Member Info for ShearClass

CS, why are you back on this board again?

“If you can spit on a spot and the test works then that would be different?”

If it was so bloody easy to create this type of test why hasn’t it been done already? All the big boys are looking for a solution but quite simply the combination of accuracy, speed & cost is very difficult to achieve. The accuracy of rapid POC antigen tests is especially problematic, and when you are trying to contain a pandemic, accuracy is more important than speed for most countries...

https://www.manilatimes.net/2020/06/01/public-square/primerdesigns-genesig-qrt-pcr-test-kit-now-available/728451/

“Knowing the important role that Covid-19 testing kits play in containing the spread of the virus, Health Solutions Enterprises Inc. (HealthSolutions) — the leading importer, distributor, and marketer of high-quality medical equipment and supplies in the Philippines — has brought to the Philippines the Genesig qRT PCR (quantitative reverse transcriptase polymerase chain reaction) kit for Covid-19”.

A benchmark for the NCYT share price has to be Co Diagnostics, who are exporting their PCR test to 50 countries & 15 states. Covid test revenue to May 14th was $18m @ a gross margin of 72%.

Their pre corona market cap was $30m, and they currently sit at $490m. Interestingly, prior to releasing their Q1 results in early May they sat at $270m market cap, a remarkably similar to the current NCYT cap.

We know our EBITDA margin is over 50%, and this is effectively our profit before tax as we have very little depreciation or interest charge. So gross margins are likely to be similar to the 72% reported by Co Diagnostics.

In conclusion, I expect our market cap to be > £400m once we release confirmation of earnings & profit margins, hopefully in the July trading update if not before.

We certainly aren’t overvalued by any stretch when compared to Co Diagnostics though, especially considering our revenue is much higher than theirs.

Here is a link to their Q1 results ;

http://codiagnostics.com/co-diagnostics-releases-prepared-remarks-q1-2020-conference-call/

@Quickdraw, the sales push only happened from the 27th onwards and coincided with the EM Analytical contract below;

https://www.lr.org/en-gb/latest-news/0526-em-analytical-certified-by-lr-in-just-20-days/

IMO the comments about reserving capacity for France would have been from future production capacity once it was scaled up to 8m, very much doubt they would turn down orders and hold stock for the bureaucratic French to make a decision.

The big question with the EM Analytical contract is whether that will push production beyond 10m or whether it was already included in their plans at the last RNS...

For anyone questioning global demand and whether we are selling everything, it’s worth reviewing the country by country case growth on Worldometer

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The pandemic is still growing in many nations, South America, Africa & the Middle East in particular. We have been supplying over 100 countries since early March, and even at 10m tests per month this equates to supplying ‘only’ 100,000 tests per month per country.

We know the UK have reserved 1.2m per month, so we need 88k test orders per month from the other 99 countries to reach capacity. That’s less than a days worth of testing in most places, nothing at all.

It’s truly mind boggling that the market cap sits at £210m, the global coverage, product quality & execution of NCYT puts it head and shoulders above competitors.

https://www.lr.org/en-gb/latest-news/0526-em-analytical-certified-by-lr-in-just-20-days/

This is the link...and it was released on 26th May!

Indeed, they started advertising the same day shipping on 27th May, one day after the news release from EM Analytical (link below for any who may have missed it earlier). Coincidence or is this the reason for the sudden marketing push?

https://www.lr.org/en-gb/latest-news/0526-em-analytical-certified-by-lr-in-just-20-days/

It would make absolute sense if they are using the incremental supply from EM to enable same day delivery - if this is the case then watch us fly...

It’s coming...!

@Bramley, the first 100k share buy since 25th March (when the price was £1.60 ish), and will be one of largest single trades by value in this share ever - there was a 75k on 15th April at around 4.60 that just beats it...

It was clear from how difficult it was to buy today that something was different with the order book, and the 100k buy explains it. The earlier co-diagnostics comparison was excellent, illustrating how ridiculous our current £200m market cap is. Onwards and upwards from here hopefully!

@Globetrotter, if that was the case then why did the share price retrace from £2.20 to £1 back in Feb / March? Surely if the market knew what the future held the price would have kept going up to £3+? Nothing goes up in a straight line!

Brod, I think you’re comment about the fact that we are advertising next day delivery, and this being a negative, is typical of where NCYT finds itself right now.

The market simply doesn’t believe it is possible that a company that had market cap of £10m back in January could possibly have recurring monthly sales of £80m, people think it’s too good to be true and are looking for any reason to get spooked (even when 3 directors have bought in the last 10 days).

If / when we get confirmation that we are selling all production at a good price, the share price will re-rate considerably. Until then, suspicions will continue.

The biggest clues for me are recruitment, why would you still be advertising new roles if you weren’t selling everything you produced? And also, why would you scale up from 4m to 8m to 10m without justification?

So difficult to say GLR, with us supplying internationally to over 100 countries, and many of those countries still being in the grip of the virus (Latin America, Middle East, Africa), and having huge populations, it's unsurprising that we are selling all kits being produced. The unknown is the sales price & margin, and how this varies by country & distributor.

We know that at 15th April they had hit their target of manufacturing 4m kits per month, and that they are on track to hit 10m by June. So it's fairly safe to assume that May production would be between 5-8m tests, taking the midpoint of 6.5m and multiplying by a prudent sales price per test of £7 (based on the fact GDR are confident they can achieve £8-10 per test this is low), would give May revenue of £45.5m. The max we could realistically hope for IMO would be 8m production at £10 per test, giving £80m revenue.

Either way, it's unreal that the market cap is still sitting at £200m, given companies like EKF diagnostics have rocketed off the back of £10m of sales over 2 months!

Yep I read the same thing Parkez... all good.

Can confirm it’s NT to buy at present for any amount - very unusual for this share

As far as I understand, the non exec who bought yesterday had a declared holding of 91k shares back in 2017 as per the admission doc, but his buy yesterday took his declared holding from 15k to 21k, so there is a query about when he sold the 75k... Bigger picture it's irrelvant, as it's of far more importance that he bought 20000 euros worth of shares at 3.37 a share when four months ago it was 13p! There wasn't the same issue with Graham Mullis & James Wakefield from earlier in the month.

Best I’ve seen the French order book in a long while - could see the comeback continue today ahead of what promises to be an exciting June.

Can’t wait for the final results here, then we’ll see how well aligned DC is with shareholders. Long term obsessives spout so much drivel here, just watch them shouting how undervalued it is when the share price is at 3p in a few months time off the back of a massively discounted placing...

Two very chunky delayed buys this afternoon - 12500 @ 4.35 and then a further 9984 @ 4.38. Next news could come any day, take your pick from;

- FractalDX spin off update (pricing & timing)

- Update on commencement of pred-MAKER project to study the links between Covid-19 and the Kidney's using RENX software

- FDA EUA submission for the Mount Sinai antibody test (submission before the end of May according to the Bio-Techne RNS last week)

- More details on the forthcoming NASDAQ listing - only announced a week ago but I doubt they'll be wasting any time (detail on pricing, amount to raise etc etc).

- FDA Approval for KidneyIntelX

- More partnerships / regulatory progress towards commercial launch

This is a very exciting share which I'm very pleased to have discovered :)

greggreen, that's a very very good point that I hadn't thought about, Primer really are pushing their PR today - great to see and the share price is starting to respond accordingly.