Member Info for ShearClass

neil13, on 17th May you said : "A vaccine will be out in 4 months , the demand for testing will plummet"

If you actually believe that then it suggests your IQ is probably lower than your shoe size. When the positive sales update arrives, the price could easily be £5+ again, and your short will cost you a lot of money.

“It must be a large short imo because of the way the sp has been held.”

Swervington are you serious?! You think one PI short can hold the share price of a £200m market cap company, pmsl that is true comedy gold.

He said he had a target of 270, believed it was overvalued at present but nothing more than that. The TW stuff is pure click bait, it’s where they make their money & are seemingly intouchable for now, but their articles and attacks certainly borderline.

Yourgene news is excellent for us, clearly they wouldn’t be wasting resources if there was no market - it suggests NCYT are selling everything they are producing and more...

Re. Volume and Euronext, things haven’t been the same since the TV appearance and subsequent failure of the French government to choose NCYT. This has killed momentum in France at present. Matter of time until it returns though IMO

Anders I’m really not sure what’s so difficult to understand here? The government release says kits, we sell kits. In each kit is 96 tests. 3.8m tests to address a 102m population is sensible, 40,000 is pathetic and wouldn’t last a couple of days.

In addition, 40,000 tests in a population of 102m won’t even scratch the surface - almost certain it’s 3.5m.

The press release clearly stated test kits, so why would it be tests? It’s more than likely they’ve negotiated a deal based on volume so the price will be lower than usual. I very much doubt we’ll get specifics for this or any other large deals as providing price per test undermines negotiations with the hundreds of other parties they’ll be dealing with.

Yes looks to be the info RNS’d on 29th April...

@Oldernotwiser, how about you do your own research and come to a conclusion rather than offering disparaging remarks that aren't accurate? They are very much on track for commercialisation, which again you would know if you had done any research. Huge upside to come here as far as I'm concerned.

Can anyone explain why this has opened down 5% the last two days? Shorts trying to control the price?

I pity whoever bought 1m at 1.03 today, talk about bad timing. This placing was well advertised but I’m still shocked at 0.25p, and the primary bid being open for 4 hours is comical - I may have been temped but then again they could easily be back at 0.25p in a month.

Will watch with interest tomorrow - curious to see where it opens...

Yep, link on the website, RNS to follow in the morning. Looking very good indeed here.

https://www.ekfdiagnostics.com/ekf-covid-19-novel-sample-collection-kit-contracts.html

"EKF Diagnostics announces it has secured new contracts for the manufacture and supply of a novel, patented sample collection device which allows COVID-19 samples to be rapidly inactivated in the collection tube, avoiding contamination and preserving RNA without need for refrigeration. To support the increase in COVID-19 testing globally, a safe and easy sample collection and transport mechanism is essential, this is provided by the PrimeStore® MTM sample collection device."

A really solid day, sharp move up followed by consolidation at the new level. Doubt the next newsflow will be far off given they are working night and day on the test...

Crikey, AVCT is not an antibody test! Although I'd hazard a guess that more than half of those buying shares have no idea what type of test it is either. It's beyond risky, they don't even have a prototype yet, nevermind regulatory approval. Their chickens will come home to roost at some point :)

More than happy to hold here, ethically NCYT are doing exactly the right thing in not flaunting sales figures - there should be no glory from profiting from a virus like this. Graham strikes me as the model professional, and has been nothing except a credit to company, country and shareholders. Long may that continue!

Will have to do some research on the dividend in specie, however it's worth reading the EKF RNS releases around the time they divested RENX. Each holder received 1 share in RENX for each 21.8 held in EKF and there was a 6 month lockup period.

In the meanwhile, RENX is breaking out, and blue skies lie ahead with no resistance :)

Yep completely agree. I'm sure we'll learn more about pricing etc very soon given the following quote from Bio-Techne: "The Bio-Techne, Mount Sinai and Kantaro teams are working around the clock to develop this test, and we are on track to achieve in approximately eight weeks what would typically take 18 months or more."

The Mount Sinai relationship makes this & EKF Diagnostics a unique pair to own (as well as the forthcoming IPO of FractaDX).

Re. NCYT, the hullaballoo there is nothing compared to that at Avacta... Their global distribution agreement announced yesterday with a company setup on 22nd April by the founders of Boohoo & Zeus Capital compared to the one signed by RENX is like night vs day. I know which one I'd rather be invested in!

As for AZN / Oxford, it's incredible in terms of scale, however I'm just not sure how they think the timeline is anywhere near achievable. A rushed vaccine could be more dangerous than nothing - and they are currently testing it on healthy 18-55 year olds... a long way to go IMO, but takes the pressure off the politicians for a while.

Thanks for the valuation attempt, my thoughts as follows;

- £10 per test would be extremely cheap given they are currently retaining at between £70-£150 in the UK (see ORPH RNS from earlier this week)

- I’d be surprised if Bio Techne get 40% of the revenue for distribution, they are a huge entity so will have had strong bargaining power but I’d expect them to get nearer 20%. That leaves 80% of the revenue to Mount Sinai / Renx, of which Renx get 25%. So £2 revenue for each test, if they only sell for £10.

- Crucially, they state that initial capacity is 10m per month, nothing to say they can’t scale to 15/20/25m as demand will exist around the world and they have a $10b distributor on board.

Beyond the above, their is the NASDAQ listing which will also catalyse the share price. Plus the spin off of FractalDX, which I doubt they would bother doing at an IPO valuation of below £50m? That alone could be worth another £1 to existing holders.

This truly feels like a hidden gem, a wonderful opportunity.

This is going to be absolutely huge, so many amazing quotes in this press release from Bio-Techne.

https://www.nasdaq.com/press-release/bio-techne-and-kantaro-biosciences-announce-partnership-to-develop-and-scale

"Through Kantaro's partnership with Bio-Techne, we look forward to bringing this extremely high-quality test to every corner of the globe, so that COVID-19 can be monitored and isolated."

“As the world leader in ELISA assays, Bio-Techne has substantial capacity and the ability to scale production levels to support much of our nation's needs.”

“Initial kit production capacity is expected to enable laboratories to conduct in excess of 10 million tests monthly in July, scaling to higher capacity in subsequent months.”

@Seadoc, you state you are short here. Can I ask what your rationale is & rough target price?

And what would make you change you mind & go long?

If anyone wants a benchmark for our market cap, look at EKF Diagnostics at present. Valued at £238m and expecting to report £10m of profit after tax this year, on £25m of revenue. It's share price has risen as it has exceptional Covid-19 revenues of $5m per month or so. Compare that to NCYT and think where we will go once the figures are released to the market. And how our long term sales will benefit from the huge cash inflow generated by our testing. Over the next couple of years I expect we'll move up steadily - no point setting a target price as we have no idea how high 2020 sales could go...

JCEP

“I think it should be considered that this distribution deal has been a long time in the making. Probably around the time of the fundraise”.

At the fundraise the market was unaware that a test was being worked on - that is the fundamental problem here! Why didn’t AVCT announce in mid March that they were working on a test????