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As soon as the Vatel shares clear there will be an immediate rise of 10-15% IMO. It's clear from watching France that there are a lot of shares on the book at around £2, buys don't really impact the share price as they are clearing this overhang, however sells cause an immediate fall because they increase the overhang...

What's really needed is 2 x RNS's in a week, or something unexpected that catches people off guard - monthly sales updates are always going to be sold into, as people anticipate waiting another month for an opportunity to take profit.

Wow, sorry to hear that LogicMoz, on what basis did you sell? Because the share price was going down? The best way to compound a loss is to sell & rainbow chase to make the loss back...

“Justify with objective facts this share's value.”

How about you justify with objective facts why it should be valued at £2 rather than £4 that ShaunP’s detailed analysis backed up on Saturday?

Not in the next hour Chrishar, but over the course of last couple of weeks & however long they decide to continue this charade, many will sell simply based on the price falling. Needs a company update really, has fallen well over 30% since the last RNS!

This is purely to shake out retail investors, no other justification for the current price - they know 50% will sell because the price is down, simples.

Nope, it wouldn’t be because the biomarkers are integral to the test - that’s clear from the description of the claim - it’s based on novel research from Joslin Diabetes Centre. So using those biomarkers in a renal test would be a clear infringement.

Don’t care if you want to believe otherwise, I’m happy with my interpretation and research and won’t be arguing any further.

The rest of your post is ill informed nonsense that I won’t give the time of day - jumping to negative conclusions to suit your argument just makes you look stupid.

I absolutely don’t want to help you, but I can’t help but defend my investment from someone deliberately misinterpreting information and trying to mislead others.

The ppv at 60% is a 50% improvement on current methods; show me a company developing a test with a higher ppv? RENX are far more likely to improve this than any competitor given the data they have access to.

Re. Affimers being used to circumvent the claim, this is clearly rubbish;

Section 1 in full;

“Detecting the presence of and measuring levels of one or more biomarkers selected from the group consisting of soluble TNF receptor type 1 (sTNFR1) and soluble TNF receptor type 2 (sTNFR2) in the subject sample with an anti-sTNFR1 antibody and/or anti-s-TNFR2 antibody and detecting binding and measuring the level of binding between sTNFR1 and the antibody and/or sTNFR2 and the antibody;
comparing the subject levels with reference levels of sTNFR1 and/or sTNFR2; and
determining whether the subject has an increased risk of developing ERFD based on the comparison of the subject levels with the reference levels, wherein the presence of sTNFR1 and/or sTNFR2 in the subject sample at levels that are higher than the reference levels indicates that the subject has an increased risk of developing ERFD;
administering a therapy to any subjects identified as having an increased risk of developing ERFD and monitoring said identified subjects for a reduction in the level of sTNFR1 and/or sTNFR2.”

How exactly would using affimers circumvent detecting specific biomarkers?

They would need to use Affimers AND detect different biomarkers, otherwise it’s clear breach of the patent!

So yes, you could detect the biomarkers with an Affimer or Aptamer or anything else, but you couldn’t determine subject risk or administer a therapy... Not a very useful test is it.

So overall I’d give you an E- for that response, you’ve got to read things in full and put them into context before jumping to conclusions...

Meh, filtering someone on a quiet board doesn’t serve much purpose, so I changed my mind. Your attitude is odious though, why would anyone want to help you when you won’t do any reading for yourself?

And no, providing financial advice, I.e ‘you should buy shares here because’ is 100% not the role of posters on a forum.

I’ll provide two links for homework so you can shut the hell up about the product being easy to copy;

1. The admission document; https://renalytixai.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/11/Renalytix_AI_plc_Admission_Document-5-November-2018.pdf

2. The patent that their global license is based on; https://patents.justia.com/patent/20200072849

If someone else can discover unique biomarkers that do a better job and get access to a huge data bank then sure it could be emulated, but they’ve got a very significant head start & IP moat

Now get reading, there’s a good lad.

“Provide useful information to other investors to help them make their decisions”

It is not the job of posters on a bulletin board to help others make financial decisions, again you are completely wrong.

Why have you decided the invest if you genuinely believe someone can copy their product so easily? Or have you done some research at last?

My question to Seadoc is as follows;

Cash in bank to end of May was €25m on £40m of sales. We don’t know the balance of payables, receivables or stock, but assume that assets outweigh liabilities (materials for 10m tests etc).

We have £80m of contracted future sales, at a minimum 50% EBITDA margin, likely to deliver another £40m of cash.

So if we stopped selling anything at the end of a June we would have around £60m of cash and no debt. Clearly we won’t stop selling at the end of May!

So with around 90p of the share price effectively in cash, why would the price continue to drift lower without clear evidence of a major sales slowdown?

I look at the current share price situation as being a part of the price discovery process, typical of what can happen after an exponential rise. At the £5.10 high reached in early April, the market cap was £350m, reported sales at this time were £17m, so clearly the share price was ahead of itself. Now we are at the other end of the spectrum; market cap of £160m with reported sales to May end of £120m. I agree with ShaunP’s excellent workings posted yesterday (thank you for that), that with current information, middle fair value of £3.94 per share / a market cap of £275m is about right.

The fact is nobody really knows how much more revenue will be generated by Covid related sales, but our regulatory approvals put us in prime position for the rest of the year versus competitors; I’m confident we’ll sell all we produce.

Looking at the bigger picture, Primer Design had a profitable history & very high gross margins prior to Covid-19. The impact of their new global standing on non Covid related sales is something I’m particularly interested in seeing; high growth here would underpin any future P/E based valuation estimates.

If 2021 non Covid related profit before tax was £10m a P/E of 25 would support a market cap of £250m, which is more than achievable given the cash resources that will be available for new product development, marketing & distribution etc.

All in all, taking a 3-24 month view (ignoring the immediate short term), it’s hard to see much downside from the current level...

Filtered. Claims to have read the investor information and yet hasn’t heard of Mount Sinai - 100% troll.

You can’t have reasoned debate with an individual who refuses to do any of their own research, yet takes a condescending ‘believe when you prove it’ attitude. And I’m not spoon feeding you by answering your questions, all the info is online. This is a quality company, the fact you think it needs to diversify shows how far off the mark you are.

Truly hilarious, the fact that they’ve achieved breakthrough device designation from the FDA & are on the verge of Nasdaq listing & you think a good computer modeller could copy their product.

If it’s so easy why don’t you set a business up & hire one of these good modellers to build the free app? Then you’ll just need to research, analyse and prove your combination of unique biomarkers work on a suitable size patient cohort (you may need access to a patient bio bank for this, could be tricky) and then successfully get the results of the process patented. Once that’s done & you’ve raised capital, you can start the regulatory process (May take you a day or two mind and a good lawyer). All in all, easy as pie.

Clearly you haven’t read their RNS’s or admission document, or you wouldn’t be asking the type of questions you are.

Oh and have a look at their CKD advisory board, I think they know a bit more than you...

Totally agree, it’s just sheer laziness to suggest that a companies product isn’t patented when all you’ve done is look at their website. This company is solid as a rock, I only wish I’d discovered it a year ago...

Wbernard, as you’re a doctor I’ll assume you are pretty smart, so I won’t spoon feed you the answer to your questions.

What I will say is that the answers are all in the companies AIM admission document & subsequent RNS communications. There are also presentations on their website that will inform you. Suffice to say their test is based on Harvard Research & is fully patented. Others won’t be able to copy it due to the patent & many other competitive advantages which you’ll discover if you do your own research.

Haha, you are deluded! HZM hit the gap on around 2nd December and went straight through it, down to 3p support, it didn’t rebound back through the support until 18th December, so you’d have had to wait 2 weeks for the rebound - rather a long time for a trader surely?

Here’s another gap for you; AVCT went from 23-31 after their first Covid RNS, why didn’t that gap ever get filled? Could it be something called sentiment?

I’ve seen Bottom argue this before on Horizonte Minerals last year, there was a gap that he insisted had to be filled at 3.48p, the price at the time was 4.50 ish. He stated that when the price filled the gap it would be a stonking buy... the price did make its way back down to 3.48p a couple of months later, the problem was that it kept going back to under 3p before rebounding. So if you bought the gap at 3.48p you’d have been 15% down before a rebound - not so clever really?

There are simply too many factors at play to put any credence in gap theory, both technical, fundamental, macro, random, sentiment, algo etc etc etc. Also where’s your edge if you follow gap theory?!

“There isn't another antibody test out there with such high sensitivity.”

Yes there are - do some more research.

The problem with buying shares here is that you might not get a sales update until the final results for 2020 are released next year!

NCYT on the shortlist for Breakthrough of the year in the European Mediscience Awards 2020:

http://www.mediscience-event.co.uk/awards/shortlist

Midcap of the future in the making...