Member Info for ShearClass

Listed at £22.5m market cap back in 2017, this equates to 40p today which shows how undervalued this currently is. Was dropped on tiny volume last year!

Got to say this is the most deluded thread in AIM, you cannot be serious talking about 10p targets given the last two RNS’s. I’d imagine any II that was considering the placing is thinking twice now, and that can’t be a good thing for TRX.

Bruce, you need to look at the trades timestamped before and after, not the bid and ask that LSE states as they are automated and will state the bid/ask when the trade is published.

http://******************/data/show_trades.php?search=CIR&date=27-01-2020

The trade prior was at 2.01pm at 27.55p, the one after at 2.27pm was at 27.87p.

So a huge buy at well above the ask at that time.

Scooter, there were no huge sells near the end? The 535k is a delayed buy above the ask, it was the reason for the first rise above 28p. Just because it’s marked as a sell doesn’t mean it is, you need to look at the time stamp and then compare to the trades at that point in time. Nevertheless I agree with your conclusion of buy, buy, buy, it’s what the II’s have been doing.

New chairman has 4.3m options that he can only exercise when the SP stays above 62.4p for 30 consecutive days, I’d say that’s pretty well aligned to shareholders? See 6th December RNS

Re. Free float, it’s around 12%. They had to move to AIM from the main market last year as it fell below 25% and its decreased further in recent months. The current significant shareholders are as follows;

Circassia Significant Holdings;
Richard Griffiths - 28.61%
AstraZeneca- 18.9%
Lombard - 10.29%
Oryx - 9.33%
Neptune - 4.77%
Invesco - 4.17%
CIP Merchant Capital - 3.4%
Touchstone Innovations (IP Group) -2.99%
Aviva - 2.6%
Adams - 0.82%
Directors - 2%

Total 87.88%

Invesco almost certainly out, but no TR1 yet, not sure if we’ll get one as they were below 5% and based internationally?

And the 2.75m, 1.25m etc. If that’s the end of Invesco then with a free float of 12% this is going to quickly re-rate back to a sensible valuation. It was 52p this time last year with a declining cash pile & no FDA approval for Duaklir. Revenues are now 30% higher & almost at EBITDA breakeven, yet the market cap has halved, this anomaly will close in the coming weeks & months IMO.

Some genuine questions for the fanatics to ponder;

If the business model is so fantastic, why didn’t they raise a significant amount equity at 50p plus last year instead of getting a high interest loan from Riverfort?

Surely if cash flows are so reliable any number of institutions would be interested in investing £10m at this level? Pay off the debt and not worry about raising ever again.

If it’s such a steal at 20p, why have no directors bought shares in the last week? Indeed no director has bought since last June...

“Whats changed to warrant such a drop?”

They are running out of money... what do you expect the SP to do?

You can’t blame the current situation on Woodford, if the company was performing an II would have bought the link stake months ago.

Would be a delight if this was to revisit 0.5p as it did in November - the longer they leave the placing the lower it’ll go IMO. The market doesn’t like uncertainty, and it’s there in abundance here.

What are you on about Smokingjoe, wouldn’t sell at 500% - you’ll be out within 5 minutes of the opening bell this morning!

The financing issues & the fact they still can’t meet demand because they can’t refit the new facility are the dominant factors in this RNS, however I completely agree with people who have bought in at 1p and below and want to hold, as if there is a placing they should still be in profit.

My opinion is that this was a gift at 0.5 - 1p, but buying at current levels is dangerous as they clearly are running out of cash. Each to their own, but I’ve no desire to buy again until they have recapitalised.

Great ramping, the reality is they need cash...

“The Company's cash balance as at 31 October 2019 was $9.3 million including $0.6 million of drawn RCF. Following the Repayment, the Company will have cash of approximately $3.7 million including $0.7 million of the drawn revolver and as at 31 October 2019 the business had access to a further $1.1 million of the RCF based on the available inventory and receivables at that time.

The Company estimates that, following the Repayment, it currently has sufficient working capital until at least the end of March 2020. The Board is currently considering the funding requirements, and further announcements will be made at the appropriate time.“

Ha, pull the other one JRlomax! From the November RNS;

“The Company estimates that, following the Repayment, it currently has sufficient working capital until at least the end of March 2020. The Board is currently considering the funding requirements, and further announcements will be made at the appropriate time.”

I’d say it’s fairly certain that there will be an equity raise in the next month as they aren’t going to take it to the wire. What price will they raise at? You’re ****ing into the wind if you try and guess IMO.

I’m sure that all of you are aware that TRX has to raise $5m equity funding before they can access the second tranche of funding from Midcap?

From June 4th 2019 RNS;

“b) Tranche Two, to be drawn between February and April 2020, contingent upon $5.0 million net equity proceeds and subject to agreed revenue targets for the from dCELL and BioRinse product sales;”

What price will they raise the £4m equity at? This is firmly on my watchlist, but I wouldn’t invest here let alone top up before they conclude this funding & gain access to the second tranche of loan funding. After all, it would be classic AIM behaviour if this recent rise from 1p is solely to aid the forward selling of placing shares...

“and if any of you had the right tools you would see that the bid is falling”

I see that turned out well, enjoy buying back the ones you sold at 24.98 at 25.5+ on Monday morning, but don’t wait too long or they’ll be at 30+

Arsenal, you are without question one of the stupidest posters I have seen in my time on LSE. You have shares here but can’t seem to understand that Invesco are selling & multiple institutions are buying? The big trades at 25p aren’t dumps, they are shares being exchanged between Invesco & II’s. If you had any common sense you would realise that the bid would not be rising if someone was dumping!

Exactly as I expected - they’ve constantly harped on about running more events than planned but until today always claimed revenues would be in line, low and behold they aren’t!

The revenue forecast was for £6.6m, so this is a big miss of 17%. It also makes me laugh that they claim 2018 revenues were £4.9m when in the research note below they are shown at £5.4m. You cannot simply remove revenue from the prior year to show growth.

http://www.livecompanygroup.com/downloads/LVCG-Shard-research%5B1%5D.pdf

Avoid IMO

The science has huge potential, the problem with Avacta is the way management run the commercial side of the business. Last January the share price hit 49p off the back of the LG collaboration. A smart company would have raised funds at this level to minimise dilution/maximise positive sentiment. Not Avacta. Instead they watched the share price fall throughout the year, despite knowing that they would need to raise more money. Come October they raised £9m at 15p, a massive 70% below the year high. Not a company I’d want to invest in if I valued my capital, there are far better options on the Nasdaq that have more potential & are run in shareholders interests.

Completely agree Fairdealer. Seaking nobody cares if you buy GSK or don’t want to buy Circassia because you can’t find out when the final results are. This is the CIR board and the general consensus both here and in the wider market is that we are significantly undervalued, so we are all very happy holding and confident that fair value (50p+) will out over the next few months.

Time in the market is almost always better than timing the market, and a lot less tiring than constantly trading shares for £360!

I’m posting my thoughts having done some research this evening - is that ok? You’ve been ramping this one hard since the RNS & I’m guessing you got spiked at 45p?

- Invesco are selling down in a lot of pharma holdings as they need to raise cash to meet fund redemptions. Highly likely they will sell the rest.

- Link are responsible for selling Woodford holdings to raise cash so that money can be returned to investors & his fund can be wound up - they aren’t speculating on shares.

- Yes pharma’s burn cash, but I wasn’t aware just how high the burn rate was here until I reviewed the cash flow statement in the interim results - £27m operating cash burn for 6 months is massive.

You are right that Woodford/Invesco present opportunities, but timing it right is vital - ETX, TRX, CIR are perfect examples of this.