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Baillie Gifford TR1 showing a reduction to 9m shares from 13m, explains some of the share price weakness, of course the vast majority of weakness is from the imminent need to raise a large amount of capital...

Very substantial order - 15mwh = around 75 batteries, at £170k a battery (Arden figures) that equates to a £12.75m. Maybe knock a bit off for economies of scale but even so, that's more than a third of the current market cap. The 255mwh of follows on would be worth around £216m based on £170k per 0.2mwh battery... potentially transformational.

A good article published last week on what lies ahead...

https://www.clinicaltrialsarena.com/news/company-news/redx-pharma-trial-preview/

The Crohn's disease work seems particularly notable;

"Redx is also planning to bring a new asset into clinical development, Robertson shares. The company is currently working on the non-clinical IND package for RXC008, a gastrointestinal (GI)-restricted Rock inhibitor, which is being developed for fibrostenotic Crohn’s disease (CD).

Redx will start with a Phase I healthy volunteer study that is planned to begin at the end of 2023 or very early in 2024. Afterwards, a Phase I will be initiated in a small cohort of patients who already had a stricture and are at a high risk of developing a second one.

Robertson notes that this is an area of high unmet need as patients with CD who develop strictures tend to go on to develop more. “Anything that could reverse that fibrosis or reduce the risk of recurrent strictures could be a very valuable treatment,” she adds.

Indeed, only nine planned or ongoing clinical trials specify fibrosis, fibrostenosis, or strictures in their inclusion criteria. Out of those nine trials, none are investigating ROCK inhibitors. For comparison, there are a total of 431 ongoing or planned studies in CD."

In 2018 Strix reported PAT of £23.2m, they had a market cap of £267m and debt of £28m, so enterprise value of £295m. I.e. they were trading on around 13x EV - PAT

Today they said they are guiding to £23m PAT, they have a market cap of £170m at 77.5p and have debt of ~£100mm so enterprise value is around £270m. So today they are trading on an EV - PAT of just less than 12

The business environment today is far worse than 2018 and KETL have a bucket load more debt which is exposed to higher interest rates.

You can make a very good argument that the current valuation is fair vs where it traded pre covid, in fact you could easily say it should be valued lower due to the increased internal and external risks it is facing.

From a quick review of the last couple of years financial statements, this appears to be a classic case of a company wanting to have their cake & eat it, i.e. wanting to be a debt funded growth company whilst at the same time pay big dividends.

They generated operating cashflow of £53m in 2020+2021, £40m of which was spent on investing activities such as buying fixes assets, leaving a net £13m to support future growth.

However, dividend payments across both years totalled just shy of £32m, this was paid for by increasing their net borrowings by £29m. I.e. they've effectively been paying dividends via their RCF.

Now this was fine when times were good, however clearly economic activity has taken a turn for the worse + risks around Chinese operations should have been clear and obvious to management post pandemic. Quite why they decided to make another big acquisition in early October is anyone's guess, however it's added fuel to the fire re. debt.

Personally I don't see how paying the final dividend of around £12m is feasible or sensible in light of a profit shortfall of £4-6m versus expectations just over 2 months ago. Add in the fact their interest costs are likely around £4-5m per annum and in my view they need to suspend it and plough all free cash flow into deleveraging as rapidly as possible. Until they do that I wouldn't consider buying shares here.

Came across REDX yesterday when I listened to this interview;

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KMMH-ZAqYE

Mentioned 46 mins in in relation to 3-5 year milestone payments vs current market cap and being on a current PE of 1.

I also believe they are talking about REDX when they say that some of the companies in the forthcoming fund could create front page news via finding a cure for cancer / a certain type of cancer - that appears to be the case with RXC004 and the fantastic news that was shared via the independent and ITV.

Much research to be done on my part, however this looks like a very exciting company that is currently lurking miles below the radar of AIM investors. I found it amazing that the total value of shares traded from the start of September to yesterday's open was just £225k, an average of £3.5k per day...

I'd also add that due to the uber tight free float here, any new fund wanting to take a position of even 500k shares would cause a serious rise in share price. The current cap table is;

Redmile - 245m shares

Soffinova - 44m shares

Polar Cap - 16.5m shares

Platinum - ~5m shares. They took 1.7m shares in the May placing & were already a shareholder, so I would estimate they hold around 5m shares, this would put their position at ~1% of total fund NAV which makes sense; https://www.platinum.com.au/Our-Products/All-Products/Platinum-International-Health-Care-Fund

Invus - 5 - 8m shares. New investor in the May placing. They have $10b AUM and I can't imagine they would bother getting involved if they weren't taking a decent opening position. (There were also 8.5m shares unaccounted for in the May placing when excluding the 4 existing II's that took part and disclosed the additional shares taken).

Management ~2m shares

Total held by 5 II's + management = 317 - 320m shares

Total shares in issue = 334.9 shares

Free float = 14-17m shares. Tight.

It'll more than likely be Richard Griffiths using the liquidity to reduce his 57m holding. The deal value is almost irrelevant given that we have no visibility on what needs to happen to achieve the milestones or what potential timelines are. The upfront is minimal at £2m, what would have been far more impressive is if AZN took an equity stake in C4XD or the upfront was significantly higher.

Volume traded is £600k, it opened down as has fallen further. Smells like a potential short report or broker downgrade to me.

I can remember the spike on the $294m Indivior deal way back in March 2018 when the share price hit 150p. There were just 47m shares in issue back then so the market cap was ~£70m. Nearly 5 years on and the share price is less than 20% of the all time high as shares in issue have ballooned to 252m. There's a lesson there for any new AIM investors to learn...

Also note the upfront payments have declined over the last 3 deals;

Indivior - March 2018 - upfront $10m - total deal value $294m
Sanofi - April 2021 - upfront €7m - total deal value €414m
AZ - November 2022 - upfront £2m - total deal value £402m

I'd argue that the lukewarm market reaction today is due to the tiny upfront (~0.5% deal value), you wonder whether it even comes close to paying for the R&D that's gone into the development of the programme.

They’ve got debt of £250m though, if anything below board has happened then they’ll very likely be in breach of covenants and up sh*t creek. Fridays statement definitely has similarities to REVB’s 2nd Aug RNS which basically said nothing was wrong but the auditors needed longer to complete the audit. 4 months later the CEO has gone and there is no sign of it coming back from suspension. Wouldn’t surprise me at all so see a similar chain of events play out here.

Exactly. Ultimately, this is a listed company that is effectively paying dividends with taxpayers money, so all parts of its operation should be subject to the utmost scrutiny to ensure everything is as it should be. Enhanced audit measures should be the norm.

It’ll be very interesting to see how things unfold over the next few weeks, as per Twitter the shorter has got more information lined up for release after Home issue their response…

https://twitter.com/AIMhonesty/status/1595859460144218114

"As we @viceroyresearch write to the M&G board & their compliance. We hear reports from market participants the portfolio manager has barely done any DD or considered the risks. Is #MandG going full @Wirecard ****** #DWS?"

From the digging I've done here this appears to be a mess of epic proportions.

I mean it wasn't under the radar for me, it's just a bargepole stock until they provide evidence of how they plan to fund the plant construction

"Initial capital cost of GBP216 (US$300) million;"

That's 10x the current market cap...

Money doesn't grow on trees.

Marlowe look very much like a company that has been caught by the outgoing tide. Gross debt of £176m + associated interest, significant restructuring costs, deferred consideration and a seemingly insatiable appetite for more acquisitions = a financial mess.

Enterprise value is still over £700m, net cash generated from operations of £2.7m is lower than the £3.1m in HY21 and significantly lower than £5.5m in H221. It’s unattractive to me.

When the share price is up and the majority of trades are reported as 'sells' logic tells you that they were in fact buys...

I suspect this will get squeezed at some point in the coming weeks, the equity value vs cash balance is now very favourable...

Brilliant RNS which markedly increases the likelihood of EXR exceeding revenue forecasts for 2023 onwards as well as being another huge endorsement for the company. Now we just need to see similar agreements from other launch partners such as KPMG US and we may get a bit of new interest around here...

One of the founders selling ~2m shares at all time lows isn’t really what the doctor ordered… I do wonder whether they’ve bitten off more than they can chew here?

Definitely not a pump and dump, it's also been NT to buy even 1000 shares for the last 20 minutes. I think the market makers are desperate for sellers and are walking the price down to try and trick people who bought the rise and haven't done any research yet. HARL raised £6m just after acquiring H&W in December 2019 at an equity valuation of £36m, so to be trading at an equity valuation of £30m today is clearly nonsense... I suspect this re-rates back towards 50p over the next few months, it's become a strategically valuable company overnight with that news.

Will be a game changer if DGR are out, worth remembering that we were trading at 25p on the day of the Piedmont deal back in July 2021... fast forward nearly 18 months and it's not even doubled despite the operational progress and the underlying commodity increasing in value by over 1000%... crazy.