Member Info for ShearClass

Must be referring to imminent launch of LINK? Still hasn't stopped someone selling 40k shares below the bid this morning, the mind boggles... I think there are 4 of us on here that have grasped what is happening here, judging by the volume we are almost invisible to the rest of the market!

If anything could encapsulate the enigma that is AWE then it’s that acquisition… I suspect the market won’t react kindly to taking on $210m debt in a rising rate environment to fund the acquisition of a company that was only founded in 2020.

In addition, it’s extremely rare to see warrants granted which are subject to downward price adjustment, surely at 116p vs the 410p IPO price they are already getting a bargain no?!

“In addition, the non-binding framework agreement contemplates the Company issuing future stock warrants of up to 2.5% of the issued share capital of the Company, with vesting based on purchases of Alphawave silicon products of up to US$700 million over the same period, and an exercise price based on the current trading price of the Company's shares, subject to downward adjustment if the Company's shares trade lower prior to issuance. The Company intends to solicit all required shareholder approvals, ahead of finalizing any warrant grants, which are not expected until at least 2024.”

Yep, didn't see that one coming...

25th Aug holdings as per yesterday's RNS; 138,800,022

7th Oct holdings today; 130,300,022

So they've sold 8.5m since the August placing... quite the cornerstone...

@OT found another very good article featuring lots of quotes from Vishal Shah of Lenovo

https://metaverseinsider.tech/2022/10/03/lenovo-the-building-blocks-of-the-metaverse-with-vishal-shah/

“The metaverse will be multiple metaverses, hopefully. Whether it’s commercial, whether it’s retail, whether it’s a pure NFT kind of exchange system, or whether it’s an enterprise metaverse. No matter what the metaverse is, we believe that the best way to enjoy that is in an immersive 3D environment through some sort of AR/VR device.”

"Lenovo’s strategy is around interoperability – having and supporting an open, flexible, and secure system for their customers. There is no doubt that Lenovo is ahead of the game in the metaverse space; they are well positioned for the key building blocks and have the resources to make it work."

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Everything said tallies with DW's statement in the RNS;

David Whelan, CEO, ENGAGE XR said: "The launch of The Lenovo ThinkReality VRX shows the growing anticipation that more and more work will be done in the Metaverse. While other technology companies have focused on the social and entertainment opportunities, Lenovo has identified the huge benefits for enterprises utilizing the metaverse to engage with employees, customers and suppliers around the world. We are delighted that they have chosen ENGAGE to build their presence within the Metaverse."

Wow, to say that’s embarrassing is an understatement.

It’s not as if the 9th September trading update used language that was flexible, had it said ASOS plans / intends to report full year results on 12th October then you could maybe give them the benefit of doubt… However, it appears to me that they’ve delayed them by a week and not informed the market?

Hmmm, has someone slept in? No RNS anywhere to be seen…

“ASOS will report full-year results on 12 October 2022”

Wow, talk about industry tailwinds... this is from 3 weeks ago;

https://sifted.eu/articles/improbable-profitability-3bn-valuation-news/

"London-based metaverse platform Improbable has raised a new $100m investment round, led by UK blockchain company Elrond, at a valuation of more than $3bn, and says it’s aiming for profitability by the end of this year."

There's a more detailed article in the FT if you have a subscription; https://www.ft.com/content/e0e7cf90-0c5e-4a56-8285-9d36f8c43264

A couple of extracts;

"Improbable’s latest funding round, led by blockchain technology company Elrond, would value London-based Improbable at more than $3bn, the company said, an increase from its $2.5bn valuation in 2018."

"The financing comes despite the generally weak investment climate for lossmaking tech start-ups and Improbable’s decade-long struggle to develop blockbuster video games, an effort it has now abandoned."

"The company is paid upfront to build a virtual world for clients and then receives regular income to operate it, including from sales of digital assets for metaverse inhabitants to wear, build or trade."

Then consider who EXR already have as clients and compare the market caps...

Based on the Improbable valuation I can't see how ENGAGE / LINK isn't worth at least £100m, if not substantially more.

It's got very little to do with global markets and everything to do with execution & commercial prowess. Even at 16p it's a £76m market cap with significant debt & dwindling gross profit of ~$600k per month, so looks significantly overvalued. And still the buys pour in! Why? Do all these people just buy because the price is lower than the previous day? Do they read the contents of RNS's or just ignore them and punt? I think it has to be the latter, as otherwise why would you commit more cash after that update? They've spent tens of millions on a facility that has to be closed for significant periods as they would presumably be making a gross loss if they had the machines running... you couldn't make it up!

Three interesting articles all with quotes from KPMG;

https://www.bizjournals.com/boston/news/2022/10/07/the-metaverse-land-of-opportunity.html

https://www.hrdive.com/news/metaverse-work-vr-interest/631540/

https://www.ciodive.com/news/metaverse-enterprise-adoption-technology/632908/

“Nearly 7 in 10 businesses with plans to adopt the metaverse and Web3 say they’ll outsource and/or partner with tech companies instead of building capabilities in-house.”

“Almost two-thirds of executives say they are waiting for competitors to invest in and/or adopt metaverse technologies before investing themselves.”

It seems that the tipping point where there is a sudden clamour for every company to have their own professional metaverse space is getting closer. With ENGAGE already having attracted the likes of KPMG, St James Place etc as vocal early adopters you have to think we are in pole position for explosive growth.

The launch of LINK should be the key that unlocks the next stage of the evolution & breaks the share price out of its long term channel in the 10-18p range. Not long to go now…

Superdry have a £93m market cap and reported profit before tax of £22m, their net debt was £1m...

ASC have a current market cap of £545m and expect to report an adjusted profit around the bottom end of company guidance (£20-60m), they had net debt of £150m

The critical question is what will the 2023 outlook look like... SDRY forecast profit of between £10-20m, what will ASC feel comfortable forecasting? In the short to medium term that expectation is what will determine whether ASC is anywhere near the bottom IMO.

Thanks a lot for sharing that OT, very exciting to see such overwhelmingly positive user feedback from SJP. Must admit I’m very tempted to add more here, bear market or not I simply can’t believe Engage isn’t worth significantly more than its £37m market cap…

Looks like a bit of a short squeeze into close- I wonder if they were surprised by the sudden rise in gold this week? The 6.9m at 8.50 definitely smells a bit toasty to me...

No quote to buy 1k shares now, I think the seller is potentially done now...

Have taken some this morning after the latest batch of director / insider buying, it certainly shows impressive conviction & suggests that once the II’s run out of shares to sell this will move significantly higher. I’d have 50p as a short term round number target.

Wow, that's a real shocker. Wouldn't surprise me to see this hit 70-80p over the next few months as sentiment will suffer for placing at a 15% discount to the 20 day moving average.

I'd urge anyone thinking of averaging down to re-read the Araguia technical report published last year;

https://horizonteminerals.com/news/20210401_HZM-Araguaia-Project-NI-43-101.pdf

P312 has the production schedule over LoM, years 1-4 was forecast to produce just $171m of revenue, this may have changed but I've not seen any evidence?

IMO it'll be 2028-29 before Araguia produces any revenue of any significance & I'd be amazed if they don't require significant further capital along the way.

This is one to avoid as far as I'm concerned.

It'll be either Jupiter or another II that's the forced seller in my view - profit warnings give II's an excuse to offload & also provide them with liquidity to sell into. Once their clear then we should see a pop back to at least 120p. Same thing happened with Synthomer last week (and that RNS looked substantially worse than this mornings from WJG). As ever time will tell...

There is absolutely no sign of any seller being out, the L2 order book is still flat and the price is being held in the 25-35 range. The most obvious sign of a seller being cleared are big delayed prints, of which there have been none so far.

It's a very illiquid share, there is likely at least one big seller in the background and the market makers will keep dropping the share price until enough volume comes in to clear the sell(s). At present the biggest issue is the spread which is frankly ridiculous at 33%, if you're buying then you are hoping that the greater fool theory plays out - whoever just bought 69k shares at 30p is already down £3.5k on the spread alone. Madness if you ask me.

Agree @timbertrader, I've been watching very closely since the Wyloo deal & PI buying has probably outweighed PI selling by 5 x, however it's been offset by persistent selling of 200/300/400/500k blocks. Now either this is a genuine seller or it's being 'managed' down by a shorting party. The end game is likely to drive out as many PI's as possible from a share that has a huge PI following and enable an entry point for an institutional investor. The current market conditions are perfect for scaring out small holders who are over invested vs their net worth, I suspect it continues until the end of November before they ease off in advance of the FS & commencement of new board members.

They aren't halfway through 2H as their financial year ends on 31st March, therefore H1 finishes today...

19th July;

"This had a temporary impact on revenues and Adjusted EBITDA for April and May which have subsequently returned to more normalised levels in June and so far in July. As a consequence of this, we anticipate FY2023 to be a little more second half weighted than usual and have every confidence in meeting FY2023 market expectations of revenues of £97.4m and Adjusted EBITDA of £13.7m."

30/09

"On that basis, the Group now expects full year Adjusted EBITDA to be in the range of £7.0-7.5m, reflecting the investment in talent and operating costs outlined above. H1 Adjusted EBITDA is expected to be around £1.0-1.5m, reflecting the pressures on H1 performance as outlined above."

That is some turnaround is the space of 10 weeks.

Also note the revenue decrease from £97.4m to £90m almost matches the reduction in EBITDA from £13.7m to £7m...

That suggests the EBITDA reduction is down to revenue missing expectations and has very little to do with 'investment in talent and operating costs'

Having faith in them hitting H2 forecasts based on the shift in the last 10 weeks seems a bit mad IMO.