Member Info for ShearClass

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/investing/article-7882291/amp/SMALL-CAP-SHARE-IDEAS-Circassia-Pharmaceuticals-one-recovery-portfolio-sales-pick-up.html

Jester16, how is the bank fully loaded?

Closed equivalent to 35p on Nasdaq, so expect a drop tomorrow. I wouldn’t invest here at present due to Invesco & Link selling down 37% of the company + Mereo need to raise significant funds this year - they burned through £27m of cash in the half year to June 19, so may have between £5-10m remaining at present. Once they raised funds & have no overhang it may be interesting.

Ouch, shocking Q4 figures & a delay to peak season - if there was record rainfall in September/October surely this should have been mentioned in their October update?

Assuming that the rest of the Invesco holding is purchased by Instis (the last 5% has), then I think we’re in a great spot. I’d say the combination of circumstances here are pretty rare, and the fact CIR aren’t a penny share will attract more sophisticated private investors. 46k shares is a decent holding, but no doubt there will be a number of people with >100k, so it won’t take many new buyers to move this a lot higher. I’m fascinated to see how the next 6 months unfolds!

hTTps://m.marketscreener.com/CIRCASSIA-PHARMACEUTICALS-16012085/company/

The above link shows all current significant shareholders in CIR & has credibility as they have already added Merchant Capital’s 3.4% holding. Invesco will almost certainly decrease from 11.9% to 8.5% post the Merchant Capital share transfer.

A couple of sub 3% holders I was unaware of;
- Touchstone Innovations (now owned by IP Group) have 2.99%
- Aviva have 2.6%
- HSBC in their capacity as a market maker have 1.87%

Full listing;

R Griffiths: 28.6%
AstraZeneca - 18.9%
Invesco - 8.5%
Oryx - 8%
Lombard Odier - 5.1%
Neptune - 4.77%
Merchant Capital - 3.4%
Touchstone Innovations - 2.99%
Aviva - 2.6%
HSBC - 1.87%
Adams - 0.82%

Total : 85.55% - 321m shares

Directors :

Steven Harris - 5.95m - 1.58%
Rod Hafner - 900,544 - 0.24%
Garry Watts - 477,340 - 0.12%
F Granata - 312,500 - 0.08%
Jonathan Ems - 300,000 - 0.08%

Total : 2.11% - 7.94m

Total shares in issue:

375,189,530

Held by II’s & Director; 87.7%

PI Free float : 12.3% - 46.1m shares

For perspective, that means that just 1000 private investors with an average holding of 46k shares each could own the entire free float of Circassia. If any further II wants to try and buy in once Invesco clear then good luck to them as the price will sky rocket.

The following article is from back in August, and very relevant after today’s news;

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/masterinvestor.co.uk/equities/why-im-buying-shanta-and-keeping-an-eye-on-kefi-but-avoiding-hummingbird/amp/

Since the update on 25th November newsflow has followed the specified timetable, and you would have to ask why ANS would sign all of the documentation & not transfer the cash (especially in the current gold environment!)

At 1.6p this is a steal and will re-rate significantly upon receipt of the $9.5m - 5p is quoted in the article, but that was at a lower gold price (albeit with around 10% less shares in issue).

Load up & hold IMO

Looks like a sell to me Fallingknife - at 12 noon on the second buys were priced at 3.72, and at 2.30 they were 3.74, in between this we have the 760k trade at 3.65, why would someone get a discount on a trade well above market size? Far more likely to be a worked sell IMO.

I await Fridays update with interest...

11k of revenue is comical, whoever the institution was that funded £2.1m @ 7.2p back in May needs to severely reassess their investment criteria, this is heading for decimals IMO.

Latest broker forecast from July 19 on research tree has total production at 46k for 2020 and resulting PBT is €2.6m @€506 average selling price. Increase the selling price to €700 and you have an additional €9m revenue, so if costs remain stable, DKL could reach nearly £10m of PBT.

hTTps://*********************/companies/uk/agriculture-fishing/dekeloil-public/research/vsa-capital/tough-fy-2018-record-production-in-h1-2019/01d71af6-70a5-45bc-a7bc-ec1d7ff33332

Even assuming some chunky exceptional costs from expanding production, they could generate £6-8m PBT next year. £7m PBT would have EPS of 1.65p.

For the more experienced investors on this board, are there any major holes in the above high level analysis ignoring the clear risk that CPO prices & production may disappoint?

Thanks for the info philpot, it’s safe to say that the price rises couldn’t have been better timed for DKL. At current levels we are making an extra $300k per 1000 tons sold, if production in Q1 matches 2019 and price remain similar then this will result in $4.5m of incremental revenue.

Hopefully the majority of this will flow through to the bottom line. If it does, I sincerely doubt DKL will still be a £15m market cap.

JL, on Tuesday you stated;

“I intend to add when monies become available in Jan. So to all holders here have a good Christmas and here's to a better year ahead for REA shareholders.”

Yet today you said;

“I will hold (not add) until the mrkt tells me in wrong.”

In the meantime, CPO has risen 8.5%... what made you change from add to hold?

Personally, with debts of £209m, no diversification, and heavy losses, I struggle to see the attraction of investing here. I think DKL has far more upside & this is reflected in the higher number of trades & resultant share price increase in the last week.

Yep, I had to buy in a small batches - closed at 37p equivalent on TSX last night so a bargain getting in at 35p first thing - big gap back to 55p so no resistance

I agree Whimax - why would you participate in a placing at 7p, which itself was a significant discount to the price when announced, to then sell at a loss? Also there were only 19m shares issued, at 4% of shares in issue it’s hardly significant - for context there were 43m shares traded on the day of the times leak... Below 7p is a gift as far as I’m concerned.

Half year results tomorrow I reckon - MM’s have been collecting shares all week & have now dropped the bid to try and spook holders into selling - let’s see but it was December 20th last year.

Interesting to see where it ends the day. If this is an attempt to negotiate/strong arm then it’s very aggressive.

I think we can be assured by the fact that AZN are a 19% shareholder and as such I expect we will have access to some pretty mean legal counsel!

Buy low, sell high. Only a few weeks ago this hit 13.5p, since then we have had confirmation of deal talks and yet the price is now 50% lower - it’s literally 2 for the price of 1 / buy 1 share get another free! What’s not to like?

Invesco have reduced from 28% to 14% in around 6 months, with an acceleration recently, having seen them in action elsewhere I think it’s safe to say they will sell down completely. Interesting that there has been no TR1 yet for the buyer of the 12m sold on Thurs, could come this week - be nice if Lombard had increased from 5% to 8%

Arsenal, almost all none AT trades are buys - the ask moves around a lot and will continue to do so until Invesco are clear. I’d say we’ve probably got 4-6 weeks to wait until they have sold their 52m shares, then the price will rapidly recover. May happen sooner of course if another II fancies taking a chunk!

DC on a lock in - but he’ll still be getting paid around £40k per month in salary! If he truly cared about the share price he would never agree an arrangement like this IMO.