Member Info for shandypants2

this year's divi on the current share price is almost 10% - i'll take that. Onwards and upwards from now on - hopefully!!!

looked on Boot.com today. My Lotus has not yet had a review posted. Not a good sign.

Hi Leo thanks for the blog. Good read.

Agree with 2019 numbers - think we will exceed the £5m estimate.

Also has £5m in cash so a £11m valuation looks very conservative to me. Happy to hold

yep struggled to top up this morning, just did so but had to pay 2.15. Still a bargain below 3p IMHO. What I particularly liked about the GB interview was when he was asked about 2019 revenue growth he referred to the 300% H2 growth in 2018 and then said rate of increase for 2019 is following a similar rate, without giving any specifics. This is moving in the right direction and fast - struggling to meet demand is a great position to be in.

Whilst waiting for the YE results (next week at the latest is the rumour) i've just found this online re prolong.

Featured in the sun online in early June and a positive review on a specialist PE website.

Hopefully sells are increasing steadily after a slow start and 2019/20 could really see this product making a big contribution to profits for IDP.

https://www.thesun.co.uk/sun-men/9237953/sex-expert-men-last-eight-times-longer-in-bed-device/

https://prematureejaculation.help/best-premature-ejaculation-products/prolong-review/

I agree this is a great share with massive potential and a really proactive CEO. However, in the short term these warrants (at 1.5p) have had an impact on the share price so it is not quite the win - win as described by GB.

Additional shares at a discount = dilution, so in the short term us shareholders lose.

There are more to come too so this could continue keeping the share price depressed for a while. Hopefully not.

Looking forward to a positive statement tomorrow

are games being played? Double the buys to sells yet price has dropped today.

Just did another small top up and it has been reported as a sell !!!

Anyway, I'm guessing this is taking a little breather and then will have a slow rise in anticipation of a successful FDA decision in late July.

Hopefully £1.40 plus in 4 weeks time

Hi, i agree i'm a little disappointed but not overly surprised (or concerned).

The 2019 numbers were always heavily weighted on the last 3 months and Boots sales. Around Easter and also May (including both bank holidays) IDP and Boots did a very successful promotion but for June the products are back to full price. Not only will this impact sales (but increase margins) but IDP has no historical data to estimate Boots numbers. Even for last 2 weeks of June the discrepancy in estimates could be as much as £250k - assuming we are selling over £1m a month during this peak season.

The fact that we are now in the last week of June and there has been no adjusted guidance from mid year (£14m and £1.5 profit) is massively encouraging IMHO.

Even a 10% ish decline (FinnCap reduced year year to £13.2 and £1.4 after H1 - IDP did not adjust guidance) still would represent a good year and record profit for IDP and should trigger a re-rating.

IDP kicked off their summer sales this week too so this could also impact year end numbers.

Hopefully an update will come this week, or next at the latest.

a few buys starting to appear - first time in a while. It appears stock is difficult to get as a struggled to get a price. Finally done one small top up - my last until results time.

I think this will start rising next week in anticipation of a decent trading update the week after.

Good luck to all LTH - I know 2 people who each own more than 1% of this company!!!

Hi Time, I like your positivity.

Regarding Prolong I am trying to be ultra conservative with my figures - the £100 profit per unit includes advertising/marketing spend as it's all very well having a website but you need to get traffic to go there - and this isn't going to spread via word of mouth (can you image the guys down the pub talking about this great product??).

Also don't forget 20% VAT - so you need to remove £40 from your figures.

Incidentally the 600 units sold in 2 months was across both USA and Oz and this was with marketing and some decent early write ups (mens health etc).

Having said that without marketing we appear to be selling 20 units a week (c$1k a day according to HC) so with marketing this should hopefully double if not triple.. It would be good if the websites started putting people's feedback on there - it's meant to increase staying up to 8 times which is massive. Potentially this could be sold to loads more guys not just those with extreme issues as lets face it who wouldn't want to last a bit longer!

What is not in dispute is that this product should be driving bottom line profit even on pretty average sells.

It will be interesting to see full year figures for Prolong.

Hi, just checked and the trading update arrived on 19th June for both 2017 and 2018 so put that date in your diary. Volumes are painfully low at the moment and IDP really needs some positive newsflow.

On ADVFN it appears ST DTC revenues still going strong - over £30k a day at peak and steady £20k on others. Based on that it's c£170k a week. Over 3 month peak tanning season that's over £2m in revenue.

Also as reported on ADVFN it appears UK DTC roll out of Prolong is close. There is a website - prolongdevice.uk - which appears to be the Oz version being tweaked. Cost is £219 incidentally.

Now at this price I reckon profit to IDP (even after marketing etc) is c£100 a pop. So even on low volumes of 1k units p.a that's £100k to the bottom line. We are already in US and Oz, so near term expansion to say NZ, Ireland and Canada should be quite straightforward. If all countries do an average of 1k units p.a that's over 5k in total and £500k to the bottom line. A decent contribution to 2020 targets I would say on very conservative numbers.

Finally i asked IDP why Body Glow is not in Boots and wondered if SD still had exclusivity. The reply was that it is being considered for Boots. SUPERDRUG only has Pro Tan Moose as an exclusive.

Anyway keep the faith - this is a momentum stock so decent newsflow could see this £1.50 plus by end of month

agree, there was something strange about the price all day - consistently double the buys to sells yet price kept dropping due to small sells. There is buying pressure and eventually this will have to rise.

Liked the fact that last RNS stated lab space had been increased to accommodate LARGE orders.

Can't wait for the next RNS

Also remember a GB tweet when he implied that the next news (in addition to contracts) could be something else i.e. IMHO their testing could be extended for additional uses.

So all looking good here.

Current price may pop again - double the buys to sales on decent volumes yet price held back. I've topped up (again!)

hopefully things will pick up in June as people jostle for positions ahead of the trading statement and hopefully it will be a positive one too.

Noticed Roots has dropped down the best sellers on the SD website recently and has also lost top shelf space in their stores (no doubt a reaction to the loss of exclusivity) which is a little concerning however my local Tesco has just re-stocked so it would appear things are progressing ok on that front.

However, it would appear this H2 is 95% about ST and this continues to perform well.

In addition to the figures it will be good to see plans for 2020. Personally I don't think IDP need any more products they merely need to focus on rolling out the ones they have e.g. Prolong in Europe, ST and Roots outside UK and maybe UK launch of C+L.

Furthermore it would be nice to see the CEO make these announcements rather than HC. I was hoping HC would be taking more of backward step but H1 was all him. Everyone is a bit fed up of his Jam tomorrow statements.

same here, loads of buying pressure ATM and such a good story - still think there is a seller though which is limiting the upside. Got to pop soon IMHO

wow £43k in 1 day via DTC. Even assuming lower figures on other days that could be £200k a week, or c£2.5m over the 3 month peak tanning season.

Incidentally, keeping the positivity going i was in central Manchester this weekend and popped into the main Boots on Market St. The ST display was looking a bit light of stock but there was an assistant re-stocking when i was there. I asked her how it was selling and she said it really well, and it required regular re-stocking. Clearly this was across every product but the new Wonder Serum, the Coconut Mist and the Mousses in particularly were all being re-stocked when i was there. She also mentioned they had recently increased ST orders to prevent them selling out.

This was clearly what i wanted to hear. Sadly the Roots display was less inspiring - a few of the lids we broken which looked terrible, but ST is definitely driving IDP at the moment.

Hi Jam if your comment re 10% variance in estimates is correct (and it seems very logical) then IDPs 2019 targets of £14m rev and £1.5m profit should be no less than £12.6m and £1.35m respectively.

I'm still hoping for £13m (plus) and this would be 20% plus growth year on year which is a decent growth rate.

Looking at my Roots estimates they are clearly a bit high based on H1 so now I, thinking :

Roots £1.5m
Prolong and C+L £500k (very conservative IMHO - hoping for more - HC is meant to be focusing on this area)
ST £11m

So there's the £13m.

I am disappointed we've not had a RNS to boost confidence since H1 results. The Growlase launch and Asda news could have been combined into one and for April sales we could have included a best ever months sales etc (which we clearly must have as revenues are increasing year on year) .

Hopefully this share will pick up leading up to results (usually 3rd week in June) and then a decent re-rating.

For 2019 all 4 core brands will show substantial year on year increases and I can this this being repeated into 2020 so next 18 months for this stock look good.

Roots did £650k H1 (up 252% on H1 2018, which was from zero during that period). This disappointed me as I was hoping for £1m (as H2 2018 was over £700k).

FinnCap has previously estimated £2.7m for Roots this year but I think this is based on decent sales from Tesco and I am not convinced it has taken off here. I think Asda will be similar - £10 is a lot for a shampoo during your grocery shop.

Boots should be doing better as a premium shampoo is more suited here but poor shelf space and lack of promotions may have had an impact.

At a minimum it should do £1.5m (I'm still hoping for £2m). This is based on product extensions, better DTC 9now 27k facebook followers) and higher Boots sales in H2 than H1 plus some contribution from Tesco and Asda.

Think Prolong was doing £1k a day without marketing so that would equate to £350k for full year. H2 marketing kicked in so hopefully sales have increased a bit. Agree Prolong has thus far disappointed - ideal for DTC and this is what IDP are meant to excel at

Whilst FinnCap reduced YE target to £13.2m the last update from IDP was the AGM statement that said earning would be approximately £14m. Surely if the lower target is being used IDP should have informed someone?? As I said I'm still expecting £13m but will accept £12.8m.

The FinnCap revised YE19 target (released on 21/2/19) of £13.2m and profit of £1.5m also sneaked in a lower 2020 target of £15.4m (profit of £2.4m) - previously this was £17.5m and £2.7m profit. Have to admit I didn't notice this at the time.

My estimates for this year are:
Roots - £2m
Prolong (and Growlase) - £500k
C+L - 250k
ST- minimum of £10m (think it did c£9.5m last year without Boots)

Next year with full year retail deals for Roots and ST in the UK and potential country expansion for all 5 brands I think another 20% growth is quite conservative. I think Prolong should be doing £1m plus if combined with a European roll out.

Agree with the cash position - however we did have over £2m in stock though at YE18 (valued at cost price not retail) so utilising this better will help, although this may need to increase due to increased retail deals

I'm hoping for £13m plus but would take £12.8m as a minimum (this is a 20% increase from 2018). Profit close to £1.5m too would be nice (no less than £1.3m - double last year).

Every day without a RNS gives me more confidence we must be there are thereabouts else IDP would need to tell the market.

Boots roll out seems to have gone quite well and the Wonder Serum seems to have been a great success (and is the most expensive ST product) - if that alone sells 1 bottle a day from 1,300 stores that's c £1m to IDP in the 3 month period to results.

I'm pleased that IDP has added a new and better tanner to the range as the brand extensions (face and the new moisturizers, and the sun care range) may be diluting rather than enhancing ST. Body Glow seems a very sensible extension, the others less so IMHO.

Now that Growlase (ex Headmaster) has gone live IDP has 5 brands and all should show decent growth this year and the same should be repeated next year - Boots full year etc for ST.

Prolong should be rolled out to other countries as should Roots too so hopefully 2020 should see both these brands make a decent contribution to support ST growth.

In fact if we hit £13m this year the 2020 targets (£15m ) look very achievable.