Member Info for ShearClass

Fantastic stuff! And just to reaffirm ENGAGE’s lynchpin role in all of this, he posted the below 2 weeks ago;

“Northern Illinois University is the first university in the state to launch a metaversity campus..and this is in a state with some technological leaders. What I love about this campus is the beautiful architecture and, it's only 2 hours from our home office! Special thanks to Meta for funding the buildout. As always built on the robust ENGAGE XR platform.”

Let’s assume the 45 by end of year average 100 licenses each @ $100 per student PA, you’re already up the $450k of recurring revenue. Roll forwards a couple of years and the license figure from those 45 early adopters could easily 10x or more.

As per Google there are ~4000 universities in the US, so Victory XR are just getting started…

They aren't sells, the current ask on a dummy buy quote for 10k shares is 100p. The advertised spread is false as per usual on LSE, the market makers are trying to make PI's think everyone else is selling and then drop the share price when someone does... Why do they do this? IMO it's to sow seeds of doubt in the minds of those who spend too much time watching / are over invested in a small cap. This is a very difficult company to value at present, however the potential is off the charts if they can execute.

Well they've nearly halved their FY2023 forecasted revenues from £22m to ~£12.6m, other than that it's an excellent update as per usual with these guys. Interested to see where it opens - the problem with AIM is there have been so many 'jam tomorrow' type companies that the market is often very impatient / disbelieving when revenues keep getting pushed out!

I think the CEO comes across superbly and have been really impressed with progress made to date. They did very well to raised £23m over the summer at £1.38. The problem at present is the lack of newsflow and uncertainty with regard to what are very ambitious 2023/24 financial targets. If they can hit them then it's a snip, however if they miss then it's got a long way to tumble even from 95p. One of my top watches and a company I'd really like to see succeed, fingers crossed for them.

I would say the exact same back to you...

"Management own 38%" - So what? Didn't the same management sell 54.3m shares in the IPO at £4.10 each, raking in a grand total of £222m?

Sutarja sold 17.4m shares in the IPO netting £71m, he bought back ~10m shares earlier this year all for well under £2.

Blackrock as a positive sign? Funny that they reported 12.7m shares on loan in their last holdings RNS on 12th May and appear to have sold 23m shares since the IPO...

As for everything being split out in today's RNS, are you having a laugh?

If that's the case what was organic growth in Q3 for the original Alphawave that IPO'd? Why are they quoting 169% growth rates for top line with no mention of underlying margins?

And as for 10x PE being cheap, it's not when you compare AWE to a respectable peer like Nordic Semiconductor that are trading at around 8x 2023 PE and have an established track record.

Any more shi*e that you want to peddle?

Yeah I can't bring myself to touch ASC until I've seen the financial statements on Wed. It's a pure gamble buying today as nobody has a clue what lies around the corner. If talks don't go well with the lenders you could be looking at sub £3 by the end of the week, on the other hand if things get resolved and the outlook statement is positive then a rebound to £6/7 is possible. You may as well toss a coin really...

Why is is very sad? In my opinion it's inevitable if your disclosure is as consistently poor as AWE has been. No HNW individual or fund will touch a share that obfuscates underlying performance. It was hard enough to decipher revenue & bookings pre consolidation, now it's pointless even bothering to try!

Yep, totally inadequate, no doubt we'll find out from the media which specific financial covenants they are seeking to amend and get a better idea of what is actually going on as that seems to be the way here at present. I suspect they delayed the final results because they wanted to get this tied up first, it was therefore highly inconvenient that someone apparently leaked their activities to the Times. Let's see what Wednesday brings...

The audacity of these lot takes some beating. Consolidating the acquisition of a significantly lower margin company for the first time and having the gall to report a 169% increase in revenues but not mentioning margins or organic performance whatsoever... Outrageous. The reporting is simply a mess, there is no way you can sift through that update an determine how they are actually performing IMO.

“Such a leaky company, shocking governance that shareholders always seem to be the last to know.”

I couldn’t agree more, I suspect they are treading a very fine line with the stock exchange at present.

- Apparently giving select analysts the heads up on reduced profit expectations for the full year before issuing a formal trading update - as per the times a few weeks back

- changing the release date of annual results from 12 Oct to 19th without formally notifying the market (despite stating the 12th in an RNS on 9th September)

- Today we read in the press of material changes to credit insurance happening over 6 weeks ago which appear to have driven a need to amend covenants / raise additional liquidity.

It seems to me at least that the current management team don’t understand that ALL material information should be disclosed via RNS to ALL shareholders / stakeholders at the same time & not disseminated via the media first. This is particularly true of a company which is currently the 5th most shorted on the LSE.

In my opinion this isn’t anything close to a level playing field and brings the UK market into disrepute, it needs to stop ASAP.

It's a very very intriguing post. He's clearly bursting at the seams to announce whatever it is & this comes off the back of the twitter post about 'working on something special for some time now' a couple of days ago. Thanks as usual to OT for posting!

I've added some more off the back of it as I see anything sub the 16p June 2021 placing level as an utter bargain. When you think of how much the VR space has evolved since then & moreover how much ENGAGE has progressed from a product & commercial point of view it's baffling that the valuation has decreased over the last 16 months. Yes, we've been in a small cap bear market that whole time, but there is no bear market in the VR space and this will be reflected sooner of later.

Re. LINK launch announcements, it's anyone's guess as to timing. There are still at least 2 launch partners to be announced, plus the project(s) DW is so excited about, plus the official launch. It's going to be an exciting few months, hopefully transformational for the company & share price.

Engage is really starting to proliferate now, the justifications for the grant funding all make so much sense. For science, history, geography / any practical subject I see VR becoming a standardised teaching tool over the next decade, you could effectively go on a field trip once a week to reinforce taught material. It’s a no brainer surely.

So just to be clear on where this leaves the company;

"As set out in the Company's AGM statement on 28 September 2022, the Board expects to propose a capital raise of approximately £40m, which will include the 19:1 ordinary share issue mandated by the Scheme."

There are currently 475m shares in issue... and there are going to be multiplied by 19. So that's 9.025b shares.

At a share price of 4p that puts the market cap at £360m plus the £40m they need to raise

So you're looking at a company with a £400m market cap and a TBC amount of cash & debt (difficult to work out given old loans being wound down etc, but maybe £50m ish?)

That makes sense as AMGO IPO'd back in 2018 at a £1.3b valuation, so the FCA are keen to ensure that investors aren't going to make too much hay out of the situation.

Interesting to see where it opens in the morning.

Cheers, glad to find another small cap that now ticks all of the right boxes from an investment point of view. Post todays news the upside seems asymmetric to say the least, for now the though the seller continues to dump with another 150k sold in the last 30 mins offset by a 95k buy. Bizarre!

This has been NT to buy for more than 10k shares for most of the past hour, yet instead of moving the price up the market makers hold it and wait for the inevitable sellers to come along. That's AIM in a nutshell right now, if a share tries to rise then it is shut down by either profit taking or market makers not wanting to deal. Why not allow buyers who come along to take 25k shares if you allowing sellers to sell 50k in one go? I've never seen it so bad.

Very good point OT, hadn't noticed that but it would make sense!

And apologies you are correct harry, I undershot the numbers by 20%... maybe more going by the fact your post has 4 recommends (1 of them being mine)

Yes you are right that the AQUIS trades are separate to those shown on LSE.

I make it ~19m shares traded month to date with 18m of those since Amati's TR1 which had a threshold crossed date of 5th October.

Average daily volume for the first 9 months of the year was ~244k shares, for October to date it's 2.4m

What's more, there are only 116m shares in issue and ignoring Amati I have 61.5m held by major shareholders / directors

https://invinity.com/investors/major-shareholders/

So that leave 54.5m for PI's to play with & nearly 10% of that number have changed hands today alone...

I've doubled the position I took in the opening skirmishes as I see the huge volume + material newsflow as marking the bottom here and the upside is very significant indeed IMO.

Now consider the list of major shareholders; https://invinity.com/investors/major-shareholders/

Brattus, show me another deal where a customer is essentially given 'bottomless' warrants?! Isn't it an invitation for said customer to short AWE stock? I've never seen it before and for obvious reason. Why would the hyperscaler not just take a vanilla warrants that give them the option to own an equity stake at the current valuation?

Here is a very recent example of how it's usually done from LSE listed Boku; https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/boku/news/rns/story/ry59g3w

"Concurrently, Boku has issued to Amazon warrants to subscribe for up to 11,215,142 shares of Boku's common stock ("Common Stock") representing up to 3.75% of Boku's existing issued share capital, of which 747,676 shares, or 0.25%, vested on the issuance of the warrants, and the balance vests based on Amazon achieving certain revenue targets over the next seven years. The warrant costs will be matched to and offset against revenues generated by Boku from Amazon.

The warrants are exercisable at 81.20p, which was the 30-trading day volume-weighted average price of Boku's Common Stock immediately prior to issuing the warrants. The warrants will be exercisable for ten years from the issue date. The warrants may be exercised in whole or in part by Amazon."

Amazon thus have warrants at 81.2p vs a share price that has since moved to 127p...

Amati have become somewhat of an embarrassment in my opinion, if you are going to take significant positions in AIM small caps then you need to be holding your shares at times like these. Selling out at the all time low when a company in scaling up isn't a good look although it does provide a great opportunity to load up. I'd also guess that there will be some profit taking from the 20p levels, however I'd say it's a better bet today at 30p than it was back then, as you need newsflow to drive volume.

Agree on how good this RNS was, incredibly bullish and justifies a significant re-rate.. picking just three quotes that I thought were particularly exciting;

"Invinity has a clear path to profitability and we are marching that path with confidence and determination."

"looking forward to concluding the contract for what we expect at delivery will be North America's - and Invinity's - largest flow battery."

"further enhancing the competitiveness of the Company's products in the burgeoning U.S. energy storage market."