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Nope, we’ve called this one correctly I’d say... getting themselves further into the mire with debt from questionable lenders. If LVCG is so undervalued at 30p why can’t they raise £2m from an II or VC?

A few points that I think are relevant to the discussion here;

The 2018 interims were released on 20th December, so I believe we can expect them this coming week. This will no doubt provide a boost as it will objectively depict what has been a very successful year for NFX. Revenues will be shown for the Ebers collaboration + the milestone payments from Newsummit. It will be interesting to see how they present the £2m that remains outstanding in the acccounts.

Secondly, I find it incredible that anyone would sell after listening to the three interviews that stated the expected newsflow over the coming months. Yes Dan listed the items he expected and there may not be any huge news until the end of Q1, but there also has to be a high likelihood of something unexpected appearing.

A milestone payment relating to the £51m Ebers collaboration could appear at any time for example, as could a partner for rest of world for NXP001. As Dan made clear regarding the Times leak on Japan, if Nuformix were involved in any advanced discussion on other markets/products, keeping talks private is vital to negotiation. Therefore he clearly isn’t going to disclose any information in an interview!

So in summary, surprises could appear at any time - selling out because the price has fallen or because you believe news is months away is a sure fire way to miss out on a 50% - 100% markup that would be added pre market on any significant deal. And we’ve all seen how crazily fast NFX can rise on speculation alone - just look at the day of the placing when it went from 8-11p in one afternoon!

@Aerial, there must be a very large delayed sell which hasn’t been printed yet which has forced the price down. I’ve followed this since the summer, bought and sold on the spike over 4p, thought I’d take a step back and wait for the half year results which turned out to include a placing at 2p (lucky escape).

I was baffled that they only raised £600k gross at an 18% discount when half year cash burn was £1m. They did state at the time that it was a small placing and that more funding would be required in due course, but I didn’t understand giving such a large discount for a tiny placing - surely they would have known what their cash runway was at the start of 2019 so they could raise a decent amount of cash at 3p+?

Communication has also been shocking, literally dead since the placing in September. Sorry to long term holders, if they raise more at this level then it’s an awful long was back to 3/4p.

Nice delayed 600k buy above the ask 5 mins before the close - a sign that this is very undervalued at sub 7p!

It seems that Invesco are selling out of almost everything that was co-owned with Woodford, regardless of potential. Agree that it’ll be good to get the holdings RNS to confirm what they’ve reduced their holdings to. Hopefully sub 10% but likely still a bit higher.

Rubbishinvestor, you are surely aware that Invesco have been selling down their shares for months - they had 28.35% back in June and were down to 17.41% at the end of November, so they still had 65m or so remaining. I’ll be very surprised if the 25m or so sold today weren’t from them.

I see this as the final act in Circassia’s escape from the death grip employed by the heinous Woodford & Invesco combination who at this time last year owned nearly 60% of the company.

If it wasn’t for the fact that Lombard, Oryx & two directors had bought significant amounts recently I could understand worrying over the daily movements. Once Invesco are clear I expect a sharp move up to 30p+ and then a sustained recovery to 80p or so. The market makers want to spook PI’s into selling their shares cheaply, give it a few months and things will look a lot different IMO.

Yep, being held here at present - that 500k could well be another director buy...

Tremendous summary JAdam, thank you for posting that. Completely agree about it being a perfect storm for a rerate, great to be in at this level.

Pumped or dumped, useful for historic trades etc.

JAdam, the other two trades for the same amount were a cancellation & a reprint, there was only one buy for 477k. See data below;

http://******************/data/show_trades.php?search=CIR&date=05-12-2019

Still brilliant news and hugely undervalued. Also expect Ian Johnson to buy in before Christmas.

FSJ, I genuinely think you’ll be sitting here saying the same thing at 5p, which is where this will end up if they deepen their relationship with Riverfort & don’t hit their targets. It just makes the high salaries & bonuses taken by Ciclitera look even more reckless.

Invesco are selling down holdings in all Pharma stocks that Woodford funds owned/own shares in, regardless of future prospects. I think this will follow a similar path to Tissue Regenix, the market makers will drop the share aggressively until the find a level where there is buying interest, then Invesco will sell their 21%. For me, that level would be sub 5p given that this is heavily loss making & will need more cash soon. No interest at 12p today, probably fall to 10p tomorrow. All IMO

From the half year report;

Cash balance of £19.8 million at 31 August 2019 (£21.0 million at 30 June 2019)

· Net cash outflow expected to dramatically reduce during H2 2019 compared to H1 2019

· Key revenue drivers in place (NIOX® direct sales in China; Duaklir® launch imminent; Tudorza® full control; LungFit PH3 (previously AirNOvent) launch planning)

· Full year 2019 revenue expectation £60 million - £65 million

· Focus on cost control to achieve positive EBITDA on approximately £75 million net annual sales

—————————————-

First half sales were £27m, if they hit the mid range of their 2019 sales target of £62.5m, they will have done £35.5m second half. Annualised that is £71m. If they hit the top end of £65m, then £38m second half and £76m annualised. So in summary, no they don’t need a placing & yes, this is hugely undervalued at present!

I don’t find it weird at all, the share price has been de-rating to a more realistic level for the past 6 months as more and more PI’s see though the hyperbole and marketing spin of Ciclitera.

Simple question;

‘63 events secured for 2019, against a projected target of 60, with further events expected to be contracted before the year end’

If the number of events is ahead of plan, why aren’t revenues?

I’m inclined to think they will get near the 2019 revenue target but operating costs will be higher than planned & they will make a sizeable loss before tax.

Ciclitera meanwhile will have taken a full year salary of over £400k and I’ll be surprised if there is no bonus.

None of the deals announced have any commercial detail & until the market can see clear evidence of growth in profit before tax & positive cash flow, the share price will stay at this level. If they have to raise more cash (entirely likely IMO) then the price will go lower. If they miss their targets in the heavily weighted second half then the share price will go much lower.

https://www.trinitydelta.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Tissue-Regenix-Update-131118.pdf

Tissue Regenix has signed an additional agreement with Arthrex for pan-European distribution of its BioRinse portfolio, which follows a US agreement signed in March 2018. This provides Tissue Regenix with a significant partner in two key geographies. Arthrex, a global leader in the field of sports medicine, specialises in the marketing of innovative products. Efforts will initially focus on the UK, before gradually launching in other European countries as approvals are gained. The extension of the collaboration should generate material sales growth in the coming years; but, to be conservative, we are maintaining our valuation at £245m (20.9p a share).

Update 13 November 2018

This truly is bargain of the century - all thanks to Woodford and a lack of liquidity/interest in this share until 3.30pm yesterday!

The basic premise of the Stockopedia article is that IDP have been capitalising costs related to ‘customer list’ creation, around £2.2m on the balance sheet at last year end. These are basically marketing costs that they haven’t expensed. The article concludes that this is a red flag and to avoid, in particular as there have been large director sales in the past 18 months.

I agree with Graham Neary - this treatment of costs looks very suspect, and if the costs had been expensed profit would have only been been £500k.

I certainly wouldn’t feel comfortable holding this for anything more than a day trade.

Heading for £500m market cap by the time we list on the NASDAQ/NYSE next year.

I thought it was worth highlighting the impact that a similar deal to the one mooted between Nuformix and Kissei has had on Silence Therapeutics;

https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/SLN/silence-therapeutics-silence-collaboration-with-mallinckrodt-rk337a24k7rvubs.html

The collaboration was signed on 18th July, their market cap at the time was £60m and they received a $20m upfront payment. Three months down the line their market cap is now £281m and rising.

I’d expect Nuformix to rise at a similar rate if/when they complete their deal with Kissei. A £281m market cap would equate to a 60p per share here.

Super interesting read...the figures quoted make more sense now - if NFX have cracked Tranislast then having rights to that platform will be hugely valuable for Kissei...

“It has been reported that tranilast has the ability to induce or enhance neurogenesis and, therefore, could be used as an agent to treat neuronal conditions such as cerebral ischemia, glaucoma, multiple sclerosis, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis, Alzheimer's disease, neurodegenerative trinucleotide repeat disorders, neurodegenerative lyosomal storage diseases, spinal cord injury and trauma, dementia, schizophrenia and peripheral neuropathy (A. Schneider. EP2030617).”

“Tranilast, as discussed above, is known to possess anti-allergic, anti-fibrotic, anti-inflammatory, anti-tumor, neurogenesis enhancing and angiogenesis inhibitory properties. The tranilast complexes and cocrystals of the invention may then be used, in the same way as tranilast, to treat diseases, disorders and conditions, such as those discussed above, that are associated with such properties. Accordingly, the invention relates to the method of treating such a disease, disorder, or condition comprising the step of administering to a patient in need thereof a therapeutically effective amount of a tranilast complex or cocrystal of the invention or of administering to a patient in need thereof a therapeutic composition containing a tranilast complex or cocrystal of the invention.”

I think £10m market cap is a realistic near term target (3-6 months). Confirmation of profitability via the final results in Q1 2020 will be a major milestone for the re-rate IMO.