Member Info for shandypants2

https://researchlibrary.finncap.com/File/View?file=03108e44-737f-438c-8926-7e228a98cf8a

just re-read FinnCap analysis - I'm staying put until 250p!!!

Whilst revenue increase is encouraging it would appear we are still losing money and another cash call is around the corner IMHO.

first bought into the STX story at 45p and gained on the European roll out. What I have read/heard recently re FDA approval it seems a near certainty to me now so I have been topping up over the last few weeks - all over £1. Did my 'last' one at 109 after a slight dip but then couldn't resist another one last week at 115.4. Have top sliced a bit at 119p a month or so ago so this is not my largest holding but will reward even those buying in now - IMHO.

Current iron tablets are almost useless - difficult for body to absorb etc. Not only will this massively benefit those with iron deficiencies but also those who need an occasional boost e.g. and women in particular during pregnancy/childbirth and also at specific times of the month etc.

Almost no side effects is a massive plus.

CEO recently mentioned that STX has responded to all questions asks by FDA - i.e. there are no obstacles preventing FDA approval

a very tight spread - all the 115.4s are buys - I'm one of them.

BTW CEO mentioned FDA 'date' is 27th July which is a Saturday. So clearly it won't be on this date.

He said decisions are often a few days before or after so if people are trying to time their entry they could miss out.

Next few weeks could be interesting

notice Finncap has £13m 2019 rev split
ST10.9m
Roots 1.6
C+L 0.3
Prolong 0.2

Personally think maybe Roots slightly lower and Prolong slightly higher but shows all products still have much growth potential.
Prolong in particular should be more than double this with a bit of effort and country expansion (now in UK etc). Maybe Prolong growth will happen more by raising awareness via PR than facebook/google ads as this product has previously been featured in the national press. Also positioning it for all guys rather than just extreme PE suffers will help.

in 2020 ST and Roots will benefit from full year trading - ST in Boots in particular.
Even £50 a week (less than 1 ST product a day sold) in just 1,000 Boots stores will generate £1.3m in H1 (and this was 0 in H1 2019).

FinnCap also mentioned that DTC produced record monthly sales in May and June so hopefully this momentum can continue into July and August (peak holiday season).

Finally noticed that both SD and Boots have a special ST bag of products on sale at the moment for £25 (3 tanners and a mitt). Good idea from IDP - even if we only get £10 all products appear to be lesser sellers so will still be making a profit. Keeps retail sales momentum going too - think Boots had an advantage card promotion last weekend too which always drives footfall.

As per point 4 below - impressive H1 numbers for 2020 are a must against such poor ones for 2019 (when IDP lost £400k - so £1.9m profit in H2).

unfortunately not. It just means the 0.6m has been 'won' but has not will recognised until H2 as the contract may be forward dated, or the work won't commence until H2 etc. Clearly progress is being made but from a low starting position. c£2m rev and still loss making so the £9m valuation is not low (IMHO).

Pretty dire week since results - although the shares IMHO are looking undervalued, especially if 2020 earnings are taken into consideration, however, there will always been someone to counter that (one product company, UK centric, owner likes to sell, previous missed targets etc). So we are where to are.

To push things on maybe IDP need to do the following:

1. get a positive RNS out - e.g Prolong is now being sold in UK (which it is), and hopefully supported by some effective marketing, and ST expansion continues as is in 227 ASDA stores (which it is), and roots shelf space upped in Boots (which it is) etc
2. For Sept results give an accurate (and hopefully increased) YE2020 forecast - I think 9 months extra of Boots could add £2.5m rev alone so the £15.4 figure looks conservative.
3. Accompany this with a positive forward looking statement - July and Aug rev will surely be record levels with Boots included for first time so say it. Do something to kick start Prolong sells etc (a tie in with say Ann Summers or LoveHoney seems sensible to me etc). Maybe international expansion too - ST is currently only sold DTC in US etc.
4. smash H1 2019 numbers - as this was so poor a 50% plus increase is definitely possible for H1 2020
5. Maybe consider a 2020 dividend. A 5p dividend would only cost c£700k out of a profit of £2.5m (hopefully)

All the above will slowly start having a positive impact on for the company

FFS Vox markets

sorry not sure why link didn't show - it's on ********** - STX Q and A

****************************/articles/q-a-with-shield-therapeutics-stx-ceo-and-co-founder-carl-sterritt-20a15ea/

good interview a few days ago by CEO. FDA approval seems a given and US partners lined up. Interestingly US market also allows DTC. US patent is to 2035 too. All looking positive

another director share purchase, now the 3rd in the last month or so

Another positive sign IMHO

topped up (again) today. Struggled to buy 5k so reduced order so it could be filled yet still the price doesn't rise. MM games ??

and the 2 household name contracts are in the price range £35k to £210k as stated in the RNS.

Largest announced order is £200k I think so does that mean we have another that is £210k??

All positive regardless of the amount - momentum building nicely

I think a good H1 will really show that IDP has turned a corner - after all 2019 just met the company's own estimates! However, after a disastrous H1 2019 it was pretty impressive that this was achieved at all.
Anyway, as H1 2019 was so poor H1 2020 should increase substantially - just having 6 months of Boots will add a minimum of £1m rev. Also with DTC improved (was a big issue this time last year) this could add 0.5m. So an extra 1.5m without doing much.

Conservative numbers are below - £5.7m would be a 46% increase.
Ideally if we could get a 50% increase the market would have to sit up and notice IDP - that's £5.85m so only 150k more than my conservative numbers below . Thoughts welcome

H1 2018 H1 2019 H1 2020
ST 4.1 3 4.5
Roots 0 0.65 0.8
others 0.1 0.25 0.4
TOTAL 4.2 3.9 5.7

Hi now that 2019 numbers are in the 2020 estimates look quite conservative. FinnCap has £15.4m and £2.4m PBT.
Just having a full year of ST in Boots may add £2m of revenue without any additional marketing spend.
My conservative estimates are below - and these include quite a lot more marketing spend (from £2.5m to £3m) - and have a profit of £2.5m. Sorry numbers should be in a table format

2018 2019 2020 (est)

Revenue 10.7 13 16
Product cost 4.6 5.5 6.9
Gross Profit 6.1 7.5 9.1

Marketing 2.3 2.5 3
Admin & Wages 3.1 3.5 3.6

PBT 0.7 1.5 2.5

What these don't include are:
1. significant increase in ST outside UK - numbers have dropped alarmingly in Oz and US, just getting back to 2017 levels would add £1m. Also in S.Africa now so maybe this will add rev. Maybe further deals in UK too
2. Prolong country expansion (have upped marketing as assume this will kick off properly this year, but not upped revenue much)
3. Potential expansion of C+L
4. New ST product - in 2018 coconut mist was introduced and 2019 Wonder Serum. Both were best sellers. Could do similar in 2020
5. Keeping marketing costs conservative will immediate impact bottom line. If 2019 expenditure maintained for 2020 this will add 0.5m profit
6. GrowLase - assume minimal revenue, but happy to be surprised

So After FinnCap have a chat with IDP I think Sept numbers will be increased. Based on ultra conservative P/E of 10 £2.4m profits is c£1.70 per share. If profit forecast is increased so should share price.

Whilst most investors have lost faith in HC ultimately the numbers will do the talking

I think lack of increase in the share does show the damage HC has done to the company over the last 2 years and in particular selling 1m shares on results day last year whilst talking up the company in interviews.
A few on ADVFN have stated that a P/E of 10 is not an unreasonable valuation - I personally would disagree as a growing company you would expect a higher valuation - a min of 15 and maybe even 20 (look at Fevertree - P/E of c50 and this despite the recent 40% drop). 2 shares today (DISTIL and SOS) are both heavily down but SOS is still valued at £17m on rev of £4m and making a huge loss and Distil is valued at £6m on rev of £2m and 100k profit (and was valued at over 10m a month or two ago!).

On pure growth prospects and P/E I am surprised this isn't edging up to nearer £1.50. A decent end of year statement will help and this should show momentum from end of YE19 moving into first few months of 2020 numbers.

If we hit 2020 profit (£2.4m) on a P/E of 10 then IDP shares will be valued at £1.70.

I personally think these numbers might be increased too by FinnCap in the coming months as the £2.4m doesn't look overly stretching - I think £2.6 or 2.7m is more realistic as will have 12 months of Boots (only just over 3 months this year) and hopefully Prolong should start making a better contribution too. I will do some number crunching and publish later.
Keep the faith!!

with today's announcement and assuming £1.4m profit with current share price we are valued at a P/E of c11 and a forward (2020) P/E of c6.5. Massively undervalued but loads of sellers.

Could do with an operational update prior to Sept results regarding things like Prolong expansion, Asda (is this a trial or not?), LaseGrow, C+L etc. Lots of positives yet HC suddenly doesn't want to talk the company up.

Cash position of £1.7m is really positive and IDP has no debt.

yes good set of results and profits in line (c£1.5m) is fantastic - as some say revenue is vanity, profit its king.

Also great to see margins (which I feared might be squeezed with retail promotions) and cash (previous a big concern) have improved greatly.

£13m rev is a decent return especially after a pretty disastrous H1 (£3.9m) and was also my minimum expectation.

With a full year of Boots, improved DTC etc H1 this year should be a lot better. ST expansion overseas, Prolong rollout etc and possibly Roots (which seems to have stalled a bit) should also make the current 2020 numbers (£15.4m rev and £2.4m profit - Finncapp) look very conservative. I would have thought £17.5m is a more realistic aim

we are now in July and our year end finished on 30/6.

Results are imminent (according to investor relations) - but in the few days until they are announced I am relaxed and encouraged as no adjustment to guidance has been issued.

Therefore IDP's results must be c£1.5m profit (with a 10% flex) else a RNS would have to have been released to the market.

I feel after the heavy criticism (mainly justified IMHO) that HC has received over the last 18 months or so he was desperate to produce eye catching figures. Hopefully he will. In Sept 2018 when 2018 results were announced the share price was just over £2 based on 2019 guidance (it dropped suddenly due to HC selling 1m shares!!).

So if we hit 2019 guidance £2 does not seem an unrealistic price.

Currently a £1.4m profit would give the company a P/E of a little over 10 which is ridiculously low.