Member Info for shandypants2

this has been hit hard over last year or so with growth slowing (mainly due to SD exclusivity), launch dates being repeated missed and of course HC's selling (at the 2 main price spikes) - he still has 27% before anyone comments that he's cut and run.

However, it is still a growth stock and has a clear pathway for the next 2 years. All 4 current brands will grow both this year and next, although I now think we will miss the YE £14m revenue target.

Last year we did £10.7m rev (c£9.5m ST, 1m Roots, 100k Prolong and 100k C+L) .

If we can continue to grow by say 20% that's £12.8m. Whilst less than target that's ok.
It would appear the Boots and Tesco take up of Roots is slightly slower than I was hoping and Prolong delays will impact sales. Similarly we know ST was down in H1 so the Boots increase will not be as significant.

I'm now expecting £2 - 2.5m rev for Roots (was hoping for £3m), and £250k each for both Prolong and C+L (was hoping Prolong would be a lot higher but it appears it is still not being marketed). All 3 brands will produce over 100% growth which is very encouraging.

ST is the main brand by a country mile. I'm hoping for a minimum of £10m here but it is difficult to estimate how quickly it takes off in Boots. Obviously being in 1,300 Boots stores should produce massive uplift over say a 2 year period.

I think 2020 targets are c£18m.

Roots will continue to grow (assume >£1m growth) as should a full year of Prolong plus it being rolled out in more countries (say +750k) and a full year in Boots should give ST an extra £2m so we are not a million miles off before we factor in overseas expansion (which has almost ground to a standstill). Hair/Headmaster and C+L should also be contributing reasonable amounts by 2020.

So overall I see more positives than negatives and am happy to hold. The current share price values the company at less than our current revenue (2019 level) which is so low. Metro Bank even after the fall today has a market cap about 5 v revenue. A M.Cap of 2X rev for IDP wouldn't be unreasonable IMHO

to my knowledge there are 4 shampoos and 1 conditioner.

Shampoos are for:
1) sensitive scalp
2) deep clean/greasy hair
3) anti dandruff
4) coloured hair

Seems a pretty sensible differentiation to me. What's the problem??

FinnCap is the house broker - they get paid by IDP.

So they have merely raised their H2 rev due to poor H1 figures. There is no evidence in this RNS how the extra 10% growth will be achieved considering the previous H2 estimate (£8.6m) already would have factored in Boots initial order and some internal growth for all 3 other brands (Roots, Prolong and C+L). I'm not saying they can't be achieved but it is clearly more of a stretch than it would have been with say c£5m H1 sales (as I was expecting before AGM announcement).

C+L probably had revenue of £100k last year so a 50% increase in H1 is encouraging but peanuts in the grand scheme of things.

The reason I mentioned poor Oz sells is because no replacement retailer has been mentioned - HC is the first to blow his own trumpet when there is good news but suddenly goes very quiet when milestones are not met or when things go wrong. No news means there is no replacement.

Incidentally people have lost confidence with HC. This year is mirroring last when in Feb 2018 we were on target for YE figures and then 3 weeks later we weren't.

A lot is riding on Boots success. In HC's defence he won't know until late May/early June if ST has been an immediate success at Boots. If it is £2 seems a fair price - if not???

I'm disappointed in this update. Yes IDP has potential and H2 will be better but this is always a 'jam tomorrow' share and at some point HC must deliver.

So sales are £3.9m (that's less than the £4.2m H1 last year) yet 3 of our 4 brands are growing.

So ST sales are down by c£1m I estimate. This isn't all down to DTC , an area IDP has stated how successful they are - why was this stopped earlier?? As we now have 3 years of DTC purchase data we have every customers email address - surely contacting them directly with offers reduces the need to do facebook advertising.
I suspect ST sales aboard must be very low too, especially in Oz (which would have been peak tanning).

Prolong was meant to recommence marketing before xmas and yet release today says they are in position to restart so yet another small delay.

So to meet YE targets we need c£10m sales for H2 and we achieved £6.5m this time last year.

Roots could do £1.5m and Prolong and C+L should do a minimum of £0.5m. That's £8m for ST then against c£5.5m last year.
Boots will add at least £2m so it is possible but it's a big ask. I'm happy to sit and wait.

that's not true - Ireland sales are included in the UK figure - i asked.

It is sold in Boots Ireland so Boots UK wouldn't be putting it in 1,250 stores if ROI sales were not ok. In fact when it first went into Boots ireland it was c50 stores and they soon increased it to 65 (they only have c80 stores) due to encouraging sales levels.

ST is currently in 100 stores in Ireland as it is also sold in 2 other pharmacies.

ST Uk sales (90% of revenue) have suffered due to SD exclusivity but Boots Uk is the No1 beauty store in the UK and SD is only 5th so it shows how important the Boots tie up will be.

nice to see some positive comments and a blue day for a change.

Half year will be similar to last year (c£4.2m) which is disappointing, but already factored into share price.

Of the 4 brands 3 will definitely see a H1 improvement:

Roots should hopefully continue it's upward momentum and should be over £1m rev for the 6 month period.
Prolong wasn't sold this time last year so any sales is a positive - based on AGM comment should be c£150k to £180k for period and C+L should see an uplift as now in more stores and has a larger product range.

So ST and SD exclusivity issues must have had an impact. It is still in all 780 SD stores and DTC sales appear to remain strong so hopefully dip is temporary. Maybe Face range taking some of ST's core shelf space hasn't helped too.
Boots for ST remains a game changer.

I did ask investor relations a few weeks ago regarding Prolong marketing and Headmaster. Former will re-commence in a 'few weeks' (expect they've missed the xmas milestone by a week or so) and Headmaster is still due for a soft launch in Q1 2019 (so i'm guessing March 2019).

Whilst i'm not happy - HC only dumped 1m shares in Sept and not 2 as has been stated. He still holds 27% of company so hasn't walked away as others have stated (predominantly on ADVFN).

All 4 brands (ST, Roots, Prolong and C+L) will see year on year growth this year which is clearly a positive however we need to hit year end targets to get this share moving upwards.

Probably have to wait until June statement to see if this is the case.

ASOS (and other online companies, with the exception of IDPs DTC) are negligible so ASOS news today will have minimal impact.

It does highlight how tough trading conditions are generally. However, when people cut back on big expenditure (holidays, meals out etc) smaller expenditure on things to make you feel and look good often rise - so hopefully self tans for xmas party season etc haven't been impacted.

Noticed Roots own website is now doing free delivery for all orders over £20 (was £30). As the 3 SKU bundle can be purchased for £25 via this route (£30 via Boots online) this is a good deal. So fellow investors if you haven't tried Roots here's you opportunity.

checked out my local big Tesco and there is Roots on a mid shelf above the Alpecin (nearest rival product).

Only 3 SKU (sensitive shampoo, conditioner and spray) but a lot of each - at least 10 bottles.

Whilst I'm not expecting Tesco to be a game changer for Roots clearly the more shelves it is on the better. Initial purchase will have been a minimum of £50k too to stock the 400 plus stores.

Boots is the biggie but there are so many competing products and shelf space is so populated that I struggle to find Roots even when I'm looking for it. Hopefully it is slowly gaining momentum as Boots is the place to be.

Hopefully H1 figures will breakdown Roots revenue as hopefully it will be c£1m for 1/2 year.

Just my thoughts but SD has a very young customer base so Roots and ST may not be the best match, although clearly both have sold well previously. With Face now added at SD and taking shelf space away from other better selling SKUs this may have partly contributed to SD reduction in orders. The Face packaging is confusing too, doesn't look like a ST product and lacks the wow factor on the shelf.

yes, back in stock at Boots. The 3 SKU bundle (£30 rather than £35 if purchased individually) has proved popular online at Boots (was c50 out of 1,500 of all hair bestsellers) so I think the out of stock appears to be due to high sales volumes rather than anything else.

Even with a few days out of stock the bundle is still in the 80s out of 1,500 products so it must have been popular. Hopefully it will start moving back up now. Don't think the bundle discount is available instore so this may be causing a spike in online sells. Don't appear to be any stock issues in store.

is that good news that Boots online has sold so many that they are now temporarily out of stock or does this mean that IDP has failed to keep up with order demand?

Hopefully a positive , especially as the £30 bundle of 3 products is still 53 out of 1,500 in the best selling All Hair category.

Let's hope stock is replenished soon.

sold out - £300 quid from a total of £12k invested. Thought they had turned a corner a year or so ago when production started increasing but alas the 1,000 barrels a day has never been achieved and the much hyped waterflood has had minimal impact.

T & T seems to be sitting on oil but Range has struggled to get enough out to make a profit and the Somalia adventure and Landau etc has cost all long term investors dear.

Good luck to anyone still holding

pull your finger out HC. As per October year end report this was due pre Christmas 2018.

So c3 weeks left.

Life Sciences part of business has been beset with delays (Hair/headmaster was due to be launched in US in 2017 and rest of world during 2018 - now US launch is Q1 2019) but hopefully now HC is focussing on this full time I am expecting some improvement, if only to meet the company's own milestones.

If H1 revenue is flat we need Prolong to start selling in decent quantities.

This share is drifting on low volumes we could do with a little good news - please!!

All looking good, thanks for the update.

Boots online the Roots bundle of 3 products is number 52 out of over 1,600 hair products which is a fantastic achievement.

In the Boots shops although we have 5 SKUs on shelves they are split across 2 shelves and the plan white packaging is not the most eye catching - we are competing with Alcepin (black) and Plantur 39 (green) and both look more appealing on the shelf to shoppers.
In SD the 9 Roots SKUs all on the top shelf definitely make more of a statement.

Incidentally IDP has no connection with Amazon - although products are sold via this channel they are via a 3rd party (so they must be buying from IDP initially).

Prolong is being sold via DTC in US and OZ but is not being actively marketed. It sold £100k in May and June 2018 as per recent accounts.

A fault was discovered (manufacturing issue not design) and I think this effected the battery (e.g. turned off in error etc) so a new manufacturer has been found who is cheaper. Meant to kick off new marketing campaign with new device in Dec (so hopefully next few days/weeks).

HC said at AGM Prolong is selling c£1k a day without any marketing and described it as IDPs dark horse.

As HC is now focusing on this and Hair/Headmaster hopefully we should see a good H2 and hopefully it should be sold in more countries too. I'm sure this was originally sold via Boots in the UK a few years ago so it should already have regulatory approval (or whatever is required, here). Guessing it didn't sell too well as not the type of product that will be purchased over the counter.

I'm hoping for £500k revenue from Prolong for this year

Sean you are possibly right, however, i see the revenue and P/L going hand in hand - there is a perception in the market now that IDP just don't hit targets based on a revenue and profit warning only 3-4 weeks after H1 results last year when HC re-iterated full year targets.
The market don't forget that in a hurry.

As a quick summary 2017 results had gross profits of £5.6m with other costs (marketing,wages etc) of £4.6m leaving a net profit of just over £1m.
2018 had gross profits of £6.1m but costs increased to £5.4m so net profit of just under £700k. The increase in costs was predominantly wages and admin as marketing costs declined by 400k.

I have asked IDP and they have no plans to increase headcount so hopefully wages will be similar. As IDP has also said they will not be doing any significant new launches in 2018/19 hopefully admin costs will also be similar (or possibly less).

So on £14m sales using a conservative 50% gross margin that's £7m gross profit. If costs remain at £5.4m that's your £1.6m profit.

Now before i get jumped on perhaps marketing costs may have to rise now we are in Boots. Potentially, however savings can be made elsewhere e.g marketing to £300k facebook followers is almost cost free if done via email and with less new launches maybe admin costs will decline too. Prolong sales could up the gross margin % considerably too - suspect that is c80%.

So all i'm saying is that if we hit revenue the profit will follow accordingly.

this share is currently unloved and always gets hit hard after any not good news e.g. H1 sales will be flat as mentioned at AGM.

Whilst this is clearly not good news and the SD exclusivity has hurt ST sales in particular, people do need to think longer term. The Boots and Tesco tie ups are massive for such a small company so it is not all doom and gloom.

Just look at 2018 sales and our 4 products.

Of £10.7 revenue this was split approximately

ST - £9.5m
Roots - £1m
Prolong - £100k
Charles + Lee £100k

Now in 2018/19 does anyone seriously think all 4 products won't increase sales?

Even if we don't quite reach our £14m target I think conservatively the following will be achieved
ST - £10.5m (due to Boots in peak tanning)
Roots - £2.5m (expanding all the time and now in 3 retailers)
Prolong - £0.5m (selling £1k a day without any marketing. Marketing due to kick off again in Dec 2018)
Charles and Lee - £0.25m (increased range and now in more stores too )

That's almost £14m.

All 4 could exceed these estimates. Boots is an ideal store for IDP products. SD has a very young demographic whilst Boots is more middle aged and is much bigger too. It might take a little time for some of IDP products to be established there but clearly we have taken the first step.

A few more retail tie ups, Exec share buys, and Prolong re-marketing on time would all be positives too for the share price.

great find - Roots was intended as a 3 stage process rather than a mere shampoo so it's good to see the bundle doing so well (especially as it means customers are buying all 3 SKUs).

Where's Gregpeck whenever there's a bit of good news??

So Joseph Bayer now has over 116k shares.

Despite what Greg keeps posting Haris still has over 4m shares (27% of company)

Other shareholders from the board as per the accounts published in Oct 2018 :

Rodney Turner 51K
Kieran Callan 11k
Ross Andrew 15k

Greg please give it a rest now. I thought you had sold out anyway.

Clearly IDP has made many mistakes over the last year or so but ST is soon to increase its retail units by over 150% and Roots in just over a year is now in c1,600 stores across 3 retailers, great progress in such a short space of time.
It is difficult to argue these are not positives.

You continued negativity on here and especially ADVFN is getting tiring now.

The online sales for Boots are almost irrelevant the c400 odd stores will account for 95% of sales. Incidentally SD online has Roots shampoo and spray are in the top sellers list, but that would be a positive story.

Also whilst HC's sales have been hugely disappointing there have not been multiple sales (as you have claimed) , there have been two. He still owns 27% of the company so he's hardly walking away.

For your own mental health - let it go. After all only a few months ago you were overly positive about the same company you now continually deramp.

By the way Greg i suspect you may also be Croasafc (or similar name) from last year who also reported on online sales. You gave us a really positive write up re the AGM and then admitted a few weeks later you had sold out due to the SD exclusivity extension that was never released via an RNS. If so you and HC are not that dissimilar