Member Info for ShearClass

All it states is that the Genesig test can be used on Roche equipment? Nothing I can see about any partnership.

Sadly it looks like Roche & Thermofisher have usurped Novacyt in the US. The fact that Thermofisher received the emergency FDA approval WITHIN 8 HOURS of application is unbelievable, Novacyt applied at the end of January and still nothing, there has be a fundamental reason for this, and it certainly doesn’t look to be related to the efficacy of the NCYT test. Is it market cap? Cost?

Guys you do realise that more than one company can get FDA approval? I’d say it’s positive that any commercial company has been given permission, and also that by default that actually increases our chances of getting it. Also there are 300m people in America, very much doubt Roche can supply all of them!

I must say I’m baffled by the performance today, I guess you could say the RNS contained no out and out surprises either positive or negative? Need media coverage to reinforce the position NCYT are in and move this up to the £1.50 level that it was at 2 weeks ago, it’s madness to be sitting 25% below that with the developments we’ve had in the meantime!

No worries guys, I knew I’d get a negative reception for trying to constructively provide an opinion - I like BMN & have followed the story for a number of years and I’m surprised as anyone to see the price down here. I’ll not post anything further & hopefully you turn out to be right!

@Sanchez, all I said was wait and see? That is the point, all and sundry on here (yourself being one of the worst) encourage buying at all times, no matter what. As a shareholder you should be well aware of the imminent redt news and it is beyond doubt a risk factor right now. Why buy more shares before knowing how things are going to play out there? There may not be a placing, but the point is that nobody knows right now, or at least they shouldn’t!

IMO touched the forthcoming placing price of 10.5p this morning - RNS on redt funding should arrive before Monday 16th. Of course if the redt funding falls through that will also have a negative impact on BMN. In my opinion, hold if you hold, hold off if you don’t, all will be clearer come this time next week!

It’s the textbook sell on news - I’m assuming they didn’t open it higher due to lack of media coverage at present - once this arrives we should see an upsurge in demand.

Media coverage will kick off this morning, traders and short terms selling out - they’ll buy back in this afternoon & tomorrow. I’m not selling for a few p more than yesterday after that update!

@Moneygecko, capacity is now 24m tests per annum, an increase of 1000%, at £6 per test that is £144m revenue (and far more importantly, 24m people diagnosed quickly & accurately ).

IMO if they can be agile enough to increase capacity that quickly then they could certainly do so again if required to double it etc. They appear to be executing a well planned contingency plan of their own and the product is proving to be world class.

The key point that I made in the early days about first mover advantage is so relevant for PHE. NCYT submitted their test for approval around 6 weeks ago, any competitor would have the same if not longer wait due to the chaos that is developing. And once they are using our test, they aren’t going to switch easily - in fact if NCYT can make the test faster than 2 hours whilst maintaining 100% accuracy then it may become the default test kit in the UK...

A magnificent update, written with a combination of factual evidence to inform & underlying positivity to reassure everyone that NCYT (Primerdesign) is at the forefront of tackling Covid-19.

So many positives, however the one that particularly stands out is the PHE approval; this could make national news given then huge improvement in testing time. IMO ashare price of £5+ cannot be out of the question now given the strategic position the business is in & the gigantic market for accurate, fast tests.

BBN, thanks for reply and glad I could help clarify that. Re. Business rationale - forward vertical integration? What if BMN have designs to acquire Avalon / Redt down the line? What if nobody else is prepared to invest at present so BMN has to invest the full £24m to avoid the deal collapsing? Normally I’d agree with your logic, but there is clearly a reason BMN shares have fallen >30% since Monday mid morning.

@BBN, you haven’t accounted for the shares issued to Avalon as part of the merger - there will be approx 4.4b shares in issue according to my workings

https://polaris.brighterir.com/public/redt_energy/news/rns/story/xl0yj7x

“To drive the growth and development of the Enlarged Group, provide working capital, and take advantage of the substantial opportunity presented by the Merger, the merged business intends to raise at least £24m ($30m) of new funds (the "Fundraising") as part of the Merger. VSA Capital, redT's financial adviser and broker, redT and Avalon have received substantial preliminary support for the Fundraising from a strong new strategic investor that intends to make a cornerstone investment in the merged business, as well as from existing institutional investors in redT and both existing and certain proposed new investors in Avalon. The Fundraising is expected to be at a price not exceeding 1.65p per share subject to finalising terms and may include some interim financing while the RTO process is underway. It is expected that the Merger and the Fundraising will be inter-conditional and complete at the same time.”

- The strong new strategic investor is almost certainly BMN.

- The interim loan made by BMN of £3.9m made in November was interim funding, it does not count towards the £24m package.

- As a cornerstone investor, how much of the £24m will BMN contribute?

- How will this investment be funded given BMN have used their cash reserves on Vanchem, Afritin & the interim loan?

Re. BMN Ownership in the new Avalon/Redt business;

Current Redt shares in issue; 951m

Shares to be issued in Avalon share for share deal; $37.5m / 0.0165 = 1,748m assuming an exchange rate of $1.30

New shares issued to be issued in £24m funding round; 1,454m

New shares issued to BMN for interim loan; £3.9m / 0.0165= 236m

Total shares in issue upon relisting;

951m + 1748m + 1454m + 236m = 4389m

For BMN to own 20% they need 878m shares

878m - 236m already owned = 642 * 0.0165 = £10.59m

So BMN need to invest;

£10.59m for a 20% stake

£3.33m for a 10% stake

Nothing for a 5% stake - they already have 5.36% from the interim funding

@ColonelDrake - or they just figured it out with the timing of Monday’s RNS & the REDT relisting...

Just figured it out - REDT/Avalon are scheduled to re-list on 16th March, but need to raise around £30m in finance to recapitalise - it appears odds on that BMN are going to participate - they’ve already loaned them £6m and became further involved on Monday.

So the question is how much are BMN putting in? Share price movement suggests this will be via a placing...

4 x £20k & 4 x £10k buys since 10am. IMO now is the perfect time to load up & someone is doing just that... - as for anyone saying it’s getting better, I wish it was but that plainly isn’t the case - certainly in Europe & America.

Do you even know what low free float means? As a clue, it doesn’t have anything to do with the number of shares in issue...

9inchnail, you do realise this is primarily traded on Euronext which has driven the rise? As for liquidity being poor, that is the stupidest thing I’ve seen written on here, and that’s saying something!

Completely disagree regarding talk of manipulation today, there is clearly a large holder selling out - is this a PI who has a large holding or one of the entities that BMN has paid consideration via shares? Likely below the 3% threshold so we’ll never find out.

Unlike the Erongo overhang in 2018, market sentiment is depressed & as a result there aren’t enough buys to absorb the large sells, so eventually the SP falls back.

Also interesting that this latest batch of selling has coincided with the announcement of a closer relationship with Redt - does a significant stakeholder have serious concerns here?

IMO what BMN needs is a third party equity investment similar to the Bosch involvement with Ceres Power or Linde at ITM power. A recognised third party investing £20-£50m would be the statement of intent that would re-rate the share price to the £500m market cap level.

Ha, “into the bottom drawer” has to be top of my list for disliked BB sayings - effectively burying your head in the sand. Sub 10p will be here soon IMO, a heavily indebted, loss making events company is the last place I’d want my cash in the current circumstances.

Advfn is your best bet for accurate volume & trade stats as Alfacomp said earlier. Another delayed buy for 750k at 14.25p has just rolled through taking total volume up to 19.6m. Looks like a distressed seller ditched a few million from 1pm onwards dropping the price back down from 16p, not really surprising given the drops elsewhere today.

I don’t expect the current prices to last long - hopefully overnight Asian markets will kick start a bounce.