Member Info for shandypants2

the big difference between warpaint and IDP is that War makes a profit and pays a dividend. Last year's £34m rev produced £6m profit - a decent return and giving War a P/E of c25 to justify their share price.

Now i don't always think P/E is a great indicator for a growing company, especially if it is using excess funds to launch new products, which IDP is, however, IDPs current P/E is also c25 and will increase when results are finalised next month as we know profit will go down to c650k.

However, whilst profit is clearly important it is the revenue growth i am most interested in. If this year is c£11m (a decent increase despite all the SD exclusivity issues) and next year has been estimated at £14m. Based on next year a £2 share price seems about right if the company is being valued conservatively at 2 x forward revenues.

The recent Boots and now Tesco deals makes this figure look quite low to me, especially if ST goes into one or both of these in Jan 2019 too. The other big unknown is Prolong sales. For 2018/19 i would expect sales of c£1 to 2m however this is such a big market and there is no competitors if IDP get this right sales could be £10m or more.

Based on the above it is not inconceivable that 2019 rev could be c£20m. If so i think that values the company conservatively at £40m, almost double the current valuation.

I'm happy to hold for 12 months to see.

Roots websites - 3 for 2 offer currently on. Ordered last week and delivered within 24 hours, fantastic customer service.

yes agree, the Boots and now Tesco deals will be transformational for IDP and maybe the penny is now dropping.

Of the UK Health and Beauty Retailers Boots is No1 and Tesco is No2 with SD only No 5 (the other supermarkets are 3, 4 and 6) so this should really give Roots much much exposure. With ST already in Boots Ireland surely it should get into Boots UK when SD exclusivity ends in Jan 2019.

Yes HC has made mistakes - maybe too many products were acquired too quickly, the ASA warning was a concern but doesn't seem to have impacted ST sales, extending the SD exclusivity seems to have been a double edge sword - yes it has enabled Roots to have shelf space and grow but SD has played hard ball with ST (and Stevie K) and this has impacted revenue and profit for 2018, and finally his recent share sell wasn't great timing (still has 34% of company so not too bothered - don't see FeverTree having issues when their founders sell as they have done repeatedly over the last year).

There are still some concerns re the cash position, which are valid, but hopefully year end results will alleviate this.

The last placing was at £2.76 at a time when we had only just launched Roots and Prolong was not available.

Now we have Roots in 3 major UK retailers, ST range expanded and still doing ok (DTC continues to grow - c320k facebook followers) and hopefully Prolong is having an impact in what is a massive market.

If we can get ST in Boots early next year too, before the peak tanning season i think the £14m revenue target will be exceeded by potentially 20% or more.

Finally, Roots if you haven't tried it please do. Definitely makes my care feel thicker. Website has 3 for 2 at moment too and free delivery over £30.

Yes popped into Manchester Boots on Friday (3rd Aug) and no Roots although shelf space is being cleared - will take a week or so before being on shelves but is now available on line.

Superdrug has a big ST promotion so looking good there - although agree the Face range is a bit confusing - is it more a moisturiser than a tanner yet is on the tanning shelf.

Roots in SD going from strength to strength. Now about 10 products on top shelf - 5 or 6 shampoos and conditioners, the mask and 3 sprays.

Don't hold your breath re Stevie K - was meant to be in SD back in March. SD pulled out and no announcement since. Wouldn't be surprised if some stock needs to be disposed to if date of use has expired. Stevie K online is Oz only and has c1k followers so orders must be low. Would be good for IDP to give us an update before Sept

Yes i agree there is much positive news to come - if this reduces cholesterol then hopefully a pharma deal will be transformation, but i still have some concerns re cash.

Last year revenue was next to nothing and cost c£2m. The deals signed this year may take time for revenues to materialise. I know there was a recent placing but that was small and for a specific purpose so i still wouldn't be surprised if an extra placing is required, especially with the recent price increase.

Does anyone know what the cash position is. As at end of year there was c£1.5m

popped into one of Manchester's stores at the weekend and as always had a quick check of IDP's range.

The good news is that the new ST face range is fully stocked, next to the ST self tanner range. It does mean that the tanning self space has been reduced to accommodate the new products but overall space is unchanged. Many other tanners are doing big promotions via SD at the moment and i did notice we have lost the top shelf display which is a slight concern.

Roots continues to go from strength to strength with the new mask conditioner and a couple of sprays added to the 5 or so shampoos and conditioners and are all available on the top shelf.

The Body Glow range also has both he Bum Booster and Glow tubs displayed alongside the moisturisers.

So on the whole progress via SD appears to be progressing well.

Hopefully we will see these in Boots in the coming months.

yes, nice steady rises - hopefully £1.50 soon.

IDP is no longer a 1 product company and the Boots tie up gives clear revenue growth opportunities.

Prolong potential is massive - if they get this rolled out across other countries and are as good at DTC as HC keeps saying then this should be a massive revenue generator.

Roots continues to go from strength to strength so there are a lot more positives than negatives - and there have been quite few negatives over the last 9 months or so!!!

Growth stocks are often valued at 10 times revenue - we are c1.5 so there is much scope for growth. SD exclusivity issues have clearly delayed development and this has had an impact on revenue and profit targets for 2017/18 but these now look resolved. I think the market has over reacted to this short term issue and the longer term opportunities have not been factored in.

agree hopefully the positive in the recent RNS is now being digested and we can get back towards £2.

The Boots tie in for Roots is massive and hopefully should lead to ST from Jan 2019 (when SD exclusivity ends).

The £14m rev target for 2018/19 is quite conservative but based on that using a very conservative 2 x revenue valuation for the company we should be at £2 now (with 14m shares in issue).

We have never been given any revenue numbers for Roots but if we say it will be £1m by year end so ST is c£10m.
Next year i think this could double to £2m in SD alone as it is in more stores and larger shelf space (and it started from zero sales last August so 1st few months would have been low). With 300 plus of Boots largest stores this could generate another £1m quite easily (hopefully more if it gets rolled out into more stores).
Prolong sales are also unknown as it is in an early stage but £1-2m revenue should be achievable as c500 sales a month would generate £100k. Assume ST is unchanged at £10m and we have our £14m.
Now if ST gets into Boots for peak tanning season then these numbers will fly.

This also takes no account of other products e.g Charles +Lee is making decent progress in OZ (although only 2k Facebook follows so assume it is a slow burner) and there should be launches of Headmaster and maybe Enbright will see the light of day in Asia. Plus the recent announced tie ups should also be revenue generators asap (Prolong in Canada could be a big win)

Hopefully we should start getting some positive updates as all these missed targets and profit warnings haven't helped. The timing of HC share sell (not overly bothered as he still has 34%) also leaves a lot to be desired 2 days after the Prolong launch which caused a massive spike and then reversal of the share price.
HC moving from CEO position might be a good thing as although i like his energy he has clearly lost the confidence of many.

IMHO the trading statement is a mixed bag but there is more positive than negative. Many will focus on the profit figure being marked down, and clearly profit is important, but it is only by 350k so i am not too worried. After the update in March if was clear that IDP didn't know who the 2nd half would go due to SD issues so the previous figures were a bit finger in the air. Revenue of £11m is steady but not great. In 2016/17 the 8.9m was made up of £3.1m and £5.7m for the 2 halves. So in 2017/18 it will be £4.2m and c£6.8. For H2 this increase is 19%, whilst in H1 it was 31%. So whilst ok when you consider H2 has Roots and also ST sales in Ireland (neither were in place in H2 2017) it would suggest ST sales are of similar levels at best. The big news that could have been a separate RNS is the Roots tie up with Boots UK. This is massive news as to drive revenues in the UK (IDPs biggest market by far) we need to be in more shops. Roots SD exclusivity ends in July so clearly August is the 1st date that this can happen. This is a great achievement as this product didn't exist this time last year (it's a great product - it's a unisex shampoo so everyone reading this board should be using it!). It also paves the way for ST to go into Boots in Jan 2019 (SD exclusivity ends end of 2018). Again this will massively increase revenues and arguably could justify a re-rating for the share. Other tie ups look promising but these are smaller markets and i assume higher costs (distribution and repackaging etc) so i'm not getting too excited by these, however, Prolong in Canada could be interesting. Other disappointments include no mention of Stevie K (we must have loads of stock as this was due to go into SD in March!!), or Headmaster and again Enbright in Asia. For the profit reduction IDP state this is due to one off costs for new product launches (already known so a poor excuse), stock availability issues with Roots (disappointing as in Feb 2018 we were told focus was on ST and Roots sales to drive H2 revenue - but a one off and now resolved) and surprisingly lower than expected revenue form the US in June. As we are in June now and US is a small part of the operation this is a strange comment. If it relates to Prolong would that contradict the comment regarding consistent sales fro Prolong? Anyway, if analysed in the short term there are concerns (especially profits) but longer term it is very encouraging. We are clearly now a 3 product company and not just ST reliant - and i don't think the market has understood this. We are now in Boots UK so this could drive UK revenue growth for the next few years (get ST in there 2019 and then increase number of stores it is sold in etc - Boots has 2500 stores in the UK). Similarly Prolong can be sold in other regions throughout the next year and via DTC start up costs should be manageable. A mention for Charles + Lee too - now in more stores across Australia so that