Member Info for shandypants2

looks like this is now taking orders (at $399 a pop) so wouldn't be surprised to see a US timed RNS this afternoon. Was meant to launch end of Q1 2019 so only a week or so late.

Perhaps that explains the price wobble this morning - sales v buys don't justify the fall.

Topped up a few at 99p

I've been impressed with a few bigger Boots stores - a couple of the smaller ones have just added ST to shelves without any fanfare - similar to Roots.

New Serum definitely seems to be selling well and is most expensive by quite a bit (£29.99). Making this exclusive to Boots seems a great idea.

Less sure on a few of the product extensions (face and the ST moisturiser etc) but time will tell

This was meant to go live Q1 2019 so clearly a delay (hopefully only a few weeks).

Website is ready (growlase.com) but when you order just says its sold out. Info one website, particularly about clinical research is quite 'lite' so doing a quick google I found a few interesting things. Main one is that there are already a number of similar helmets on the market.
https://www.infrared-light-therapy.com/laser-caps-hair-growth/

One of the 3 alternative helmets is being sold for £749 so the IDP version will undercut it considerably.

It is not a cure for baldness but does appear to help people with minor hair loss or thinning hair and there does seem to be some science to back this up.

only saw the dragon's den aspect - 1 minute pitch. Very impressive and was well received. Tie up with Boots was mentioned and in discussions with 2 European companies too. No mention of previous China roll out

The stand was very busy too with investors so was unable to get to the front and ask questions. Main 4 I wanted to ask was:

1) current cash position - assume Boots tie up will require a fair bit of marketing spend. Do we have it?
2) Cash burn - when is breakeven anticipated
3) China - is this now dead or is there still a presence there (if so how small and is it growing)
4) Boots tie up - how many stores, if any? Roll out plan e.g. stand alone product placement or just put on shelves

If anyone knows any answers to these please let me know

ironman - you can only buy it if you know it exists. Being instore would increase awareness of the product.

You can already buy it online via CPT's website but most people don't know the product exists. A marketing budget is required too to drive footfall - either instore or online

been in 2 Boots this week (one medium and one large) and good to see ST on the shelves ready for hopefully a period of decent weather.

The smaller store had about 6 or 7 different products on medium shelves whilst the larger one had about 15 and a decent display including the top shelf. The new Serum seems to be a hit and only a few left in stock but not sure about some of the other product extensions - £15 for a moisturiser seems a bit pricy and I'm still to be convinced by the Face range (and the packaging is horrible). Happy to be proved wrong

whilst clearly good news my concern is that there is no mention of how many stores it will be sold through and when. This is pretty standard in such announcements. Boots has c2,500 UK stores although about 1/2 are quite small. They have c500 'big' stores and this product would be ideal in these. However, CPT will need to evidence they have sufficient stock and a process to replenish it. Maybe there is still work to do in this space

The Company today announces that as part of its assessment the Board has concluded that there has been a substantial misdeclaration of VAT, going back over several years. The final value of the misdeclaration has still to be established, but currently the figure stands at approximately £12.0 million. The Company also expects that the VAT accounting policies they intend to adopt may have an impact on profitability going forward. Above is from RNSThis may be due to a little known VAT exemptions re sports club block bookings of sports facilities. There are restrictions e.g. club must be FA affiliated etc so if Goals has applied this to all block bookings it would account for the VAT misdeclaration. VAT reclaims are permitted over 4 years so HMRC can reclaim the last 4 years.Pretty poor internal accounting if that is the case.Sorry for all LTH - this should not be failing

after a week or so of steady climbing the share price has declined for the last 2 days. No great surprise if a little short term profit taking, but on both days trading volumes are reasonable and buys significantly outweigh sells.
Maybe MMs are a little short but surely the buying pressure should have a positive impact on the share price.
GrowLase (previously HeadMaster) should be launched in US soon - we were previously told this was end of Q1, which is this week.
Website doesn't look finished yet (growlase.com) so presume this date will slip, as per HC's norm. Would be good to get some revenue contribution in this year's figures though from it - initially this was due to be launched in 2017.

decent buys coming in now - 25k shares at 113 shows someone must be reasonably confident

Both ST (4 SKUs) and Roots (3 SKUs) have cropped up on Asda's website.

I've now had photo confirmation that these are now in a number of Asda stores too. Clearly just a bit of a trial at the moment (guessing reason for no RNS) and no marketing to support this but a clear sign that IDP continues to move in the right direction.

Asda are the 3rd largest Health & Beauty Retailer in the UK -
https://www.retaileconomics.co.uk/top-10-retailers-health-and-beauty

So IDP is now in 1,2,3 and 5th .

Boots is key of course - next 3 months is massive for IDP.

Incidentally since xmas my local Tesco had c30 bottles of various Roots now down to less than 10. So selling c 2 bottles a week. Not great but across all Tescos that will equate to c1,000 bottles a week.
Not insignificant
#

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-47543985

Saw this on BBC and unfortunately it's not OPTI.

Should OPTI' not be pushing CholBiome to be available in the NHS in the UK and be getting it's partners to so similar in other countries.

This is groundbreaking but seems to be moving so slowly. Where's out PR dept? Surely we should be having similar or even better coverage - CholBiome can be purchased now

sorry to all LTH.

I remember Somalia. We had oil - all went mad, then suddenly it was just water.

How can that happen??

It appears same has happened here.

both ST and Roots are now available via ASDA online. Not sure if this is also in stores but it clearly shows that now exclusivity with SD is finished others deals will follow. Can only be a good sign. An RNS would be nice!!

that was the infamous profit warning RNS 3 weeks after 1/2 year results.

Hopefully there won't be one this year.

As the Boots ST sales will dictate H2 performance in IDPs defence it will take until late May/early June to see if ST has done well in Boots and if the £14m target has been reached

previously a figure of £1.5m has been mentioned for Boots initial order.

That seems reasonable to me based on 13 SKUs (as per online offering), 10 units of each at £8 (allowing for Boots to make 100% mark up plus VAT so selling at £20) across all 1,305 stores equates to £1.35m. Obviously units purchased may vary per store etc but think we are in right ball park.

Incidentally if profits do come it at c£1.5m based on a reasonably conservative PE of 15 that equates to a price of £1.60 per share, valuing IDP at c£22m.

For comparison notice Water Intelligence (WATR) has similar revenues and profits to IDP and that is valued at c£50m so it's all in the growth expectations. IDPs 2020 numbers (18m rev and profits of £2.5m) don't look overly taxing if ST takes off in Boots. Based on this profit figure and PE of 15 then each IDP share would be valued at £2.50

So there are more upsides than downsides IMHO

whilst there are more positives than negatives in yesterday's statement, and I am positive overall for IDP there are still a few continuing concerns with this company IMHO.

Firstly why is our CEO Kieran Callan not leading these statements. He doesn't even add any comments. HC needs to take a back step and let KC do his job. A lot of people have lost trust in HC so taking a back seat with the market would not be a bad idea.
Secondly - do we state that 6 weeks sales are up 37% and then 36% later in document - I know this is minor but mistakes like this should not happen.

Anyway the positives are the increased 6 weeks sales and the increase in margins. We sold £6.5m H2 last year so if this 36% continues we will be £8.8m and we know that the initial Boots purchase for ST is c£1.5m so the £10m needed to reach YE targets is definitely achievable.
Margins increasing to 58% is also great - well done.

Negatives are the cash position - only £700k left from a £4m raise only just over a year ago. This will need to be managed carefully. With this in mind it seems somewhat strange that IDP bought an additional 1% of ST from the creators (think we own 93% now). Surely best to keep this money in the bank for now.
A loss of 400k is also a concern especially as the marketing spend increased by 400k in the same period and during a period when DTC sales were so poor. Although they've put a positive spin on it I suspect mistakes were made here and the company was slow to react when sales were poor and kept throwing money at it.

Other points that concern me slightly are continued delays - Boots is now mid March so a 2 week delay, the Hair Helmet has still not launched and no date and Prolong has still not got the UK approval (although it has previously been sold in the UK) . I'm also slightly concerned with Prolong sales - £650k is ok but I was hoping for £1m. We are now in Boots and Tesco and based on figures now provided we must have sold £700k in H2 last year and it is a non seasonal product.

So in conclusion I am more positive that YE figures can be achieved but the underlying issues re HC over promising and over spending etc still remain.

If we do hit say £13m plus sales and c£1.5m profit then these are a steal at this price. £1.50 would still be quite a conservative valuation

ST now on Boots.com. 13 SKUs all tanning - none of the product extensions.

Hopefully this will sell well and quickly!!!

Big display in my local Boots advertising Skinny Tan launch - saying it's available via click & collect from 1st Feb. Went onto Boots.com and can't see Skinny Tan listed yet but it at least shows Boots are taking this seriously and not just putting it on the shelves.

Roots seems to be slowly building more momentum. A new shampoo and conditioner launched for curly hair and also a styling putty (good product extension). Seems to be in a slightly better position in Boots now so that's a good sign too. Tesco shelf stock is lower so must be selling there too. Finally Facebook now up to almost 25k. All good signs IMHO.

I presume no additional RNS as this was announced back in Nov and repeated in the Jan update. So effectively IDP is merely doing what it said it would do, and it has already told the market.

Good to hit a timescale though.

Need ST to take off quickly at Boots if we are going to get anywhere near YE targets.