait for the excitement of the deal to subside and then gradually begin to buy the shares back over the next month prior to the shareholder vote to approve the equity investment. This would be a neutral strategy and the risk would be that PI buying would drive the price higher and attract more buyers...

3. Increase their short position in the few days after the news dropped to deter buyers, attract sellers (who are upset by dilution or want to take a 10% profit) and kill momentum. By increasing their shorts at 9.3-9.6p and aiming to close them at 8-8.5p they will book gains on the short term positions & reduce the risk of making a loss on their longer term positions when they close them.

In my opinion, option 3 is the lowest risk & makes a lot of sense for what is a heavily PI owned share. Make no mistake though, there is now very little upside to being short GGP.

I started buying in yesterday and will continue to increase as it falls back, I expect the share price will test the top of the downtrend at 11.5p in the next few weeks and then break higher from there.

Now time time research Fortescue Metals Group, a company that went from 5c a share in mid 2004 to $18 today...

Wow, net debt £25m above the top of the expected range 3 months ago tells you how exposed ASC are to slowing revenue growth (2% achieved vs 4-7% forecast in June).

Roughly that translates to £12.5m worsening in net debt per 1% decrease in expected sales…

Gross debt was £467m at 28/02, so assuming that has remained at a similar level then cash at 31/08 was ~£310m, still a buffer but getting a bit tighter than expected. Is it enough to see out the next 12-18 months before we hopefully return to happier times?

Suspect ASC closes sub 500p today.

Good to see us back at 40p, nice gift to be able to add under 35p last week. Re. ALL vs EMH, I don't know of a single reason I'd buy EMH, for a start they require a huge amount of financing to even get close to building their project, their January PFS stated they needed $644m of up front capital... compare that to their current £77m market cap and you can see why EMH shares are down 40% year to date (when most other Lithium stocks have shone). One to avoid at all costs IMO, there are so many better options out there.

Indeed, I posted the article here yesterday morning as I was massively surprised to read that institutions had apparently been given the heads up on undisclosed financial information. It’s absolutely unheard of to discuss figures with external parties before issuing an RNS. I fully expected a trading update this morning, the fact there is silence is bizarre. Something feels like it’s brewing to me.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/retail-blow-as-matalan-asos-and-joules-take-a-hit-pd9mcv0pz

“Evidence is mounting that the cost of living crisis is taking a toll on retailers. Asos has been privately briefing City analysts that pre-tax profits for the year just ended will be towards the bottom of the £20 million to £60 million range given in June. It had originally forecast profits of £110 million to £140 million. It has blamed higher rates of customer returns.

Asos also indicated to analysts that sales in the coming year were likely to fall below consensus forecasts for 9.8 per cent growth, leading one analyst to say they were “slightly uneasy” at the way it was managing expectations. A source close to Asos said pre-close calls were routine and no non-public information was shared.”

I’ve no idea how ‘privately briefing’ analysts about pre close financial performance isn’t deemed to be disclosing price sensitive information?! Isn’t this creating a disorderly market in ASC shares?

Here's what they said in the June trading statement;

"Guidance for the year updated to reflect uncertain consumer purchasing behaviour and the potential continuation of higher returns with revenue growth expected to be 4% to 7% and adjusted PBT now expected to be in the range of £20m to £60m"

Things have escalated considerably then...

They also said;

"Net debt expected to be in the range £75m and £125m reflecting the combination of lower profit and higher inventory levels"

So at todays £660m market cap they have an enterprise value of ~£800m (assuming debt is top of range) and are trading at between 10-30x this years adjusted PBT.

That doesn't seem at all cheap to me given the huge uncertainty around cost of living & fact that the ASC target market are directly in the firing line...

Shorters really getting stuck in now, GGP committed the cardinal sin of raising cash below the bottom of a long term downtrend which was obviously asking for trouble. How far it falls from here is anyones guess, the market cap is still £360m and they still need significant cash to participate in any future upside + owe debt to Newmont. I'd guess 5p but anything could happen in this market, especially with gold under pressure from rising rates...

“Boohoo is struggling, or has cashflow problems, why spend several million £ to buy up a 12% stake in Revolution Beauty?”

- Desperation?
- A cheap way to boost top line revenue growth (a la THG)?
- Massaging humongous egos?

Personally I hope BOO go bust, utterly vile company that is a leech on society.

Undoubtedly better to wait, holding a suspended share that has audit problems is pure stress. If all is ok it'll be a good trade on the day it relists...

Wow, what a sh*tshow this has been, fortunes will have been made or lost here over the past few weeks depending on timing. I got out because you can't take your eyes of it intraday, today's RNS is the perfect example. Some will get a nasty shock when they check their accounts this evening...